Threshold Effect of Foreign Exchange Reserve on Economic Growth ——Based on the Perspective of Financial Development
MA Ye-chi1, FU Jing-hui2
1.School of Economics, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130117, China; 2.Monetary Policy Department, People’s Bank of China, Beijing 100800, China
Abstract：
The paper takes major developed countries and emerging-market countries and regions of the world as research objects, and analyzes the impact of foreign exchange reserves on economic growth in different financial markets with the threshold panel model. The result shows that for all countries, the financial market could boost their economies at some certain level, but could restrain economic growth when above certain level. For emerging-market countries or regions, the growth of foreign exchange reserves has a positive effect on economic growth at a merely low level of the financial market. For developed countries, the higher the level of financial market development is, foreign exchange reserves have more positive impact on economic growth. In addition, the East Asian financial crisis has a bigger effect in emerging-market countries than in developed countries, but the global financial crisis in 2008 is just the opposite.
MA Ye-chi, FU Jing-hui.Threshold Effect of Foreign Exchange Reserve on Economic Growth ——Based on the Perspective of Financial Development[J] Economic Survey, 2016,V33(6): 72-77
2016 
