Abstract：
This paper empirically analysizes of the relationship between the credit market interest rates and economic fluctuations by VAR model. The results of the study indicate that: (1) credit market interest rates on investment and consumption are in a negative and obvious impact with certain delay. And the impact on credit market interest rates from investment and consumption is very limited. (2) Investment fluctuations play a major role on output cycles. Output cycles have an impact on investment and consumption fluctuations but to a limited extent. The degree of investment fluctuations affecting consumption fluctuations is far greater than the latter on the former. Policy proposal made on these conclusions.
2012 
