Abstract：
Forecasting monetary demand function accurately is the key to implementing monetary policies effectively. The authors chose the complete cycle of economic decline, depression, recovery and prosperity from 1997 to 2007, conduct cointegration analysis and error correction of the different elasticities of monetary demand factors of our country (disposable income, one-year deposit rate, stock earnings ratio, expected inflation rate) in the four phases of the cycle. It is found that i〖BP)〗In the long term there is a stable cointegration relationship between each demand factor and the broad monetary demand in the fluctuation. In the short term, different factors play a different role of adjustment in the dynamic monetary demand in different stages. The adjustment function of expectational factor in the recovery phase is obvious and interest rate plays a noticable role of adjustment in the phase of prosperity, which provides some reference for the construction of the monetary demand function in the new economic cycle since 2008.
LI Yan-yan, CHANG Jing-yu.An Analysis of the Elasticity of Chinese Monetary Demand Factors in Economic Fluctuations[J] Economic Survey, 2011,V28(5): 151-155
2011 
