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    经济经纬 2018 Issue (3) :82-89
    产业经济 最新目录 | 下期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
    经济波动对产能利用率的耦合性分析:基于中国省级面板数据的实证
    冯伟
    东南大学 经济管理学院,江苏 南京 211189
    The Analysis of Coupling Between Economic Fluctuation and Capacity Utilization: An Empirical Study based on Chinese Provincial Panel Data
    FENG Wei
    School of Economics & Management, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China
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摘要 构建数理模型发现,经济波动会对产能利用率产生影响,两者总体上呈现出顺周期特征。运用1999—2014年的省级面板数据进行实证检验,研究发现:总体上来看,经济波动和产能利用率在我国产业发展中具有耦合性或顺周期的作用特征,即经济波动和产能利用率之间存在着协同关系。进一步通过分样本回归发现,对于劳动密集型、资本密集型和金融危机之前等的产业发展而言,经济波动与产能利用率之间存在着耦合关系,而对技术密集型行业以及金融危机之后的产业发展,这两者之间则存在着背离或逆周期关系。这意味着在治理产能过剩的过程中,需要理性客观地看待经济波动对产能利用率的影响。
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冯伟
关键词产能利用率   经济波动   顺周期   逆周期     
Abstract: By constructing a theoretical model, it is found that economic fluctuation influences capacity utilization and both show procyclicality. Based on the provincial panel data in China from 1999 to 2014, this empirical study finds that in general, economic fluctuation and capacity utilization shows coupling characteristics and procyclicality. In other words, economic fluctuation and capacity utilization act in coordination to each other. A further analysis of separate samples reveals that there is coupling relationship between economic fluctuation and capacity utilization in the labor-intensive, capital-intensive industries and the industry development before the financial crisis. On the contrary, for technology-intensive industry and the industry development after the financial crisis, the relationship is a deviation or counter-cycle one. This means that during the course of overcapacity governance, a rational and objective view should be given to the relationship between economic fluctuation and capacity utilization.
KeywordsCapacity Utilization   Economic Fluctuation   Procyclicality   Counter-Cycle     
收稿日期 2018-05-10; 接受日期 2018-05-10;
基金资助:国家社会科学基金青年项目(15CJL039);江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究重点项目(2016ZDIXM001);东南大学优秀青年教师教学科研资助计划(2242016R30017);中央高校基本科研业务费基础扶持立项项目(2242017S20030)
作者简介: 冯 伟(1981— ),男,江苏常熟人,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,主要从事产业经济学和国际贸易学研究。
引用本文:   
冯伟.经济波动对产能利用率的耦合性分析:基于中国省级面板数据的实证[J].  经济经纬, 2018,3: 82-89
FENG Wei.The Analysis of Coupling Between Economic Fluctuation and Capacity Utilization: An Empirical Study based on Chinese Provincial Panel Data[J]  Economic Survey, 2018,V35(3): 82-89
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