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    国家级城市群建设能否促进城乡协调发展——基于双重机器学习的经验证据
殷志高, 李恒
河南大学 经济学院,河南 开封 475004
    Whether National Urban Agglomeration Construction Promote the Urban-rural Coordinated Development: Empirical Evidence Based on Double Machine Learning ——Empirical Evidence Based on Double Machine Learning
    YIN Zhigao, LI Heng
School of Economics, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China
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摘要 选取2006—2022年中国283个地级及以上城市数据,根据国家级城市群发展规划获批构造准自然实验,使用双重机器学习方法考察国家级城市群建设对城乡协调发展的影响。研究发现:国家级城市群建设能够缩小城乡发展差距,其中推动公共服务共享、促进农业技术进步、提高农业市场潜能是国家级城市群建设促进城乡协调发展的重要路径。异质性分析表明,发达型、多中心、长江流域国家级城市群建设具有更强的协调发展效应,且城乡发展差距程度会诱致国家级城市群建设产生“雪中送炭”的包容性效果,但当其超过一定阈值,国家级城市群建设可能会引发城乡发展差距进一步恶化。拓展性分析发现,国家级城市群建设的城乡协调发展效应具有“空间同频”的溢出特征,另外,国家级城市群建设还有利于缩小城市之间经济差距,发挥同步推进城乡和区域协调发展的政策效果。研究结论能够为进一步发挥城市群经济增长效应、促进城乡协调发展提供理论依据和实践参考。
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殷志高
李恒
关键词： 城市群   城乡协调发展   二元经济结构   空间溢出   双重机器学习     
Abstract： Drawing on data of 283 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2006 to 2022, this study constructs a quasi-natural experiment based on the approval of national urban agglomeration development plans and employs the double machine learning method to examine the impact of national urban agglomeration construction on coordinated urban-rural development. The results show that the construction of national-level urban agglomerations can narrow the gap between urban and rural development. Among them, promoting the sharing of public services, fostering agricultural technology progress and improving the potential of the agricultural market are important paths for the construction of national-level urban agglomerations to promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas. The heterogeneity analysis indicates that the construction of national urban agglomerations that are developed, polycentric and located in the Yangtze River Basin tends to have a stronger effect on coordinated development. Moreover, the degree of urban-rural development can gap induce the construction of national urban agglomerations to produce an inclusive effect that is akin to “bringing coal to Newcastle”. However, once this gap exceeds a certain threshold, the construction of national urban agglomerations may potentially lead to a further deterioration of the urban-rural development gap. The expansion analysis reveals that the urban-rural coordinated development effect of the national urban agglomeration construction has the spillover feature of “spatially homogeneity”. In addition, the construction of the national urban agglomeration is also conducive to narrowing the economic gap between cities, which has the policy effect of simultaneously promoting the coordinated development of urban-rural and regions. The conclusions provide theoretical guidance and practical reference for further exerting the economic growth effect of urban agglomerations and promoting the urban-rural coordinated development.
Keywords： Urban Agglomeration   Coordinated Urban-Rural Development   Dual Economic Structure   Spatial Spillover   Double Machine Learning     
收稿日期 2025-03-19; 接受日期 ;
基金资助:国家社会科学基金重点项目(23AZD020)
作者简介: 殷志高(1997— ),男,河南邓州人,博士研究生,主要从事城市与区域发展研究;李恒(1971— ),男,河南唐河人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事城市与区域发展研究。
引用本文:   
殷志高, 李恒.国家级城市群建设能否促进城乡协调发展——基于双重机器学习的经验证据[J].  经济经纬, 2025,5: 75-87
YIN Zhigao, LI Heng.Whether National Urban Agglomeration Construction Promote the Urban-rural Coordinated Development: Empirical Evidence Based on Double Machine Learning ——Empirical Evidence Based on Double Machine Learning[J]  Economic Survey, 2025,V42(5): 75-87
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