贸易政策不确定性对我国出口升级的影响研究

摘要作为全球最重要的双边关系之一,中美经贸摩擦及其引致的贸易政策不确定性,引发了对中国出口转型升级的担忧。利用2000—2013年企业-产品层面微观数据和1999—2019年行业层面数据,通过双重差分模型识别了贸易政策不确定性对我国制造业出口升级的影响效应。研究表明,贸易政策不确定性下降显著促进了以出口技术复杂度衡量的企业出口升级,且对沿海地区企业、中小微型企业、非国有企业的出口技术复杂度有正向促进作用。基于影响机制的研究发现,贸易政策不确定性下降可通过鼓励企业创新和缓解融资约束来提升出口技术复杂度。进一步地,贸易政策不确定性下降还可以通过下游产业关联显著促进本产业出口技术复杂度的上升,对于劳动、资本密集型行业及高、低市场集中度行业均是如此。但对于高市场集中度行业,贸易政策不确定性下降会通过上游产业关联抑制出口技术复杂度的提升,对低市场集中度行业的影响则与之相反。

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关键词：贸易政策不确定性出口技术复杂度双重差分融资约束产业关联

Abstract： As one of the most important bilateral relations in the world, Sino-US economic and trade frictions and the uncertainty of trade policy have aroused concerns about the transformation and upgrading of China's exports. Based on the enterprise-product level micro data from 2000 to 2013 and the industry level data from 1999 to 2019, this paper uses the double difference model to identify the effect of the decline of trade policy uncertainty on the export upgrading of China's manufacturing industry. The study shows that the decline of trade policy uncertainty significantly promotes the export upgrading of enterprises measured by export technology complexity, and has a positive effect on the export technology complexity of coastal enterprises, small and medium-sized micro-enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises. Based on the research of influence mechanism, it is found that the reduction of trade policy uncertainty can increase the complexity of export technology by encouraging enterprise innovation and alleviating financing constraints. Furthermore, the decline of trade policy uncertainty can also significantly promote the increase of export technology complexity of the industry through downstream industrial linkages, for labor-intensive industries, capital-intensive industries and industries with high and low market concentration. However, for high market concentration industries, the decline of trade policy uncertainty will restrain the increase of export technology complexity through upstream industrial linkages, while the impact on low market concentration industries is the opposite.

Keywords： Trade Policy Uncertainty Export Technological Sophistication Difference-in-difference Model Financing Constraints Industrial Relationship

收稿日期 2021-09-14; 接受日期 ;

基金资助:北京市社会科学基金项目(20JJB010)

作者简介: 李宏兵(1986— ),男,河南信阳人,副教授,博士生导师,主要从事国际贸易与国际投资、国际贸易与劳动力市场研究;孙丽棠(2000— ),女,甘肃定西人,硕士研究生,主要从事国际贸易与劳动力市场研究;文磊(1989— ),男,四川仪陇人,讲师,博士,主要从事国际贸易理论与政策、发展经济学、劳动经济学研究。文磊为本文通讯作者。

引用本文:

李宏兵, 孙丽棠, 文磊.贸易政策不确定性对我国出口升级的影响研究[J]. 经济经纬, 2022,2: 57-67

LI Hongbing, SUN Litang, WEN Lei.A Study on the Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty on China's Export Upgrading[J] Economic Survey, 2022,V39(2): 57-67

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2022/V39/I2/57

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