高铁开通、资源错配与我国工业产能过剩

摘要首先从理论上分析了高铁开通、资源错配与工业产能过剩三者之间的关系,并且借助CES生产函数,通过数理模型加以说明。然后利用2003—2017年我国30个省级区域相关面板数据,采用Tobit随机效应模型进行了实证检验。结果显示:(1)高铁开通能够提升我国工业产能利用率,缓解工业产能过剩。并且,高铁开通对我国工业产能利用率的提升幅度呈先下降后上升的趋势,即呈现出U形特征。然而,无论劳动力错配还是资本错配,均会加剧工业产能过剩。(2)分区域来看,东部地区每增加一条高铁线路,工业产能利用率将上升4.32%,而中西部地区每增加一条高铁线路,工业产能利用率将上升6.15%。基于高铁时速差异,每增加一条“G”开头的列车线路,工业产能利用率将上升5.94%,而每增加一条“D”开头的列车线路,工业产能利用率将上升5.67%,二者差距不大。(3)利用Bootstrap方法进行中介效应检验发现,高铁开通可以有效降低劳动力错配和资本错配,从而缓解我国的工业产能过剩程度。

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	韦朕韬
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关键词：工业产能过剩工业产能利用率高铁开通劳动力错配资本错配

Abstract： This paper firstly theoretically analyzes the relationship among the opening of high-speed railway, resource mismatch and industrial overcapacity, and illustrates it through mathematical model with the help of CES production function. Then, using the relevant panel data of 30 provincial regions in China from 2003 to 2017 , this paper conduct an empirical test with the Tobit stochastic effect model. The results are as follows: (1) The opening of high-speed railway can improve the utilization rate of industrial capacity and alleviate industrial overcapacity in China. Moreover, the increase in the utilization rate of industrial capacity in China caused by the opening of high-speed rail shows a trend of decline at first and then an upward trend, that is, showing a U-shaped feature. However, both labor and capital mismatch will exacerbate industrial overcapacity. (2) From a region point of view, the industrial capacity utilization rate will increase by 4.32% for each additional high-speed railway line in the eastern region, and by 6.15% for each additional high-speed railway line in the central and western regions. Based on the speed difference of high-speed railway, the industrial capacity utilization rate will increase by 5.94% for each additional train line at the beginning with “G”, while for each additional train line beginning with “D”, the utilization rate of industrial capacity rate will increase by 5.67% . And there is not much difference between them. (3) The Bootstrap method is used to test the mediating effect. It is found that the opening of high-speed railway can effectively reduce labor and capital mismatch of labor and capital, thus alleviating the degree of industrial overcapacity in China.

Keywords： Industrial Overcapacity Utilization Rate of Industrial Capacity The Opening of High-speed Railway Labor Mismatch Capital Mismatch

收稿日期 2021-01-04; 接受日期 ;

基金资助:教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目(18YJC790147)

作者简介: 韦朕韬(1989— ),男,安徽马鞍山人,博士,讲师,主要从事区域经济学、产业经济学研究;张腾(1990— ),男,黑龙江牡丹江人,博士研究生,主要从事应用经济学研究。

引用本文:

韦朕韬, 张腾.高铁开通、资源错配与我国工业产能过剩[J]. 经济经纬, 2021,5: 80-90

WEI Zhentao, ZHANG Teng.The Opening of High-speed Railway, Resource Mismatch And Industrial Overcapacity in China[J] Economic Survey, 2021,V38(5): 80-90

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2021/V38/I5/80