中国-东盟《服务贸易协议》促进了双边服务贸易吗？

摘要基于联合国服务贸易数据库的双边贸易总量和分类数据,采用基于倾向得分匹配的双重差分模型(PSM-DID)评估了《中国-东盟全面经济合作框架协议服务贸易协议》对中国与东盟国家双边服务贸易的影响。研究表明:从总量上看该《协议》的实施并未有效地促进双边服务贸易的发展。分类估计显示:该《协议》促进了中国自东盟国家的版税和许可服务以及个人、文化和休闲服务的进口,但对建筑服务的进出口以及保险服务的出口却产生了负面作用。该《协议》的开放承诺与比较优势、服务贸易提供方式不匹配可能是造成这种情况的重要原因。

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	李凌
	匡增杰

关键词：服务贸易区域显示性比较优势双重差分

Abstract： Based on the data of UN Trade in Services Database, this paper estimates the bilateral trade effects of ASEAN-China Agreement on Trade in Services by Propensity Scores with Matching-Difference in Difference (PSM-DID) model. The results show that the agreement has not effectively promoted the bilateral trade in services viewed from the total amount. The estimation of categorized data shows that the agreement has increased the import of royalties and license services, as well as personal, cultural, and recreational services. However, it has negatively affected the import and export of construction services, as well as the export of insurance services. The main reason might be the mismatching between the opening commitments of the agreement and the comparative advantages, the supplying mode of the specific service.

Keywords： Trade in Services Regional Revealed Comparative Advantage Difference-in-Difference

收稿日期 2018-05-10; 接受日期 2018-05-10;

基金资助:教育部人文社会科学基金项目(14YJCGJW005);上海市教委科研创新项目(15ZS090);上海海关学院科研创新团队项目(2313111)

作者简介: 李凌(1979— ),女,河北张家口人,博士,讲师,主要从事国际区域经济一体化研究;匡增杰(1980— ),男,江苏扬州人,博士,副教授,主要从事国际区域经济一体化研究。

引用本文:

李凌, 匡增杰.中国-东盟《服务贸易协议》促进了双边服务贸易吗？[J]. 经济经纬, 2018,3: 67-74

LI Ling, KUANG Zeng-jie.Does ASEAN-China Agreement on Trade in Services Promote Service Trade Between China and ASEAN Countries?[J] Economic Survey, 2018,V35(3): 67-74

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2018/V35/I3/67