基于最优货币区视角的古丝绸之路地区人民币区域化研究—

摘要以古丝绸之路为研究对象,首先明晰了人民币区域化与货币一体化之间的辩证关系。其次,用最优货币区VAR实证模型为检验工具,采用1995—2015年的样本数据对古丝绸之路上的各个国家间五种冲击相关性的大小进行了逐一的计算。结果发现区域性因素在五种冲击中占有主导地位,说明古丝绸之路货币一体化程度较高,满足人民币区域化的经济条件,符合最优货币区理论的经济要求,适合推广人民币的使用与流通。本研究可以对古丝绸之路背景下人民币区域化及国际化的早日实现以及“一带一路”战略的成功做出有益的贡献。

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	李勇
	袁晓玲

关键词：一带一路人民币区域化古丝绸之路最优货币区 VAR 一带一路人民币区域化古丝绸之路最优货币区 VAR

Abstract： Taking ancient Silk Road as the objective of study, this paper firstly clarifies the dialectical relationship between regionalization of RMB and monetary integration. Moreover, it uses the VAR model based on the optimal currency areas to examine the correlation among shocks of the countries on the Silk Road, using the sample data from 1995 to 2015. It is found that the dominating factor is the regional one, which means the degree of monetary integration on the Silk Road is high and this area has met the economic condition of the optimal currency areas. Thus it is suitable for the use and circulation of RMB. At last we give some useful policy recommendations in hope that our study can contribute to the success of the regionalization and internationalization of RMB in addition to the success of the policy “one belt and one road”.

Keywords： One Belt One Road Regionalization of RMB, the Silk Road Optimum Currency Areas VAR One Belt One Road Regionalization of RMB, the Silk Road Optimum Currency Areas VAR

收稿日期 2017-05-11; 接受日期 2017-05-11;

基金资助:国家社会科学基金青年项目(14CJL017)

作者简介: 李勇(1971— ),男,山西绛县人,博士研究生,主要从事区域经济学、产业经济学研究;袁晓玲(1964— ),女,陕西周至人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事区域经济学、产业经济学研究。

引用本文:

李勇,袁晓玲.基于最优货币区视角的古丝绸之路地区人民币区域化研究——以欧亚十国为例[J]. 经济经纬, 2017,3: 55-61

LI Yong, YUAN Xiao-ling.The Study on Regionalization of RMB on the Silk Road Based on the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas ——Taking Ten Countries from Euro-Asian as Examples[J] Economic Survey, 2017,V34(3): 55-61

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2017/V34/I3/55