我国货币政策传导的动态变化与新常态下调控优化

摘要借助可变系数的结构VAR模型,考虑外生冲击的波动性,对 1996—2016我国货币政策传导的动态变化进行了分析。结果显示,随着我国经济逐步进入新常态,货币冲击对GDP的短期和中期影响显著降低;比较而言,货币冲击对通货膨胀的影响要明显大于对经济增长的影响;利率变动对我国经济发展会产生较明显的负向冲击,但总体波动幅度不大。我国货币政策传导变化的主要原因在于我国经济结构等方面的深刻变化。

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	徐亚平
	王蕊

关键词：货币政策传导脉冲响应分析 TVP-SV-VAR模型

Abstract： Through structural VAR model with the variable coefficients, this paper takes into account the volatility of exogenous shocks and deeply analyzes the dynamic changes of China’s monetary policy transmission from 1996 to 2016. Studies show that as China’s economy gradually steps into the new norm, the short-term and medium-term impact of monetary shocks on GDP is significantly reduced. At the same time, the impact of monetary shocks on inflation is significantly greater than that on economic growth in comparison. On the other hand, changes in interest rates will have an obvious negative impact on China’s economic development, but the overall volatility is not great. China’s monetary policy transmission changes are largely due to the profound changes in multiple aspects such as China’s economic structure, social financing structure and the imbalance between the real economy and fictitious economy.

Keywords： Monetary Policy Transmission Impulse Response Analysis TVP-SV-VAR Model

收稿日期 2018-09-18; 接受日期 2018-09-18;

基金资助:安徽省社会科学规划重点项目(AHSKZ2017D01);国家社会科学基金重大项目(11&ZD011)

作者简介: 徐亚平(1967— ),男,安徽合肥人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事货币金融理论与政策研究;王蕊(1981— ),女,安徽合肥人,博士研究生,讲师,主要从事金融统计研究。

引用本文:

徐亚平, 王蕊.我国货币政策传导的动态变化与新常态下调控优化[J]. 经济经纬, 2018,5: 151-157

XU Ya-ping, WANG Rui.Dynamic Changes of China’s Monetary Policy Transmission and Regulatory Optimization Under the New Norm[J] Economic Survey, 2018,V35(5): 151-157

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2018/V35/I5/151