Abstract：
Through CMS model, this paper analyzes the influential factors of our country's grain import fluctuation after the accession to the WTO. The results show: (1) The import gravity is the main factor to the fluctuation of our country's grain import, and the structural effect also has great influence on it. (2) During the transition period of joining the WTO, the import gravity was the main source of the growth of our grain import; during the wandering period, the structural effect by the changes of world grain market became the main cause of the import fluctuation of our country. (3) Since the financial crisis, the import gravity, together with the structural effect, have been stimulating the increase of our grain import, but both the market structure effect and commodity structure effect are not significant. It is necessary to strengthen the macro management of grain import, to stabilize the import source and to adjust the import variety structure of grain, and to speed up the perfection of our country's technical measure system in grain trade.
2015 
