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Economic Survey

	2021 Vol.38 Issue.5 Published 2021-09-10

	3	The Spatial Effect and Influencing Factors of Industrial Agglomeration In China
		ZHANG Yue, LI Tingting
		Economic agglomeration has become a universal feature of economic growth at present stage, and it plays an important role in the development of China’s regional and urban economy. First of all, this paper, based on the panel data of China’s cities, reveals the spatial effect of industrial agglomeration in China’s cities. Secondly, this paper establishes the empirical analysis framework of comparative advantage strategy, new economic geography, economic policy factors and industrial agglomeration , and uses the dynamic spatial panel model for empirical test. There are following empirical results: (1) In the time dimension, China has significant advantage, general advantage and potential advantage. In terms of spatial distribution, the industries experience a high concentration from 2000 to 2017, and show a trend of spreading from the core area to the surrounding areas. (2) In the spatial dimension, industrial agglomeration has obvious spatial correlation, and there is significant spatial spillover effect among cities. (3) The influencing factors of industrial agglomeration are multiple sources. The factors of comparative advantage strategy, new economic geography and economic policy are the reasons for the forming of industrial agglomeration. At the same time, there are direct and indirect effects among the influencing factors, that is, industrial agglomeration is easily affected by perip heral economic development.
		2021 Vol. 38 (5): 3-11 [Abstract] ( 704 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1174KB] ( 1039 )

	12	Spatial Effects of Environmental Regulation, Regional Pollution Transfer and Technological Innovation in the Yellow River Basin
		ZHAO Shuai, HE Aiping, PENG Shuoyi
		Based on the spatial panel data of 79 cities in the Yellow River Basin and the intermediary of regional pollution transfer, this paper analyzes the mechanism of environmental regulation on the “local-neighboring” spatial effect of technological innovation. The are following empirical results: Firstly, the relationship between environmental regulation, technological innovation of local and neighboring areas shows inverted “U” features, and the adjacent area effect continues to be significant in a long-distance, indicating the necessity and scientific nature of the implementation of ecological protection and high-quality development strategy in the Yellow River Basin. Secondly, with the improvement of the intensity of local environmental regulations, polluting industries will undergo regional transfers. In the short term, the undertaking of neighboring industries will increase their income levels and promote technological innovation, but it will affect the regional development in the long run, resulting in the suppression of neighboring technological innovation. Thirdly, the realization of the overall high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin requires the central government to carry out top-level scientific design. The green assessment indicators are not only achieve the goal of ecological protection, but also conducive to technological innovation.
		2021 Vol. 38 (5): 12-21 [Abstract] ( 707 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1426KB] ( 953 )

	22	A Study on Coupling Coordination and Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Urban Land and Water Resources Utilization Efficiency in China
		ZHU Lijuan, ZHANG Yang, ZHANG Gaiqing
		Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2003 to 2017, on the basis of measuring the utilization efficiency of urban land and water resources, this paper uses the Coupling Coordination Model to analyze the coordination, contradiction and the spatial-temporal differentiation characteristics of the two resources utilization efficiency. And the Moran index model is also used to analyze the spatial correlation and spatial agglomeration characteristics of coupling coordination degree. There are following findings: (1) The comprehensive utilization efficiency of urban land and water resources in China generally shows a slow upward trend, but the efficiency values are not high. The comprehensive utilization efficiency of land resources shows the spatial pattern of Eastern>Northeast>Western>Central. And the comprehensive utilization efficiency of water resources shows the spatial pattern of Eastern>Western>Central>Northeast. (2) The coupling coordination of urban land and water resources utilization efficiency is in the general coupling coordination stage, and the land resource efficiency lag is the main type. The spatial-temporal patterns are significantly different, showing the spatial distribution pattern of “East>West>Northeast >Central”. The eastern region is in a good coupling coordination stage, and the northeast, central and western regions are all in the average coupling coordination stage. (3) The coupling coordination degree of urban land and water resources utilization efficiency in China shows a significant positive spatial auto-correlation, which is mainly concentrated in “high-high” and “low-low” areas,with a trend of polarization.
		2021 Vol. 38 (5): 22-30 [Abstract] ( 581 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 3193KB] ( 908 )

	31	Expansion of College Enrollment and Entrepreneurship of Rural College Students
		JIN Zhenzhong, YAN Binjian, XIONG Hu
		On the basis of constructing the theoretical model and based on the data of 2016 China Labor Force Dynamic Survey (CLDS), this paper studies how the enrollment expansion policy affects the entrepreneurial behavior of rural college students and its transmission mechanism, and tries to analyze the possible consequences. The results show that after the implementation of the college enrollment expansion policy, the average entrepreneurship rate of rural college students has increased by 5%, and the impact of college enrollment expansion policy on rural college students’ entrepreneurial behavior has regional, gender, family background and time dynamic heterogeneity. The reason why the college enrollment expansion policy stimulates the entrepreneurship of rural college students is that the impact of the university enrollment expansion policy on the labor market leads to a low rate of return on education for rural college students. Although the rate of return on education of rural college students is still significantly positive after the enrollment expansion of colleges and universities, the policy of enrollment expansion of colleges and universities does improve the support of rural college students to the view of “Useless of Study”.
		2021 Vol. 38 (5): 31-40 [Abstract] ( 622 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1357KB] ( 901 )

	41	The Transfer of Rural Labor and Improvement of Farmland Efficiency from the Perspective of Disequilibrium
		SUN Xuetao
		Based on the panel data of 1682 counties from 2002 to 2017, this paper uses a Spatial Econometric Model to analyze the impact of rural labor transfer on the efficiency of farmland. It is found that the transfer of rural labor force has a positive effect on the efficiency of agricultural land, and the transfer of rural labor force also has a non-equilibrium effect, that is, the transfer of rural labor force will promote the efficiency of agricultural land in rich counties, but it will not affect the efficiency of agricultural land in poor counties. The impact of rural labor transfer on farmland efficiency will also be restricted by terrain differences. Rural labor transfer in plain areas can not only achieve factor transfer but also improve efficiency, while rural labor transfer in mountainous areas can only achieve factor transfer. According to the research conclusion, this paper puts forward the following three policy recommendations. First, promoting the transfer of rural labor force to improve the efficiency of agricultural land use. Second, the constraints of topography should be taken into account when we improve the efficiency of agricultural land. Third, the spatial spillover effect of rural labor transfer should be considered in the process of rural labor policy formulation.
		2021 Vol. 38 (5): 41-50 [Abstract] ( 570 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 3291KB] ( 558 )

	51	A Study on the Influencing Factors of the Trade Efficiency of China and RCEP Partner Countries Based on the “3D” Framework of New Economic Geography
		WANG Yong, LI Peng
		Trade efficiency is an important way to influence the trade growth between China and RCEP partners. Referring to the “3D” (Density, Distance and Division) framework theory of new economic geography and on the basis of analyzing the influence mechanism of trade efficiency, this paper uses the panel data of 2000-2019 to build a Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model to measure the export efficiency and import efficiency of China and RCEP partners. And based on the “One-Step Method” Inefficiency Model, this paper empirically analyzes the effects of density, distance and segmentation on export efficiency and import efficiency. The results show that the export efficiency and import efficiency are heterogeneity between China and RCEP partner countries, and the import and export potential is huge, in which the import potential is greater than that of the export potential. The increase of economic density of RCEP partner countries is conducive to promoting China’s export efficiency, but not conducive to import efficiency. Urbanization has a significant negative impact on China’s import and export efficiency. Transportation infrastructure has a significantly positive impact on China’s import and export efficiency, and the impact is stronger after the 2008 financial crisis. Communication infrastructure helps to improve the efficiency of China’s import and export. Free trade agreements have a positive impact on China’s import and export efficiency, and the efficiency of partner governments can significantly promote China’s export efficiency and have a time-lag effect on import efficiency. Finally,the policy suggestions are put forward from the aspects of increasing the density, shorten the distance and reducing the division.
		2021 Vol. 38 (5): 51-60 [Abstract] ( 712 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1305KB] ( 1793 )

	61	“Belt and Road Initiative”, Corporate Strategy and Enterprise Investment
		QIANG Guoling, XU Huijie
		Based on the data of A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2018, this paper takes “Belt and Road Initiative” as the natural experiment and uses the Double Differential Method to investigate the internal mechanism of the impact of the “Belt and Road Initiative” on enterprise investment. The study found that “Belt and Road Initiative” , as an economic cooperation initiative, significantly increased the investment level of enterprises supported by the initiative by mitigating the risks of foreign investment, providing a large number of investment opportunities, and reducing the cost of “going out”. After a series of robustness tests, the conclusion is still valid. Further research shows that corporate strategy plays an intermediary role in the impact of “Belt and Road Initiative” on corporate investment. The proposal of this initiative improves the capital market environment and encourages enterprises to implement more active strategies, thus increasing corporate investment. In addition, this paper conducts a sub-sample regression according to the difference of enterprise nature and institutional environment, and the results show that the impact of “Belt and Road Initiative” on enterprise investment is more significant in non-state-owned enterprises and regions with high degree of marketization. In a word, this paper examines the impact of “Belt and Road Initiative” on enterprise investment from the perspective of corporate strategy, supports the positive economic effect of the initiative, and has certain enlightenment significance to the strategy of Chinese enterprises “going out” strategy.
		2021 Vol. 38 (5): 61-70 [Abstract] ( 631 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1169KB] ( 700 )

	71	A Study on the Relationship Between “the Integration of Manufacturing and Producer Service” and Carbon Emission Efficiency
		LI Lin, ZHAO Heng
		The paper measures the integration level of manufacturing and producer services (“Two Industries”) and carbon emission efficiency in 30 provinces and cities of China from 2003 to 2017, and empirically tests the relationship between them. The results show that during the study period, the integration level of manufacturing and producer services shows an upward trend as a whole and presents the heterogeneous features in three regions from “East-Middle”, “West” to “East-Middle-West”. China’s carbon emission efficiency is low and shows “East-Middle and West” polarization among regions. No matter at the national level or the three major regional levels, the integration of manufacturing and producer services has a significant positive impact on carbon emission efficiency, and this impact has a marginal decreasing tendency. And the integration of manufacturing and traditional or emerging producer services can improve carbon emission efficiency, among which the integration with traditional producer services plays a more important role.
		2021 Vol. 38 (5): 71-79 [Abstract] ( 864 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1168KB] ( 1799 )

	80	The Opening of High-speed Railway, Resource Mismatch And Industrial Overcapacity in China
		WEI Zhentao, ZHANG Teng
		This paper firstly theoretically analyzes the relationship among the opening of high-speed railway, resource mismatch and industrial overcapacity, and illustrates it through mathematical model with the help of CES production function. Then, using the relevant panel data of 30 provincial regions in China from 2003 to 2017 , this paper conduct an empirical test with the Tobit stochastic effect model. The results are as follows: (1) The opening of high-speed railway can improve the utilization rate of industrial capacity and alleviate industrial overcapacity in China. Moreover, the increase in the utilization rate of industrial capacity in China caused by the opening of high-speed rail shows a trend of decline at first and then an upward trend, that is, showing a U-shaped feature. However, both labor and capital mismatch will exacerbate industrial overcapacity. (2) From a region point of view, the industrial capacity utilization rate will increase by 4.32% for each additional high-speed railway line in the eastern region, and by 6.15% for each additional high-speed railway line in the central and western regions. Based on the speed difference of high-speed railway, the industrial capacity utilization rate will increase by 5.94% for each additional train line at the beginning with “G”, while for each additional train line beginning with “D”, the utilization rate of industrial capacity rate will increase by 5.67% . And there is not much difference between them. (3) The Bootstrap method is used to test the mediating effect. It is found that the opening of high-speed railway can effectively reduce labor and capital mismatch of labor and capital, thus alleviating the degree of industrial overcapacity in China.
		2021 Vol. 38 (5): 80-90 [Abstract] ( 840 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1198KB] ( 1210 )

	91	A Study on the Impact of the Open Innovation Based on M&A and Executive Compensation Contracts
		ZHENG Yajun, CUI Yongmei
		Taking Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2017 as research objects, this paper empirically tests the impact of the open innovation based on mergers and acquisitions on executive compensation contracts. It is found that the open innovation through M&As can significantly improve the amount of executive compensation and the pay-performance sensitivity. The reduction of innovation risk and the improvement of innovation output play an intermediary role in the influence of open innovation based on M&A on executive compensation contract. Further study shows that the effect of open innovation based on M&A to improve executive compensation is more obvious in state-owned enterprises, while the effect of improving compensation performance sensitivity is more obvious in private enterprises. In addition, in areas with a high level of marketization, open innovation based on mergers and acquisitions has a more significant impact on executive compensation level and pay performance sensitivity. The conclusion of this paper not only enriches the research on the decision mechanism of executive compensation contract from the perspective of innovation, but also has a certain guiding significance for the formulation of differentiated innovation incentive mechanism.
		2021 Vol. 38 (5): 91-100 [Abstract] ( 618 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1182KB] ( 1236 )

	101	Patent Administrative Protection, Key Technology Innovation and Total Factor Productivity Growth of Enterprises
		GUO Yanyan, WU Fuxiang
		Based on the panel data of Chinese A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2008 to 2018, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of patent administrative protection on key technology innovation and total factor productivity growth. The study shows that, on the whole, strengthening the administrative protection of patent rights is beneficial to the key technological innovation and total factor productivity growth of enterprises. The sub-sample results show that strengthening the administrative protection of patent rights plays a more important role in promoting the key technological innovation and total factor productivity growth of state-owned enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises and low-tech enterprises. The analysis of the influence mechanism shows that patent administrative protection promotes key technological innovation by attracting foreign direct investment, thus further improving total factor productivity.
		2021 Vol. 38 (5): 101-110 [Abstract] ( 604 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1193KB] ( 1581 )

	111	Controlling Persons’ Foreign Residency Rights and Over-investment ——Evidence from China’s Private Listed Companies
		LUO Changqin
		This paper takes the private listed companies controlled by natural persons in Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares from 2004 to 2018 as the study objects to test the impact of the actual controller’s right of abode abroad on over-investment. The study shows that the right of abode abroad aggravates the over-investment behavior of enterprises, and the free cash flow is the intermediary path of the influence of the right of abode abroad on over-investment. The test of regulatory effect shows that the separation of the two rights induces and strengthens the “tunneling” motivation of the actual controller, and the higher degree of separation of the two rights aggravates the impact of the right of abode abroad on over-investment. However, paying higher cash dividends can reduce the free cash flow of enterprises for over-investment, and the higher cash dividend policy alleviates the impact of overseas residence rights on over-investment.
		2021 Vol. 38 (5): 111-120 [Abstract] ( 510 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1178KB] ( 874 )

	121	Financial Asset Allocation ,Management Power and Auditor Choice
		ZHANG Huiqin
		This paper takes Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2019 as the research samples to study whether and how the financial asset allocation of entity enterprises affects the choice of auditors. There are following findings: (1) The financial asset allocation of entity enterprises affects the choice of auditors.The mechanism analysis shows that the holding of financial assets increases the agency cost, and the board of directors tends to choose high-quality “top ten” firms to supervise. (2) The influence of financial asset allocation on auditor selection is also regulated by management power. In management-leading companies, the ability of the board of directors to employ high-quality auditors to supervise is weakened. And the regulatory effect shows a large cross-sectional differences. The weakening effect of management power is obvious under the circumstances of weak main business profitability, low degree of marketization and lower analysts’ attention. The results show that the strong profitability of the main business, good market environment and high analyst attention can effectively restrain the self-interest behavior of the management and make up for the governance risk caused by the excessive power of the management in the corporate governance level.
		2021 Vol. 38 (5): 121-130 [Abstract] ( 659 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1173KB] ( 1079 )

	131	The Impact of Urban Construction Investment Debt Scale on Urban Technological Innovation Ability and Its Threshold Effect
		ZHANG Xiangda, YANG Xueqin, LIU Dongdong
		Based on China’s prefecture and city-level data from 2011 to 2017, this paper uses a Threshold Model to explore the relationship between the scale of urban investment debt and the three levels of urban technological innovation (corporate technological innovation capacity, government’s ability to promote technological innovation and infrastructure environmental innovation). The study shows that there is an “invertedU-shaped” relationship between the scale of urban investment debt and the company’s technological innovation capabilities, and a “positive U-shaped” relationship with the government’s ability to promote technological innovation and infrastructure environmental innovation. The threshold for the scale of urban investment debt to promote urban technological innovation capabilities is from 0.2% to 2.9%. The relationship among the scale of urban investment debt in the eastern, central and western regions of China , the technological innovation capabilities of enterprises, the government’s ability to promote technological innovation and the ability of infrastructure environmental innovation is heterogeneous. Therefore, local governments need to issue urban investment bonds based on their own development in order to enhance the city’s technological innovation capabilities and prevent and control urban investment debt risks.
		2021 Vol. 38 (5): 131-140 [Abstract] ( 641 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1173KB] ( 531 )

	141	Pension Insurance Fee Reduction Policy and Enterprise Investment
		ZANG Wenjiao, ZHANG Yugui
		The pension insurance fee reduction policy is an important part of China’s tax and fee reduction reform in recent years. Based on the periodic policies of pension insurance fee reduction in 2016, this paper constructs a Double Difference Model, and analyzes the impact of pension insurance fee reduction policy on enterprise investment. The study finds that the pension insurance fee reduction policy not only reduces the payment burden of enterprises, but also suppresses the investment scale and over-investment behavior of enterprises.The impact of this policy on corporate investment is more significant in those enterprises with low average wage level or in those non-state-owned enterprises. In addition, the pension insurance fee reduction policy not only increases the wages of employees, but also causes enterprises to replace capital with labor, which is conducive to stable employment. This study will provide theoretical support for government departments to further deepen the reform of pension insurance fee reduction.
		2021 Vol. 38 (5): 141-150 [Abstract] ( 656 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1412KB] ( 688 )

	151	Financial Structure and Green Technological Progress: Theoretical Model, Influencing Effect and Action Mechanisms
		GONG Yuanyuan, LIU Zhangsheng
		Based on the provincial level of green technology progress in China from 2007 to 2017, this paper uses the improved Solow Model to analyze the impact of financial structure on green technology progress. The results show that financial structure optimization can directly promote the progress of green technology, and there is a significant U-shaped relationship between environmental regulation and green technological progress. The financial structure promotes the advancement of green technology by increasing the investment in innovation and expanding the technology market. The study also indicates that urbanization rate and economic extroversion to a certain extent will inhibit the improvement of green technological progress level. This study has a reference value for giving full play to the promoting role of financial services to the real economy and making the optimal financial structure policy.
		2021 Vol. 38 (5): 151-160 [Abstract] ( 641 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1179KB] ( 815 )

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