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Economic Survey

	2018 Vol.35 Issue.6 Published 2018-11-10

	1	Study on the Influence of Urban Scale Distribution of China on Regional Innovation Efficiency
		LU Yuan-quan, QIN Jia-jia
		Using the stochastic frontier analysis method of the Cobb-Douglas production function, this paper measures the impact of urban scale distribution of 25 Chinese cities on the regional innovation efficiency during the period of 2007 to 2014.It then adopts cluster analysis to further study the geographical division based on their joint relationships. The results show that: 1) there is an inverted U-type relationship between urban scale distribution and regional innovation efficiency, that is, there is an optimal urban scale distribution that maximizes regional innovation efficiency, and under or over concentrated urban scale is not conducive to the improvement of that efficiency. 2) There are four new types of geographical regions in China, and there are great differences in urban scale distribution and regional innovation efficiency among different types of regions. Overall, the two factors match each other to a greater extent in eastern coastal cities than in mid-west cities. Based on this, this paper argues that a further optimization of urban scale distribution should be adopted in order to effectively improve the efficiency of regional innovation and promote regional economic development.
		2018 Vol. 35 (6): 1-7 [Abstract] ( 993 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 910KB] ( 1289 )

	8	An Analysis of the Formation Mechanism and Structure of Synergistic Development Policy Network in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
		LI Yong-jun
		Based on the policy change theory and combined with the practices of development policy evolution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, this paper studies the formation mechanism of development policy network in this region, and carries out an empirical analysis of the network structure through studies of policy texts, statistic data and cases. It is found that as an important variable, the intervention of central authority and its policy oriented learning initiated the chain reaction among the forming variables of existing policy network, and thus leads to the formation of the basic policy network framework. The cooperation of inter-governmental policy network above provincial level has obvious effect in policy making, and that below provincial level has also been significantly promoted and so has the spillover effect in Beijing and Tianjin. But there is still room for improvement in urban agglomeration network. The governance of secondary policy network should be a major field of attention in the future.
		2018 Vol. 35 (6): 8-14 [Abstract] ( 856 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1267KB] ( 736 )

	15	Research on Temporal and Spatial Contagion Effect of Urban Housing Price Bubble in Pearl River Delta Region and Its Prevention
		GUO Wen-wei, CHEN Shun-qiang
		Based on backward sup ADF test method(BSADF), this paper first measures the housing price bubble in 9 cites in Pearl River Delta region from 2013 to 2016. Then, the paper adopts spatial econometric model and R-Vine Copula in its analysis of the dependent structure and spatial contagion of the housing price bubble among these cities. The results show that there are significant housing bubbles in all these cities, among which, that of Shenzhen is the most serious and last for the longest period of time. There is significant spatial auto-correlation of the housing price bubble in each city, and these bubbles present an alternation between positive and negative intervals. The housing bubbles present the characteristics of geographical and economic agglomeration in all cities in Pearl River Delta region, with Foshan and Zhuhai being the central hubs of their respective aggregate regions.At present, the housing price bubble is spreading from first tier cities to second or third, even fourth tier cities.
		2018 Vol. 35 (6): 15-21 [Abstract] ( 862 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1294KB] ( 792 )

	22	Population Aging, Migration and Regional Housing Price Difference—Research on Urban Panel Data of Cities at Different Tiers
		ZOU Jin, LOU Zhu-sheng
		The level of aging is often intertwined with the factor of population migration, which together affect the temporal and spacial characteristics of China’s housing prices. Through a general equilibrium model of supply and demand, this paper first finds that the increase of the population dependency ratio will reduce the housing price while the increase of population migration pushes it up, and this effect may be different in cities of different urban levels. On this basis, this paper adopts the panel data of 35 cities from 2002 to 2015 and combines static panel model with dynamic panel model in its test of the theory. Hierarchical regression results show that with the increase of city level, the effect of aging and migration on housing price will decrease, and the effect of migration is greater than that of aging. It can be seen that there are structural characteristics in the impact of population structure on housing market, which may be highly correlated to procreation cost, social insurance and benefit, and old age caring cost that result from urban-rural dual economic system and the fragmentation of social security system. The core of promoting the sustainable development of real estate market is to avoid the market imbalance of regional housing.
		2018 Vol. 35 (6): 22-29 [Abstract] ( 926 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1052KB] ( 809 )

	30	The Adoption and Choice of Transaction Intermediary in Agricultural Land Transfer
		JIANG Shu-bin, LI Fan
		Based on data of land plots collected in Yunnan province and from the perspectives of goods and trader, this paper studies the adoption and choice of transaction intermediary in agricultural land transfer. Theoretical analysis and empirical study show that demand for lower transaction cost and affordability constrain the use and choice of transaction intermediary in agricultural land transfer. Land consolidation, time limit of maturity and geo-relationship with the trading partner are key factors for the signing of contracts, while characteristics of land and that of household owners have no significant effects. Village collectives have advantage in land consolidation, extension of maturity and coordinating trade across villages. In order to reduce transaction cost and promote an orderly agricultural land transfer, policymakers should regulate and employ the transaction intermediary function of village collectives.
		2018 Vol. 35 (6): 30-35 [Abstract] ( 778 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 821KB] ( 764 )

	36	Does the Paths of Moderate Scale of Operation Converge Under the Goal of Stabilizing Grain Supply and Increasing Farmers’ Income?——The Empirical Evidence from Two Types of Rotations in Henan
		WANG Xiao-ye
		Using the data of 589 wheat growing households in Henan, and taking wheat output per unit of land, technical efficiency and net income per unit of land as measurements of land productivity, this paper deduces the path selection of moderate scale for the exclusive grain rotation and non-grain rotation respectively, from the perspective of maximizing of output and income. The findings are as follows. Firstly, the wheat output per unit of land is relatively stable in Henan under both rotations. The technical efficiency takes a dramatic downward turn when land area exceeds a certain scale, and the average net income per unit of land for single season wheat and annual crops decreased from positive values to negatives. Secondly, the moderate scale of wheat growing in Henan eventually converge to 200-400 mu under the goal of stabilizing wheat production and increasing income. The “moderate” scale can achieve a win-win goal of stable grain growth and income raise. Thirdly, large-scale and ultra-large-scale operation not only reduce the output efficiency, but also lead to a negative net income. It is of practical significance to establish a “moderate” scale detection mechanism to avoid the blind choices of scales.
		2018 Vol. 35 (6): 36-43 [Abstract] ( 820 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1907KB] ( 695 )

	44	Land Titling Policy, the Weakening of Collective Property Rights and Its Effect——Discussion Based on Fragmentation
		LIU Kai, LUO Ming-zhong
		There is vertical competition of land titling between village collective and farmers in China under the policies of Household Responsibility System. After the implementation of land titling policy, the collective farmland ownership has been “weakened”, and so does its coordinating function in farmland transfer, which makes it harder to realize the concentration of farmland. Based on the farming household data in Guangdong and Jiangxi provinces in 2015 and 2016, and adopting Fmlogit and Order-logit, this paper empirically tests the policy effect of the new round of farmland titling. Results indicate that: 1) land titling policy enhances farmers’ awareness of farmland property rights, while weakening the collective farmland ownership; 2) land titling policy has a significant positive impact on the transfer of farmland, but has a negative impact on the concentration of farmland. It can be inferred that although titling promotes farmland transfer, it becomes even harder to realize the concentration of farmland after the transfer due to the lack of trading coordinator and the lagging development of farmland market.
		2018 Vol. 35 (6): 44-50 [Abstract] ( 859 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1037KB] ( 768 )

	51	The Impact of Service Industry Development on the Domestic Value Added of China’s Manufacturing Export
		HU Cui, LI Rui-qin
		From the perspective of industrial relationship, this paper takes manufacturing export enterprises as samples and analyzes the impact of service industry development on the domestic values added of export (EXDVA) in combination with input-output table. The results of the study show that: 1) the development of China’s service industry has significant positive impact on the EXDVA; 2) on industry level, the rate of domestic value added of manufacturing export exhibits great difference in the extent to which it is influenced by the overall development of service industry for enterprises with different technology concentration. And the impact on domestic value added of manufacturing export also varies in different segments of service industry; 3) on the regional level, the development of service industry is conducive to the rise of EXDVA of industries with comparative advantage. According to these research findings, the paper suggests that China should take into consideration the local conditions in the development of service industry so as to enhance the upgrading and transforming of China’s foreign trade.
		2018 Vol. 35 (6): 51-57 [Abstract] ( 958 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 901KB] ( 691 )

	58	Does the Technique Effect Lower China’s Embodied Carbon Emissions in Foreign Trade?
		WU Xiao-li, PAN An
		Based on the MRIO model and SDA method, this paper investigates the impact of technique effect on China’s embodied carbon emissions in export and import from 1995 to 2011, and analyzes the different effects of carbon emission technique and intermediate technique. The results show that in general, the technique effect lowers China’s embodied carbon emissions in both export and import, in which the effects of carbon emission technique and intermediate technique are opposite. For different industries, the technique effect is mainly revealed in knowledge-intensive manufacturing, which is right the biggest producer of carbon emission. There is a negative impact from intermediate technique on countries of BRIC, European Union and North American Free Trade Zone, whereas the impact is a positive one on countries from East Asia and other regions. Furthermore, the promotion of division status in GVC is beneficial to China’s embodied carbon reduction in export.
		2018 Vol. 35 (6): 58-65 [Abstract] ( 1038 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1289KB] ( 753 )

	66	An Empirical Analysis of the Influence of Confucius Institute on the Trade Facilitation of the Countries Along the “Belt and Road”
		JIANG Hui,ZHANG Zhi-xing
		Adopting two measures of trade facilitation indicators and differential GMM and system GMM, this paper examines the impact of Confucius Institutes on the trade facilitation of countries along the Belt and Road. The findings are as follows: First, Confucius Institutes can reduce the negative impact of geographical or cultural distance between the two countries and enhance trade facilitation in countries along the Belt and Road. Second, the Confucius Institute can promote trade facilitation by affecting China’s foreign trade with and direct investment in countries along the Belt and Road. Third, there are obvious regional differences in the impetus of Confucius Institutes in trade facilitation of countries along the Belt and Road. Therefore, China should put emphasis on strengthening bilateral cultural exchanges with the countries along the “Belt and Road” and on promoting national trade facilitation along the “Belt and Road” through the Confucius Institute.
		2018 Vol. 35 (6): 66-72 [Abstract] ( 979 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 967KB] ( 728 )

	73	Independent R&D, Intermediate Product Import and Technology Sophistication of Manufacturing Export
		HAN Ya-feng, FU Yun-jia
		Through analysis of the logic and mechanism of the independent R&D, intermediate product import and technology complexity of manufacturing export, this paper adopts the provincial panel data from 2007 to 2016 and spatial measurement, then carries out an in-depth analysis of the dynamic change of distribution space and time of intermediate product import and technology complexity of manufacturing export. Empirical results show that independent R&D, import of intermediate products, and the technology complexity of manufacturing are basically the same in terms of regional distribution and spatial agglomeration, with distinct near-neighbor effect. Through the spatial econometrics of total sample, it is found that independent R&D and intermediate product import have a significant effect on the improvement of technology complexity of manufacturing export, but there is no obvious incentive effect. The results of spatial econometrics in different regions show that the independent innovation and the import of intermediate products in the central and western regions have a greater effect on the technology complexity of manufacturing than that of the eastern region. In view of the above analysis results, it is advised to increase investment in R&D, to implement a diversified import of intermediate products, to fully exert the function of space spillover and accumulative effect.
		2018 Vol. 35 (6): 73-79 [Abstract] ( 964 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 821KB] ( 753 )

	80	Population Density, Alternative Competition and Efficiency of China’s Railway Passenger Transportation
		BAI Xue-jie, ZENG Jin
		This paper opens the “black box” of railway passenger transportation by constructing a network DEA model and measures the efficiency of China’s railway passenger transportation industry based on the data of 18 local railway bureaus. The results show that during sample period, overall efficiency of China’s railway industry is rising steadily, but is still at a lower level (0.442).Passenger transportation efficiency (0.609) is significantly higher than passenger service efficiency (0.343). Although the efficiency of passenger transport in the eastern railway bureaus is higher than that of the western railway bureaus, the service efficiency is not as efficient as that of the western railway bureaus. There are several problems in China railway industry such as over-investment, repeated construction, lack of railway workers and administrative personnel redundancy.Service level needs to be improved and income-generating capacity is insufficient.
		2018 Vol. 35 (6): 80-86 [Abstract] ( 837 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 980KB] ( 716 )

	87	Study of the Effect of Rural Industrial Restructuring on Urbanization
		YANG Jun
		This paper theoretically explores the influence paths of the rural industrial restructuring on the development of urbanization. The regional and structural effects of the rural industrial restructuring on the development of urbanization are analyzed through empirical tests. The results show that the transfer of rural surplus labor force, scale effect and externality effect are the main theoretical approaches,through which the rural industrial restructuring influences the development of urbanization. The influence of the ratios of primary industry and secondary industry on urbanization shows a U-type path, while the effect of the proportion of the tertiary industry in rural areas presents a reverse U-type path, which shows significant regional differences and structural differences. The impact of rural industrial structure deviation on urbanization presents a U-type path, in which the influence in the central and western regions is negative, and that in the eastern region is positive.
		2018 Vol. 35 (6): 87-93 [Abstract] ( 875 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 783KB] ( 1046 )

	94	The Impact of Environmental Regulation Instruments on Environment Quality from the Perspective of Industrial Structure
		ZENG Qian, ZENG Xian-feng, LIU Jin-ru
		In order to improve the quality of the environment, China usually uses three types of environmental regulation tools: the command control, the market incentive and public participation. This paper is an empirical test study of the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2016. The conclusions show that in different regions with different industrial structures, the effects of these three environmental regulation tools vary accordingly. The more advanced and optimized the industrial structure is, the better the effect of public participation tool on environment quality is. The more underdeveloped in industrial structure, the better the effect of command control tool on pollution control. Therefore, China should switch from the traditional mode of environment governance of “One Size Fits All” to a mode that is adjustable to local conditions. In regions with advanced industrial structure, more policies that encourage public participation should be introduced. But in regions with less advanced industrial structure, a reasonable increase in the command control policies will be beneficial in improving the environment.
		2018 Vol. 35 (6): 94-100 [Abstract] ( 880 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 966KB] ( 909 )

	101	The Influence Mechanism of Overqualification on Employee’s Voice Behavior——Roles of Perceived Insider Status and Psychological Entitlement
		ZHAO Li-jing, ZHANG Zheng-tang, SONG Kun-tai
		From the perspective of employee-organization relationship, justice sensitivity and attribution theory, this research tests the influence mechanism of overqualification on employee’s voice behavior as well as its boundary conditions. An empirical analysis of 263 valid samples shows that there is a significant negative effect of overqualification on employee’s voice behavior. The perceived insider status plays a partial mediating role between overqualification and voice behavior. Besides, psychological entitlement positively moderates the relationship and overqualification influences the entire mediating mechanism of voice behavior through perceived insider status.
		2018 Vol. 35 (6): 101-106 [Abstract] ( 965 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 786KB] ( 1034 )

	107	The Mechanism of Relationship Marketing in Customer-Controlled Self-Service Experience
		LIU Shun-zhong
		Self-service experience is the key to the continued use of self-service technology from customers. Due to the strong dominance and controllability of self-service, the experience of this service is a customer ecosystem based on customer demand, knowledge, experience and value, which is formed in the process of evaluation, interpretation and application of self-service technology. Therefore, picking self-service terminals as research object, this paper studies the relationship marketing strategies based on the logic of customer dominance and rebuilds the customer ecosystem in its examination of its influence on self-service experience. Analytical results of 283 survey samples show that relationship marketing strategies can significantly improve the customer self-service experience through rebuilding the variables of technology trust, perceived usefulness and perceived usability. The key focus of service provider should switch from the product-dominant logic to customer-dominant logic, from what the service can bring to customers to what customers do with the self-service technology.
		2018 Vol. 35 (6): 107-113 [Abstract] ( 926 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 929KB] ( 716 )

	114	The Influence of Differentiated Transformational Leadership on Innovation Performance
		LIANG Fu, ZHANG Zhi-xin
		This study introduces both the consistent and differentiated transformational leadership into the response relationship and adopts the SPSS18.0 and AMOS21.0 in its regression analysis and validity test. Through an empirical analysis of 253 employees, the paper reveals the waveform effect of differentiated transformational leadership on innovation performance. It is found that there is significant waveform effect on innovation performance in both consistent and differentiated transformational leadership. In other words, the boosting effect and restraining effect of consistent and differentiated transformational leadership will come into play in turns. The results extend the scope of explanatory variables and research content of differentiated transformational leadership. This study provides a new research path for future theoretical discussion of differential transformational leadership by combing its influence on innovation performance.
		2018 Vol. 35 (6): 114-120 [Abstract] ( 947 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1053KB] ( 792 )

	121	The Structure of Factor Income Distribution, Residents’ Consumption and Economic Growth
		XU Chang-jian, YUAN Yi-ming
		The initial factor income distribution has an important impact on the development of the economy, which will affect the overall consumption of the society and further influence the economic growth. Using the provincial panel data from 1993-2015 and fixed effect model, the empirical analysis finds that the share of labor income has significant impact on consumption, and the consumption function complies with the C-D function form; the relationships between the share of labor income and GDP growth rate, between that and GDP growth rate per capita present a “U” shape curve, while the relationships between the urban-rural income gap and the growth rate of GDP, between that and the growth rate of GDP per capita present an inverted “U” curve. Labor income share has a negative impact on economic growth rate while the impact of consumption rate on economic growth rate is a significantly positive one. The cross term of labor income share and consumption rate also has a negative impact on economic growth rate. It shows that as the main source of income, labor income decline results in a drop in income, in consumption, and further leads to a weak economic growth. From the perspective of the regional development, the trend of impact of labor income share and urban-rural income gap on economic growth is consistent with the national trend. Except for the northeastern region where there is a significant positive impact from consumption rate on economic growth, this impact in other regions are insignificant. Fixed assets investment shows a significantly negative impact on economic growth rate. In order to realize the economic transition towards a consumption-driven one and to share economic development results, the proportion of workers’ compensation in primary distribution should be raised.
		2018 Vol. 35 (6): 121-126 [Abstract] ( 1039 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 796KB] ( 989 )

	127	Does Urbanization Promote Public Health?
		CHANG Qing-qing, ZHONG Wei-zhou
		“Healthy China” is an important development strategy in the new era, and urbanization has complex effects on the public health of residents. Based on the data of 31 provinces from 2001 to 2016, this paper uses quantile regression model to analyze the impact of urbanization on public health and regional differences. The results show that urbanization has a significant promoting effect on public health at all quantiles in China. At the regional level, the positive effect of urbanization on public health in the eastern region is significantly greater than that in the central and western regions. The study also finds that air pollution and an aging population also have important effects on public health. Finally, the robustness test results show that the conclusions of this paper are robust and reliable.
		2018 Vol. 35 (6): 127-134 [Abstract] ( 875 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1082KB] ( 974 )

	135	Fiscal Decentralization,Local Government Debt and Total Factor Productivity——An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data
		SUN Ying-jie, LIN Chun
		Taking China’s fiscal decentralization reform as a turning point, this paper adopts China’s provincial panel data between 2000 and 2015 and the SYS-GMM in its analysis of the influence of fiscal decentralization and local government debt on total factor productivity. Results show that fiscal decentralization, local government debt, and the interaction of the two all have a significant promoting effect on total factor productivity, but with different effects in different regions. This shows that under the background of fiscal decentralization, local government debt has an important promoting effect on the enhancement of total factor productivity. Therefore, China should continue to improve the measures of fiscal decentralization reform, set up an effective investment and financing platform for local governments, and promote the transition of regional economy towards high quality development.
		2018 Vol. 35 (6): 135-142 [Abstract] ( 1101 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 911KB] ( 734 )

	143	Currency Regulation and the Effective Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in China——Based on Sign Restriction SVAR Model
		CHEN Chen
		In order to effectively identify monetary policy shocks, this paper adopts the high-frequency monthly data between 2001 and 2017, and uses sign restriction SVAR model to set up a shock system of currency policy which includes both quantity and price variables. The empirical results show that the identification of currency policy shocks based on sign restriction SVAR can take in both variables of quantity and price-based monetary policy. Under the shocks of tight monetary policies, the productivity will decrease and inflation will be reduced effectively. When compared with traditional model, productivity reacts quicker to shocks but weaker in intensity. China should maintain the balance between quantity and price druing the transformation of monetary policies.
		2018 Vol. 35 (6): 143-149 [Abstract] ( 1260 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 944KB] ( 755 )

	150	The Effectiveness of China’s Monetary Policy in Critical Periods
		DING Hua, DING Ning
		Using China’s macro economic data between January 1998 and June 2017, this paper picks December 1998, June 2005, December 2008 and June 2015 as four critical periods, and constructs a time-varying parameter factor extended vector autoregressive model (TVP-FAVAR). It then studies the time-varying influence of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomy in different times. The results show that: first, whether it’s quantity-based or price-based requlation, monetary policy can contribute to the growth of output and price stability, in which the output has a shorter time lag than the price. Second, in the period of crisis and the new normal period, price-based monetary policy has an upwind effect on inflation while the quantitative monetary policy is less effective than in the economic prosperity period. Third, quantitative monetary policy promotes consumption, investment, import and export and credit growth while price-based monetary policy brings better results in the regulation of deposit and lending rates, the RMB exchange rate and the stock.
		2018 Vol. 35 (6): 150-157 [Abstract] ( 967 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 2014KB] ( 826 )

	158	Estimation of Heterogeneity, Simulation of Future Scenarios and an Empirical Research of Leverage Ratio of Chinese Non-Financial Enterprises
		WANG Gui-hu, GUO Jin-long
		Using the data of Chinese Statistical Yearbook, the World Bank and IMF, and adopting the dynamic GMM and fixed effect models, this paper estimates the heterogeneity of the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises in China, simulates the scenarios for the next 20 years, and does an empirical analysis. The study finds that:1) the leverage ratio of China’s non-financial enterprises gradually rose to top one in the world after 2010. 2)There is a significant negative correlation between the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises and economic growth. 3)The impact and shock of non-financial enterprises leverage ratio on economic growth is more intense than financial leverage. In reality, the deleveraging of entity enterprises is more urgent and important than financial deleveraging.
		2018 Vol. 35 (6): 158-164 [Abstract] ( 827 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1003KB] ( 1028 )

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