汇率价格传导机制下人民币汇率悖论的理论与实证解析

摘要笔者通过建立VAR模型,结合我国实际情况,探讨了人民币“外升内贬”传导机理,实证分析人民币汇率悖论的传导路径。研究结果表明中国汇率升值引起外汇占款增加,外汇占款的增加导致货币供应量的增加,最终引起物价水平上涨。

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	陶士贵
	孙俣

关键词：汇率悖论汇率价格传导机制 AR模型

Abstract： Based on the traditional exchange rate price transmission theory and the facts in China, this article tries to explore the conduction mechanism of RMB’s domestic appreciation and international depreciation, and analyze the conduction path of RMB exchange rate paradox by the VAR model as well. According to the model, the conduction path exists: exchange rate appreciation increases the amount of foreign exchange reserves, which further results in a higher money supply, and the enhanced money supply finally booms the price level. In the end, this article provides some policy suggestions regarding the paradox.

Keywords： the RMB Exchange Rate Paradox Exchange Rate Price Transmission Mechanism VAR Model

收稿日期 2014-11-14; 接受日期 2014-11-14;

基金资助:国家社会科学基金一般项目(13BJY17);南京师范大学商学院研究生创新人才培养计划项目(13CX_003G)

作者简介: 陶士贵(1966-),男,江苏东海人,南京师范大学商学院教授,主要从事国际金融研究;孙俣(1990-),女,江苏东海人,南京师范大学商学院金融学硕士研究生,主要从事国际金融研究。

引用本文:

陶士贵, 孙俣.汇率价格传导机制下人民币汇率悖论的理论与实证解析[J]. 经济经纬, 2014,6: 154-160

TAO Shi-gui, SUN Yu.A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of the RMB Exchange Rate Paradox under the Exchange Rate Price Transmission Mechanism[J] Economic Survey, 2014,V31(6): 154-160

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2014/V31/I6/154