产业结构变动对国际收支失衡的影响——基于状态空间模型的分析

摘要笔者利用状态空间模型进行实证分析发现:中国产业结构总体不合理,对国际收支失衡起重要推动作用;与产业的非结构性变动相对比,产业的结构性变动对国际收支失衡的影响程度更高。在现阶段,应对本国汇率和资本管制政策进行必要的调整,以便充分发挥产业结构变动对国际收支失衡的调节作用。

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	徐仲昆

关键词：产业结构国际收支状态空间模型汇率政策

Abstract： By using the state space model, this paper conducts an empirical analysis and finds that China’s industry structure is irrational as a whole. The irrational structure of industry has played a very important role in promoting the imbalance of payment. Compared to the non-structural changes in industry, the structural changes in industry has influenced the imbalance of payment more greatly. At this stage, China should make necessary adjustments on foreign exchange policy and capital control policy to liberate the effect of the structural changes in industry on the imbalance of payment.

Keywords： Industrial Structure Balance of Payments State Space Model Foreign Exchange Policy

收稿日期 2012-12-26; 接受日期 2013-12-19;

作者简介: 徐仲昆(1974-),男,河南省郑州市人,副教授,西安交通大学经济与金融学院博士研究生,主要从事金融理论与政策研究。

引用本文:

徐仲昆.产业结构变动对国际收支失衡的影响——基于状态空间模型的分析[J]. 经济经纬, 2014,1: 84-89

XU Zhong-kun.Impacts of Changes in Industrial Structure on the Imbalance of Payment ——Based on the Analysis of State Space Model[J] Economic Survey, 2014,V31(1): 84-89

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2014/V31/I1/84