城镇化提高了农业机械化水平吗？——来自中国31个省(区、市)的面板证据

摘要基于2000—2016年中国31个省(区、市)的面板数据,利用中介效应模型分析了城镇化对农业机械化水平的影响效应,并对其作用机制进行了考察。结果发现:从总效应来看,城镇化对农业机械化水平具有显著的正向影响,其中,农业劳动力和农民收入均发挥了显著的正向中介效应,且前者的作用远远大于后者;进一步研究发现,东部地区城镇化促进农业机械化水平提高的机制表现为农业劳动力与农民收入的双重中介效应,而中西部地区仅表现为农业劳动力的正向中介效应。混合最小二乘法、随机效应模型以及工具变量法的稳健性检验均支持上述结论。据此,我们提出引导农业劳动力转移、提高农机购置补贴标准以及建立农机社会化服务体系等针对性政策建议。

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	高延雷
	张正岩
	王志刚

关键词：城镇化农业机械化农业劳动力农民收入

Abstract： Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2016, this paper explores the mechanism of urbanization affecting agricultural mechanization by using the mediation effect model. The results show that, from the overall effect, urbanization has a significant positive impact on agricultural mechanization; among them, agricultural labor force and farmers’ income have played a significant positive intermediary effect, and the former is far greater than the latter; and from the perspective of different economies, urbanization in the eastern region promotes the agricultural mechanization. The mechanism shows a double intermediary effect between agricultural labor and farmers’ income, while in the central and western regions it only shows the positive intermediary effect of agricultural labor. The robust test of POLS method, random effect model and IV method supports the above conclusion. Finally, in view of the above conclusions, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions, such as guiding the transfer of agricultural labor, improving the subsidy standard for agricultural machinery, and establishing the socialized service system of agricultural machinery.

Keywords： Urbanization Agriculture Mechanization Rural Labor Farmer’s Income

收稿日期 2019-03-10; 接受日期 ;

基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目(71773136;71841010);清华大学中国农村研究院博士论文奖学金项目(201915)

通讯作者 王志刚(1965— ),男,辽宁开原人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事产业经济研究。

作者简介: 高延雷(1990— ),男,山东乐陵人,博士研究生,主要从事城镇化、粮食安全问题研究;张正岩(1991— ),男,山东潍坊人,博士研究生,主要从事城镇化问题研究;王志刚(1965— ),男,辽宁开原人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事产业经济研究。

引用本文:

高延雷, 张正岩, 王志刚.城镇化提高了农业机械化水平吗？——来自中国31个省(区、市)的面板证据[J]. 经济经纬, 2020,3: 37-44

GAO Yanlei, ZHANG Zhengyan, WANG Zhigang.Does Urbanization Improve Agricultural Mechanization? —Panel Evidence from 31 Provinces in China[J] Economic Survey, 2020,V37(3): 37-44

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2020/V37/I3/37

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