“一带一路”倡议对中国沿线省份产业结构升级的影响研究

摘要在后疫情时代世界经济下行压力加大、国内外经济发展形势剧变的趋势下,中国适时提出要构建国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,为国际产业合作优化调整提供了中国方案。利用2008—2018年地级城市层面数据,对“一带一路”倡议的产业结构升级效应进行量化评估。研究发现:(1)双重差分回归结果显示“一带一路”倡议促进了地区产业结构升级,但是存在时间滞后。(2)倾向得分匹配双重差分和安慰剂检验证明“一带一路”倡议对产业结构升级的促进作用不受地级市-年份层面不可观测因素的影响。(3)根据城市地理特征和资源水平进行分组检验,结果表明“一带一路”倡议对“胡焕庸线”西北地区和资源型城市产业结构升级的促进效应更为显著。(4)作用机制分析表明贸易畅通和设施联通是“一带一路”倡议促进产业结构升级的重要路径。

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	傅京燕
	程芳芳

关键词： “一带一路” 产业结构升级双重差分

Abstract： Under the trend of increasing downward pressure on the world economy in the “post-epidemic era” and drastic changes in the economic development situation at home and abroad, China has timely proposed to build a new development pattern of mutual promotion of domestic and international double cycles, which provides a Chinese plan for the optimization and adjustment of international industrial cooperation. Based on the data at the prefecture-level city level from 2008 to 2018, this paper makes a quantitative evaluation of the industrial structure upgrading effect of “Belt and Road Initiative” initiative. There are following findings: (1) The results of the dual differential regression show that the “Belt and Road” initiative has promoted the upgrading of regional industrial structure, but there is a time lag. (2) The propensity score matching double-difference and placebo test prove that the promotion effect of the “Belt and Road” initiative on the upgrading of industrial structure is not affected by unforeseen factors at the prefecture-year level. (3) The grouping test results of urban geographical characteristics and resource levels show that the “Belt and Road” initiative has a more significant promotion effect on the upgrading of industrial structure in the northwestern region of the “Hu Huanyong Line” and resource-based cities. (4) Mechanism analysis shows that unimpeded trade and facility connectivity are important ways for the “Belt and Road” initiative to promote industrial structure upgrading.

Keywords： “Belt and Road” Industrial Structure Upgrade Double Difference

收稿日期 2020-07-21; 接受日期 ;

基金资助:国家社会科学基金项目(19BJY079)

作者简介: 傅京燕(1973— ),女,广东广州人,教授,主要从事环境与产业经济研究;程芳芳(1991—),女,河南濮阳人,博士研究生,主要从事环境与产业经济研究。

引用本文:

傅京燕, 程芳芳.“一带一路”倡议对中国沿线省份产业结构升级的影响研究[J]. 经济经纬, 2021,3: 66-75

FU Jingyan, CHENG Fangfang.A Study on the Influence of “Belt and Road Initiative” on the Upgrading of Industrial Structure in Provinces along the Road[J] Economic Survey, 2021,V38(3): 66-75

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2021/V38/I3/66

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