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    经济经纬 2018 Issue (4) :23-29
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    新农保可以替代农村家庭养老吗?——基于子女结构差异的断点回归
    张召华1, 王蕾2, 罗宇溪3
    1.山东农业大学 经济管理学院,山东 泰安 271018;
2.河海大学 企业管理学院, 江苏 常州 213000;
3.广西师范大学 经济管理学院,广西 桂林 541004
    Can the New Rural Old-age Pension Substitute Rural Family Support for the Elderly?——Evidence from Regression Discontinuity Based on Gender Difference of Children
    ZHANG Zhao-hua1, WANG Lei2, LUO Yu-xi3
    1.School of Economics and Management, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China;
2.School of Business Administration, Hehai University, Changzhou 213000, China;
3.School of Economics and Management, Guangxi Normal University, Guilin 541004, China
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摘要 基于2013年中国健康与养老追踪调查数据,对样本进行逆概率加权后,运用差分-断点法分析了新农保养老金收入在经济支持与精神慰藉两方面对农村家庭养老的替代效应。分析发现:新农保养老金收入使子女对父母的经济支持减少了23%;在精神慰藉方面,新农保养老金收入降低了子女与父母同住的可能性,并且减少了子女探望父母的次数。从分样本回归结果来看,养老金收入对至少有一个儿子的家庭影响较大,对只有女儿的家庭几乎没有显著影响。研究结论表明:尽管社会养老提高了老人的经济独立性,但弱化了子女与父母的情感交流。因此,在社会养老不断推进的同时,还应当重视家庭养老在精神慰藉方面的作用,避免出现空巢家庭,影响老年人的养老质量。
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张召华
王蕾
罗宇溪
关键词“一带一路”   网络结构   社会网络分析   文化贸易强度   新农保   家庭养老   差分-断点回归   子女结构     
Abstract: Through an inverse probability weighting of sample data from the 2013 CHARLS and the combination of the regression discontinuity design with the “Difference in Differences” approach, this study addresses the substitution effect of China’s new rural old-age pension program on traditional family-based elder care from perspectives of financial support and spiritual comfort. The results reveal that pension income reduces the pecuniary support from adult children by 23%. In addition, a pension income decreases the probability of co-residence between adult children and their parents, as well as the frequency of adult children’s visit. From sample regression results, it is observed that pension income makes a big difference in families with sons while showing no influence on families with daughters only. Generally, these results indicate that social pension weakens the emotional ties between adult children and parents though it enhances their financial independence. Therefore, along with the deeper development of social pension, great attention should also be paid to the non-monetary support by policy makers to improve the psychological well-being of the elderly in an attempt to reduce the number of empty nest families.
KeywordsOne Belt and One Road   Network Structure   Social Network Analysis   Cultural Trade Intensity   New Rural Old-age Pension   Family Support of the Elderly   Regression Discontinuity   Gender Difference of Children     
收稿日期 2017-09-08; 接受日期 2018-09-19;
基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目(41501126)
作者简介: 张召华(1986— ),女,山东烟台人,博士,讲师,主要从事应用经济学研究; 王蕾(1986— ),女,陕西渭南人,博士,讲师,主要从事农村公共产品研究;罗宇溪(1985— ),男,广西桂林人,博士,讲师,主要从事应用经济学研究。
引用本文:   
张召华, 王蕾, 罗宇溪.新农保可以替代农村家庭养老吗?——基于子女结构差异的断点回归[J].  经济经纬, 2018,4: 23-29
ZHANG Zhao-hua, WANG Lei, LUO Yu-xi.Can the New Rural Old-age Pension Substitute Rural Family Support for the Elderly?——Evidence from Regression Discontinuity Based on Gender Difference of Children[J]  Economic Survey, 2018,V35(4): 23-29
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