全球价值链下中欧增加值贸易测度及分解研究

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摘要

基于传统总值统计方式的中欧双边贸易数据夸大了中国的贸易利得并导致欧盟对华贸易保护主义压力骤升。根据总贸易分解框架,重新测算了2001—2011年的中欧双边真实贸易量、贸易结构和要素结构。研究结果表明:传统统计方式高估了中欧双边贸易差额,在考察期内,以增加值贸易统计的中国同欧盟出口、进口及贸易差额与总值贸易相比平均下降了23.41%、16.29%和48.81%;中国向欧盟出口中的增加值以资本和低技术劳动力创造的最终产品为主,主要从事低端加工组装环节的工作,位于全球价值链的下游位置,获益能力较低,但有一定的攀升趋势;欧盟向中国出口中的增加值以资本和中技术劳动力创造的中间品为主,位于全球价值链相对上游的位置,获益能力较高。

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	刘会政
	宗喆

关键词：全球价值链增加值贸易总贸易分解三国投入产出模型

Abstract：

Traditional statistics of China-EU’s bilateral trade based on total trade volume exaggerate China’s trade gains and lead to enormous pressure of trade protectionism from EU against China. Based on gross trade decomposition framework, this paper remeasures the real bilateral trade volume, trade composition and factor endowment structure of China-EU’s bilateral trade between 2001 and 2011. The results show that: traditional statistics significantly overestimate the bilateral trade balance between China and EU. During the investigation period, China’s export, import and balance of value added trade decreased respectively by an average of 23.41%, 16.29% and 48.81% compared to gross trade. The added value in China’s export to EU is dominated by final goods which are produced by capital and low-skilled labor through assembling activities. With a low profitability, this added value belongs to the downstream of global value chain, but has the potential to rise. In contrast, the added value in EU’s exports to China is mainly intermediate goods which are produced by capital and medium-skilled labor, belonging to the relative upstream of global value chain with a higher profitability.

Keywords： Global Value Chain Trade in Value-Added Decomposition of Gross Trade Input-Output Model of Three Countries

收稿日期 2016-10-08; 接受日期 2018-02-07;

基金资助:

北京市社会科学规划项目(S0011012201601)

作者简介: 刘会政(1978-),男,山东烟台人,博士,副教授,主要从事国际贸易、全球价值链问题研究;宗喆(1993-),女,新疆五家渠人,硕士研究生,主要从事全球价值链、贸易与环境问题研究。

引用本文:

刘会政, 宗喆.全球价值链下中欧增加值贸易测度及分解研究[J]. 经济经纬, 2018,1: 55-62

LIU Hui-zheng, ZONG Zhe.The Measurement and Decomposition Research on China-EU Value-Added Trade Under Global Value Chain[J] Economic Survey, 2018,V35(1): 55-62

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2018/V35/I1/55