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    经济经纬 2016 Issue (4) :150-154
    财政金融 最新目录 | 下期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
    我国现行货币政策调控效率研究 ——基于近17年来数据的实证分析
    程贵1,万解秋2,李萌1
    1.兰州财经大学 中国西北金融研究中心,甘肃 兰州 730020 ;   
2.苏州大学 东吴商学院,江苏 苏州 215000
    The Study of the Efficiency of China’sCurrent Monetary Policy Regulation——An Empirical Analysis Based on data from the Last 17 years
     CHENG Gui1 ,WAN Jie-qiu2,LI Meng1
    1. China Northwest Center of Financial Research, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, Lanzhou 730020, China ;2.Dongwu Business School, Suzhou University, Suzhou 215000, China
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摘要 笔者以1998年~2014年的季度数据为样本,尝试采用超越函数的随机前沿分析方法来估计我国货币政策的真实效率水平。实证研究表明,经济增长和物价稳定在我国货币政策目标综合变量中具有同等的权重;较利率,货币供应量M2对货币政策综合目标变量的影响更大;我国货币政策效率总体水平并不高,货币政策的调控效力并未得到有效发挥,政策的预设目标与实际效果之间存在较大差距。为提高货币政策的调控效率,我国的政策调控应从以下方面着手(1)改革货币政策框架,在现有货币政策框架内尝试引入弹性通胀目标制;(2)加大对影子银行体系的监测与统计,将影子银行体系纳入货币政策调控范畴;(3)进一步推进利率和汇率形成机制改革,疏通货币政策传导机制。
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程贵
万解秋
李萌
关键词货币政策目标   货币政策效率   影子银行   SFA     
Abstract: Based on quarterly data from the year 1998 to 2014, this paper adopts stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) which belongs to transcendental functions to estimate the true level of the efficiency of monetary policy. Empirical studies show that economic growth and price stability have the equal weight within the integrated variable of China's monetary policy. Compared to interest rate, money supply M2 has greater impact on the integrated target variable of monetary policy. The overall level of China's monetary policy efficiency is not high, the regulation effect of monetary policy has not been fully used, and there is a big gap between the preset objectives of the policy and the actual results. In order to improve the efficiency of monetary policy regulation in China, the policy regulation should be adjusted in the following aspects: (1) to reshape of the monetary policy framework and introduce flexible inflation targeting within the existing monetary policy framework. (2) To further promote the reform of interest rates and dredge transmission mechanism of monetary policy. (3) To deepen the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, introducing more market-based mechanism.
KeywordsMonetary Policy Target   Efficiency Of Monetary Policy   Shadow Banking   SFA     
收稿日期 2014-08-29; 接受日期 2016-07-11;
基金资助:甘肃省高等学校科研项目(2014A-068);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(15YJA790009)
作者简介: 程贵(1980—),男,江苏高淳人,博士,副教授,主要从事金融理论与政策研究;万解秋(1955—),男,江苏苏州人,博士,教授,主要从事金融理论与政策研究;李萌(1990—),女,河南驻马店人,硕士研究生,主要从事金融理论与政策研究。
引用本文:   
程贵,万解秋,李萌.我国现行货币政策调控效率研究 ——基于近17年来数据的实证分析[J].  经济经纬, 2016,4: 150-154
CHENG Gui ,WAN Jie-qiu,LI Meng.The Study of the Efficiency of China’sCurrent Monetary Policy Regulation——An Empirical Analysis Based on data from the Last 17 years[J]  Economic Survey, 2016,V33(4): 150-154
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