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    经济经纬 2015 Issue (3) :155-160
    财政金融 最新目录 | 下期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
    “节俭的悖论”与财政支出转向
    靳 珂1,2
    (1.中南财经政法大学 金融学院,湖北 武汉 430073;   2.中国人民银行 郑州中支支行,河南 郑州 450040)
    “Paradox of Thrift” and Fiscal Expenditure Shift
    JIN Ke1,2
    (1.School of Finance, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073,China;
2.Zhengzhou Branch, People’s Bank of China, Zhengzhou 450040,China)
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摘要 笔者通过MPLAN系统, 以餐饮业收入减少额为切入点, 就“八项规定”对宏观经济的影响进行模拟分析。分析结果表明:“八项规定”的确会在一定程度上引发“蜜蜂的寓言”所描绘的由节俭带来的经济效应, 如果能够成功进行有针对性的财政支出转向, 有效率地使用节省下来的财政资金转投其他产业, 会对宏观经济产生新的正效应。因此, 应在“八项规定”之后基于政策目标及各产业的不同性质进行有针对性的资金投入, 以消除“节俭的悖论”, 并促进宏观经济的健康平稳运行。
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靳 珂
关键词节俭悖论   财政支出转向   IMPLAN系统     
Abstract: With IMPLAN model applied effectively, regarding catering industry as a breakthrough point, the modeling analysis is conducted in the entire influences from “Eight Regulations” on macro-economy. The analytic result indicates that: to some extent, “Eight Regulations” will have some negative macroeconomic impact due to the thrift depicted by “the Fable of the Bees”. But if the successful and targeted fiscal expenditure shift would be fulfilled and the saved fiscal capital could effectively switch to other industries, the new positive effects on macro-economy would emerge. Therefore, after “Eight Regulations” is introduced formally, the targeted capital input should be implemented, based on policy purposes and the different industrial natures, so as to eliminate the “Paradox of Thrift” and promote the healthy and stable macroeconomic development.
KeywordsParadox of Thrift   Fiscal Expenditure Shift   IMPLAN System     
收稿日期 2015-05-07; 接受日期 2015-05-07;
作者简介: 靳珂(1981- ),男,河南南阳人,博士研究生,主要从事货币政策研究。
引用本文:   
靳 珂.“节俭的悖论”与财政支出转向[J].  经济经纬, 2015,3: 155-160
JIN Ke.“Paradox of Thrift” and Fiscal Expenditure Shift[J]  Economic Survey, 2015,V32(3): 155-160
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http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/     或     http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2015/V32/I3/155
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