世界经济失衡与平衡、再平衡的分析探讨

摘要笔者从全球经济失衡含义的变化、近期加剧与次贷危机爆发之间的逻辑关系对全球经济失衡与平衡、再平衡的进程进行了探讨。世界经济失衡含义的变化，使之从反映南北经济关系演化为经常账户的不可持续，本次美国房地产泡沫的破裂和次贷危机的爆发集中体现了美国国内实体经济与虚拟经济发展的严重失衡以及全球金融发展极度不平衡的全球经济失衡实质。次贷危机既是对此前全球经济失衡过度积累的系统性风险的集中反映，也是对过度失衡进行的破坏性调整和再平衡。平衡的实质是使发展中国家经济得到发展，再平衡的实质是对原有全球主要经济体增长模式进行调整，前者是质变，后者是量的调整而不是质的改变。人民币汇率不是再平衡的工具，对美元大幅升值单方面来达到全球经济平衡是既没有理由也是不可能的。

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关键词：全球经济失衡次贷危机平衡再平衡

Abstract： By reviewing the logical relations between the accelerated imbalance of global economy and the outbreak of subprime mortgage crisis, the authors probe into the global economic imbalance and the process of rebalancing. Global economic imbalance, a term once frequently used to describe the North-South economic relations, has changed to denote the unsustainability of current account of some core states. The housing bubble burst and outbreak of subprime crisis demonstrated the reality of imbalance between real economy and fictitious economy in the U.S.A, as well as the extreme development imbalance of capital markets around the world. And the crisis, which is a reflection of systemic risks of the world economy, also serves as a devastating adjustment to the past excessive global imbalance. The original intention of global economic balancing is to promote the economy of the developing countries, whereas rebalancing is a quantitative means aiming to adjust the growth model of major countries. In this regard, the RMB exchange rate should not be a reasonable and feasible solution to the global economic imbalance

Keywords： global economic imbalance subprime mortgage crisis balance rebalance

收稿日期 2011-02-10; 接受日期 2011-10-30;

基金资助:

教育部研究基地重大项目 (10JJD790006)

作者简介: 黄卫平(1951-),男,北京人,经济学博士,中国人民大学经济学院教授、博士生导师,主要从事世界经济、国际经贸理论与政策研究|钟表(1975-)，男,广东湛江人,中国人民大学经济学院经济学博士研究生,经济师，主要从事世界经济和国际贸易研究。

引用本文:

黄卫平, 钟表.世界经济失衡与平衡、再平衡的分析探讨[J]. 经济经纬, 2011,4: 66-70

HUANG Wei-ping , ZHONG Biao .An Analysis of Global Economic Imbalance, Balance and Rebalance[J] Economic Survey, 2011,V28(4): 66-70

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2011/V28/I4/66