流动性过剩、超额外汇储备与通货膨胀关系的研究--来自我国1997年～2009年月度数据的证据

摘要笔者阐述了超额外汇储备下的流动性过剩及其表现，根据经济学供需模型的原理机制，对当前超额外汇储备下流动性过剩与通货膨胀的成因进行了理论分析，并根据中国1997年～2009年的月度数据，运用VAR模型对其进行了实证研究。研究证明，外汇储备的增加对我国的物价确实带来了冲击，但是影响很小，然而汇率的变动会带来我国物价的剧烈波动。

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	陈文政

关键词：外汇储备流动性过剩汇率通货膨胀

Abstract： The authors discusses excess liquidity and its representation in the condition of excessive foreign exchange reserve, and according to the principle mechanism of the supply and demand model of economics, makes a theoretical analysis of the causes of excess liquidity and inflation in the condition of excessive foreign exchange reserve. The author makes an empirical research of it with VAR model on the basis of the monthly data from 1997 to 2009. The research demonstrates that the increase in foreign exchange reserve really has impact on the prices of our country, but the impact is small. However, the change in exchange rate will cause great fluctuation of the prices of our country

Keywords： foreign exchange reserve excess liquidity exchange rate inflation

收稿日期 2010-09-20; 接受日期 2011-10-30;

基金资助:

国家社科基金项目(08BJL014)

作者简介: 陈文政(1965-)，男，河南兰考人，经济学博士，上海金融学院国际金融学院副教授，主要从事金融实务研究。

引用本文:

陈文政.流动性过剩、超额外汇储备与通货膨胀关系的研究--来自我国1997年～2009年月度数据的证据[J]. 经济经纬, 2011,2: 143-147

CHEN Wen-zheng.A Research into the Relationship among Excess Liquidity, Excessive Foreign Exchange Reserve and Inflation--Evidence from the Monthly Data of Our lountry from 1997 to 2009[J] Economic Survey, 2011,V28(2): 143-147

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2011/V28/I2/143