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Economic Survey

	2022 Vol.39 Issue.5 Published 2022-09-10

	3	Population Aging, Digital Economy and High-quality Economic Development
		ZHANG Chenxia, LI Ronglin
		This paper first uses the entropy method to construct the index of high-quality economic development level, and then systematically examines the effects of population aging and digital economy on it by using panel model, spatial Durbin model and regulatory effect model on the basis of theoretical analysis. The study finds that population aging can reduce the level of high-quality development of the local economy, and hinder the improvement of the high-quality development level of the surrounding regional economy through spatial spillover effects. Digital economy can not only significantly improve the level of high-quality economic development, but also improve the high-quality economic development level of the surrounding areas through spatial spillover effect. Sub-regional research shows that the direct effect of population aging on high-quality economic development decreases in the order of western, central, northeastern, and eastern regions, and the spatial spillover effect of population aging is not significant in the western region. The direct effect of digital economy on high-quality economic development decreases in the order of eastern, central, northeastern, and western regions, and the spatial spillover effect of the digital economy is not significant in the western region. The test of regulatory effect shows that digital economy can weaken the adverse impact of population aging on high-quality economic development.
		2022 Vol. 39 (5): 3-13 [Abstract] ( 691 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 2136KB] ( 1412 )

	14	The Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Digital Economy Development
		SHE Qunzhi, WU Liu
		In the context of global climate governance action, an accurate study of the impact of digital economic development on carbon emissions is of great significance to promote the low-carbon transformation of national economic development, achieve the goal of carbon peak emission, carbon neutralization and build a community with a shared future for mankind as soon as possible. Based on the panel data of 99 countries from 1990 to 2019, this paper constructs a dynamic panel model to investigate the impact of digital economy development on carbon emissions and its mechanism. The results are as follows: (1) From the national level, the development of digital economy can significantly reduce carbon emissions, and the elasticity of emission reduction is positively related to the level of economic development of all countries; (2) The mechanism test shows that the digital economy can save energy and reduce emissions by improving energy efficiency and adjusting energy structure in both middle-and high-income countries; (3) From the industry level, the digital economy has a significant effect on reducing carbon emissions in the construction, manufacturing and energy industries of middle-income countries, and plays a significant role in manufacturing and transport industries in high-income countries, and both of them achive emission reduction by improving energy efficiency. The above conclusions provide policy implications for promoting digital economy development and climate governance, accelerating low-carbon economic transformation in various countries, and deploying Carbon peak action in China.
		2022 Vol. 39 (5): 14-24 [Abstract] ( 718 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1237KB] ( 3466 )

	25	A Study on Spatial Interactive Effects Between Urbanization Process and Ecological Efficiency in the Yellow River Basin
		LI Lu, XU Weixiang, ZHENG Jinhui
		Based on the data of 92 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2004 to 2018, this paper examines the interaction and spatial spillover effects of urbanization and eco-efficiency from the perspectives of population, land and industry by using spatial simultaneous equations, and further reveals the two-way impact of urbanization and eco-efficiency and the asymmetric relationship between different boundary areas. There results are as follow: While the urban ecological efficiency in the Yellow River Basin is gradually improving, the gap among cities is also expanding. And the population, land and industrial urbanization show a gradual increasing trend, and the development trend of industrial urbanization is more favorable; The impact of urbanization on ecological efficiency is positive, and the impact of urbanization on ecological efficiency in adjacent areas is negative, and decreases with the expansion of neighborhood distance; Ecological efficiency has a negative effect on urbanization as a whole, but the spillover effect of ecological efficiency is significantly different under different boundary neighborhoods. When the distance reaches more than 200 km, the spillover effect of ecological efficiency in adjacent areas on the urbanization of local population changes from negative to positive, and the negative effect on land urbanization weakens with the increase of distance. The impact on industrial urbanization shows a positive spillover effect within 200 km, and a negative effect beyond 200 km is gradually significant. Therefore, it is imperative to build a “local proximity” linkage effect within a reasonable regional scope to promote the improvement of ecological efficiency in the Yellow River Basin.
		2022 Vol. 39 (5): 25-34 [Abstract] ( 547 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1397KB] ( 838 )

	35	Fiscal Decentralization, Capital Mismatch and the Regional Innovation Efficiency
		HUANG Lihe, SHI Yingxin
		Based on the panel data of 30 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China from 2001 to 2018, this paper uses the trans-logarithmic production function and the super-efficiency DEA model to measure the capital mismatch and innovation efficiency of each region, and further uses a two-way fixed effect model to empirically test the impact of fiscal decentralization on regional innovation efficiency and the intermediary mechanism. The results are as follows: From a national perspective, fiscal decentralization plays a significant role in promoting innovation efficiency, mainly by reducing the degree of regional capital misallocation and slowing down the loss of innovation efficiency caused by capital mismatch; From a sub-regional point of view, in provinces with low overcapacity, fiscal decentralization can reduce the loss of innovation efficiency and promotes innovation efficiency by restraining capital misallocation. However, in the areas with high overcapacity, although fiscal decentralization reduces the loss of innovation efficiency by alleviating capital misallocation, it still has a significant inhibitory effect on innovation efficiency. And the capital mismatch is manifested as a cover effect rather than an intermediary effect. In order to improve the efficiency of regional innovation and promote high-quality economic development, we should further improve the fiscal decentralization system, optimize the financial expenditure structure of local governments, and improve the efficiency of capital allocation.
		2022 Vol. 39 (5): 35-44 [Abstract] ( 587 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1211KB] ( 992 )

	45	Reverse Technology Spillover Effect of China's OFDI and Its Influencing Factors: Study from the Perspective of Absorptive Capacity
		PIAO Yingai, YU Hong, ZHOU Xinhong
		Based on the analysis of the reverse technology spillover mechanism of China's foreign direct investment, this paper empirically tests the reverse technology spillover effect of China's OFDI and its influencing factors by using the inter-provincial panel data from 2003 to 2019. The study shows that the reverse technology spillover effect of OFDI has not yet appeared nationwide, but the influencing factors that characterize the absorptive capacity of the home country, such as the intensity of R & D investment, the level of human capital, the technological gap with the host country, the level of economic development, the level of opening to the outside world and the government's support for R & D, can significantly promote the diffusion of reverse technology spillover effect nationwide. The sub-regional test results show that the eastern region's OFDI achieves the reverse technology spillover effect, and except for the level of financial development, other factors related to absorptive capacity significantly promote the realization of the reverse technology spillover effect. Among them, the level of human capital contributes the most.And at the same time, the technology-seeking OFDI in the eastern region and its absorptive capacity of advanced technology to a certain extent led to the appearance of reverse technology spillover effects in the whole country.The foreign direct investment in the central, western and northeast regions has no significant impact on the total factor productivity of the region, and the reverse technology spillover effect has not yet appeared, except for the opening level of the northeast region. Other regional absorptive capacity-related factors do not have a positive impact on reverse technology spillover in this region.
		2022 Vol. 39 (5): 45-55 [Abstract] ( 729 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1238KB] ( 1484 )

	56	A Study on the Effect of Green Credit Policy on Firms' Export Scale
		MA Yanyan, YU Maomao, YUE Zhonggang
		Under the background of “Double Carbon”, how to restrain the export of products with high pollution, high energy consumption and resources through financial means and improve the green reputation of China's export enterprises is the focus of the high-quality development of export trade. Taking the policy document On Implementing Environmental Protection Policies and Regulations to Prevent Credit risk in 2007 as an exogenous shock, this paper uses the double difference (DID) model to analyze the impact of green credit policy on the export of polluting enterprises in China. The results show that the green credit policy suppresses the expansion of export scale of heavily polluting enterprises, and the green credit policy reduces the marginal output of enterprise elements and suppresses the expansion of enterprise export scale by “compliance cost” mechanism. The results of the triple difference model with financing constraints show that the green credit policy has a greater inhibitory effect on the export scale of enterprises with high financing constraints. The results of heterogeneity analysis show that green credit policy has a more significant inhibitory effect on the export scale of enterprises in areas with low degree of financial marketization, labor-intensive enterprises, eastern enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises. The study provides empirical evidence for the green financial policy to promote the high-quality economic development of our country.
		2022 Vol. 39 (5): 56-66 [Abstract] ( 535 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1410KB] ( 989 )

	67	Does the Policy of “Replacing Business Tax with Value-addeed Tax” Reduce Industry Monopoly Power?
		HE Hong, SHI Luhan
		The policy of “Replacing the Business Tax with a Value-added Tax” is the main tax reform policy to reduce taxes and fees. While eliminating double taxation and reducing the tax burden of enterprises, it is worth studying whether it can enhance the market vitality of enterprises and promote high-quality economic development. This paper uses the service industry data of A-share companies from 2003 to 2019 to empirically test the impact and mechanism of the policy of “Replacing the Business Tax with a Value-added Tax” on industry monopoly power. The study finds that this policy significantly reduces the monopoly power of the industry, and through a series of robustness tests and endogenous tests find that this conclusion is still valid. The function mechanism test shows that this policy reduces the monopoly power of the industry by reducing the turnover tax burden of enterprises and the overall tax burden of enterprises. And the heterogeneity test indicates that the restraining effect of this policy on industry monopoly power is more significant in small and medium-sized enterprises and enterprises in low tax competition environment. This conclusion helps to fully understand the impact and its action path of this policy on industry monopoly power, and provides an important reference for tax reform policies.
		2022 Vol. 39 (5): 67-77 [Abstract] ( 489 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1270KB] ( 613 )

	78	Industrial Policy and High-quality Development of Enterprises
		BAI Yanfei, ZHAI Dongxue, WU Delin, WANG Shixuan
		Based on the micro-enterprise data from 2007 to 2018, this paper examines the impact of the regional industrial policy of “Hero of Land Output Per Mu” on the total factor productivity of enterprises. The study shows that this industrial policy helps to improve the total factor productivity of enterprises. Cities in the stage of economic transformation can learn from this policy to speed up the optimization and upgrading of regional industries. Further study indicates that different types of enterprises have different responses to this industry-oriented policy. Large mature enterprises have a lower response to industrial policy, while small and medium-sized and innovative enterprises have a higher degree of response to industrial policy. When formulating industrial policies, the government should pay more attention to the development of “infant enterprises”, tilt more policy resources to small and medium-sized and innovative enterprises, and promote the optimal allocation of regional factors of production. At the same time, the mechanism test shows that the industrial policy of “Hero of Land Output Per Mu” is essentially to construct a set of enterprise quality evaluation system, which forces enterprises to constantly optimize their product structure by encouraging enterprises to innovate and participate in market competition. to improve the total factor productivity of enterprises. Local governments should consider formulating an “evaluation system” for high-quality development of enterprises, strengthen the guidance of high-quality development of enterprises, and constantly make new progress in promoting the high-quality development of enterprises.
		2022 Vol. 39 (5): 78-88 [Abstract] ( 544 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1272KB] ( 594 )

	89	A Study on the Influence of Management Overconfidence on Company's Illegal Behavior
		HU Haifeng, BAI Zonghang, WANG Aiping
		In recent years, China's listed companies have frequently violated rules, disrupting the healthy operation of the capital market. This paper takes A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2004 to 2019 as the research samples to explore the impact of management overconfidence on corporate violations. The study shows that management overconfidence will increase the possibility of corporate irregularities. And it is still significant after considering endogenous problems and robustness test. By distinguishing the types of violations, it is found that management overconfidence will cause the occurrence of information disclosure violations and operation violations. In terms of influence mechanism, management overconfidence urges enterprises to choose aggressive strategies and improve the level of enterprise risk-taking, which leads to the occurrence of corporate violations. Further study indicates that the improvement of external audit and equity balance, especially the increase of the shareholding ratio of institutional investors, will effectively alleviate corporate violations caused by management overconfidence. This study discusses the impact and mechanism of management overconfidence on corporate violations, provides a new regulatory perspective and empirical evidence for shareholders and regulators, and also has a certain reference value for improving the quality of Listed Companies in China.
		2022 Vol. 39 (5): 89-98 [Abstract] ( 614 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1222KB] ( 1237 )

	99	Venture Capital Network Tie and Enterprise Technology Transfer
		XU Yan, YANG Kunrui, JIAO Jijun
		Based on the data of CVSource database and State intellectual property office, this paper establishes a panel model based on the samples of enterprises with venture capital shareholders listed on the Gem from 2009 to 2019, and empirically analyzes whether venture capital can effectively promote technology transfer by relying on the information advantage brought by its network connection. It is found that when there is a network tie formed by venture capital between the invested enterprise and the enterprise with strong technology transfer ability, the invested enterprise's technology transfer level can be improved. Moreover, the promotion effect of venture capital network connection on enterprise technology transfer is characterized by high quality, that is, although venture capital network connection can not significantly promote the transfer of non-invention patent technology, it can significantly promote the transfer of enterprise invention patent technology. In addition, when the venture capital network is a strong connection, the promotion effect of venture capital network connection on technology transfer will be enhanced. And when the industry expertise of venture capital is strong, its network connection will have a stronger positive impact on the technology transfer of the invested enterprises. This study not only expands the understanding of the importance of venture capital network connection in enterprise technology transfer, but also provides an empirical reference for venture capital institutions to optimize their investment decisions on technology transfer projects from the perspective of social network.
		2022 Vol. 39 (5): 99-109 [Abstract] ( 464 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1341KB] ( 529 )

	110	Cross-ownership Shareholders and the Adjustment of Enterprise Human Capital Structure:From the Perspective of Excess Employees
		WANG Xinguang, SHENG Yuhua
		As the economic connection among enterprises in the capital market, whether cross-ownership shareholders can play a positive role as a factor of production in the process of enterprise human capital structure adjustment deserves attention. From the perspective of excess employees, this paper examines the relationship between cross-ownership shareholders and the adjustment of human capital structure bansed on samples of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2008 to 2020. The result shows that cross-ownership shareholders have a significant inhibitory effect on excess employees. And the above results remain robust after dealing with endogenous problems and a series of robustness tests. The mechanism analysis shows that cross-ownership shareholders restrain the excess employees by improving the level of corporate governance, thus playing a role in the adjustment of human capital structure. In addition, heterogeneity test states that the inhibitory effect of chain shareholders on excess employees is more significant in the context of low financial risk and state-owned enterprises. The results provide new evidence for the coordinated development effect and supervision and governance of chain shareholders, expand and enrich the related research on the economic consequences of chain shareholders, and provide supporting evidence and practical suggestions for the external governance of enterprise human capital structure adjustment.
		2022 Vol. 39 (5): 110-120 [Abstract] ( 512 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1217KB] ( 1194 )

	121	Marketization Process and Entrepreneurship
		LEI Hong, GAO Bo
		In the context of the spread of the COVID-19 and the construction of a new development pattern of double circulation, stabilizing employment and promoting innovation have become hot topics. This paper examines the impact of marketization on entrepreneurship by using provincial panel data from 2000 to 2018 in China. The study shows that market-oriented reform is conducive to enhance the innovative spirit and entrepreneurial spirit of entrepreneurs. The heterogeneity analysis of innovation subjects and entrepreneurial subjects shows that the marketization process has different effects on entrepreneurial spirit of different innovation subjects and entrepreneurial spirit of different entrepreneurial subjects. The influence of resource allocation effect and incentive effect of innovative subjects such as enterprises, universities and scientific research institutions in the process of marketization is weakened in turn. The market-oriented reform of enterprises in Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, foreign-funded enterprises, individual, private enterprises, mixed-ownership enterprises, state-owned enterprises, collective enterprises, etc. has weakened the impact on entrepreneurial spirit in turn. The results of differences at the industry level show that the manufacturing industry is most affected by the marketization process. Based on this conclusions, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions, such as continuously promoting the process of market-oriented reform in various regions and creating a market environment for fair competition.
		2022 Vol. 39 (5): 121-130 [Abstract] ( 494 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1685KB] ( 959 )

	131	A Study on the Coordinated Development of Financial Science and Technology and Regional Economy
		ZHANG Haijun, HUANG Feng
		Based on the provincial panel data from 2012 to 2018, this paper uses mixed regression model to analyze the driving effect of fintech on the coordinated development of regional economy, and on this basis, tests the mechanism effect of economic efficiency improvement and industrial structure optimization and adjustment. The empirical results are as follows: (1) The direct effect of fintech on promoting coordinated economic development is not significant, but there is a strong indirect effect; (2) The effect of the development of financial science and technology on the coordinated development of regional economy is different, and the effect is the greatest in the western region. The level of financial science and technology can effectively promote the coordinated development of regional economy. (3) The negative effects brought about by the development of financial science and technology, such as the unreasonable development of industrial structure should be on guard against. In the era of digital economy, the development of financial science and technology has important strategic significance. We should use financial science and technology to drive the high-quality and coordinated development of regional economy.
		2022 Vol. 39 (5): 131-139 [Abstract] ( 949 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1193KB] ( 1233 )

	140	A Study on the Effect of High-quality Development of Fiscal Subsidy
		ZHENG Fei, LI Teng, LIU Han
		Based on the data of Chinese listed companies from 2017 to 2019, this paper studies the impact of fiscal subsidies on the high-quality development of enterprises. The empirical results show that government subsidies, as an important financing channel for enterprises, significantly promote the high-quality development of enterprises. The analysis of the mechanism shows that government subsidies can promote the high-quality development of enterprises by alleviating financing constraints, promoting technological innovation and improving enterprise performance. Further study finds that this impact has obvious heterogeneity in different cycles of industrial development. In other words, although government subsidies significantly improve the high-quality development of enterprises in the formation period and growth period, the impact on the mature period and recession period is not significant. This difference is also reflected in the nature of enterprise property rights. This study theoretically and empirically explains the impact mechanism and heterogeneity of government subsidies on the high-quality development of enterprises. And from the perspective of optimizing the allocation of funds, it gives some policy suggestions to improve the efficiency of government subsidies.
		2022 Vol. 39 (5): 140-150 [Abstract] ( 740 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1315KB] ( 959 )

	151	A Study on the Influence of Financial Transfer Payment on Local Financial Education Expenditure Behavior
		HAN Liangliang
		Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2008 to 2018, this paper empirically studies the impact of fiscal transfer payments on local fiscal expenditure on education. The results are as follows: (1) General transfer payments and special transfer payments have a negative impact on local government fiscal education expenditures, while tax rebates have a positive impact on local government fiscal education expenditures; (2) From a regional perspective, fiscal transfer payments have a negative impact on local government fiscal education expenditures in regions with higher economic levels, and have a positive impact on local government fiscal education expenditures in regions with backward economic levels. Specifically, general transfer payments and tax returns have a negative impact on local government fiscal and educational expenditure in areas with higher economic levels, while the negative impact of special transfer payments on local government fiscal and educational expenditure is more obvious in the central region. Therefore, constantly improving the modern system related to financial transfer payment, building a diversified local government performance evaluation system and scientifically measuring the scale of financial transfer payment will be conducive to the high-quality development of education in the new era.
		2022 Vol. 39 (5): 151-160 [Abstract] ( 462 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1204KB] ( 555 )

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