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Economic Survey
 
2022 Vol.39 Issue.2
Published 2022-03-10
3 Identification Method and Application of Spatial Organization of Regional Economic Multi-polar Network:A Case Study of Guangdong Province
QIN Chenglin, HUANG Dan
Based on the characteristics of Multi-polar network spatial organization, this paper constructs a multi-polar network spatial organization identification method from the aspects of the development of spatial economic network, the coexistence of multiple growth poles, and the symbiotic relationship between growth poles and spatial economic network. In addition to using the existing spatial economic network and growth pole analysis methods for reference, this paper establishes a measure index which can comprehensively reflect the economic attribute and relation attribute of the growth pole, and selects the alternative growth poles according to the Rank-Size Rule so as to construct a multi-growth pole coexistence identification method. And by introducing the symbiotic thought and theory of ecology, this paper analyzes the symbiotic relationship between multi-growth poles and spatial economic network for the first time. The paper also use this method to reveal the phenomenon of multi-polar network spatial organization in Guangdong province. First, the scale and connectivity of Guangdong spatial economic network continue to increase, and the network density shows a trend of first decline and then rise, but the overall development level is far from the ideal state, and it is spatially concentrated in the Pearl River Delta. Second, a pattern of coexistence of Shenzhen and Guangzhou growth pole has been formed, and Foshan and Dongguan have the potential to develop into growth poles. Third, there is an asymmetric and mutually beneficial symbiosis relationship between the growth pole and the spatial economic network. All these show that the method of establishing Multi-polar network spatial organization identification is effective and can be used as a reference for similar research.
2022 Vol. 39 (2): 3-11 [Abstract] ( 507 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 2862KB] ( 659 )
12 Analysis of the Influence of Fintech on High-quality Development of Urbanization and Its Mechanism
WANG Bin
Under the realistic background of China′s economy from high-speed growth stage to high-quality development stage, this paper tries to clarify whether fintech is conducive to the high-quality development of China's urbanization, and then explore the mechanism of this impact. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China during 2011 to 2018, this paper constructs a Spatial Durbin Model to empirically study the impact of fintech on the high-quality development of urbanization and its formation mechanism. The results show that there is a significant positive spatial correlation in the high-quality development level of inter-regional urbanization. On the whole, the impact of fintech on the high-quality development of urbanization in this region shows significant U-shaped nonlinear characteristics, but the spatial spillover effect is not obvious. And the influence of fintech on the high-quality development of urbanization varies greatly between regions. There is a significant U-shaped effect in the central and western regions, but there is no such non-linear relationship in the eastern region. Further mechanism analysis shows that fintech affects the high-quality development of urbanization through two channels. One is technological innovation, the other is public financial expenditure in the field of energy conservation and environmental protection. Therefore, all provinces should formulate targeted fintech development strategies, actively improve the efficiency of technological innovation, and increase government financial support to energy-saving and environmental protection enterprises, so as to promote the high-quality development of urbanization.
2022 Vol. 39 (2): 12-23 [Abstract] ( 909 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1926KB] ( 1027 )
24 Economic Agglomeration and Location Choice of China's Private Sector PPP Investment
LI Zhen, SHEN Yanyan
PPP has become one of the important tools for Chinese governments at all levels to relieve financial pressure and improve the quality of public services. Based on the micro data of China's private sector PPP investment in the World Bank PPI database and the economic characteristics data of 254 prefecture level cities, this paper studies the impact of economic agglomeration on the location choice of private sector PPP investment. The results show that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic agglomeration and private sector PPP investment location choice. After taking into account the endogenous problems and the impact of interference control policies, the results are still valid by using different economic agglomeration indicators and threshold effects. Further study finds that the PPP project cycle, the business environment where the project is located and the market potential will play a positive role in regulating the relationship between the two. Especially when economic agglomeration exceeds a certain degree, longer project cycle, good business environment and market scale can magnify the “scale effect” of economic agglomeration and alleviate the decline of private sector participation caused by excessive economic agglomeration. On the other hand, the proportion of private sector investment and the scale of project investment will enhance the “crowding effect” of economic agglomeration and play a negative role in regulating the relationship between them.
2022 Vol. 39 (2): 24-34 [Abstract] ( 747 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1263KB] ( 662 )
35 Zero Rent Transfer of Land and Loss of Agricultural Production Efficiency
ZHANG Yongfeng, WANG Kunyi, LU Yao
Zero rent transfer of land exists widely in rural areas with obvious characteristics of “acquaintance society” and “differential order pattern”. Based on the data of Chinese household financial survey in 2015, this paper examines the marginal impact of zero rent in land transfer on agricultural production efficiency and its possible mechanism. The results show that the zero rent transfer of land significantly reduces the land efficiency and labor efficiency of agricultural production and expands the part of technical inefficiency in agricultural production, especially for the loss of agricultural production efficiency caused by the transfer direction of ordinary farmers, the planting type of cash crops and the transfer households whose land lease term is too short or too long. And there are two specific action paths. One is “zero rent-insufficient investment in agricultural production-loss of agricultural production efficiency”, in which the crowding out effect of zero rent on long-term investment in agricultural production is significantly greater than that of short-term investment in agricultural production. The other is “zero rent-decline of willingness to protect cultivated land-loss of agricultural production efficiency”. Further research shows that agricultural technology guidance can alleviate the loss of agricultural production efficiency caused by zero rent. The confirmation of agricultural land ownership can not inhibit the phenomenon of zero rent in land transfer, but the intermediary service of land transfer can effectively reduce the behavior of farmers' land zero rent transfer. Therefore, local governments need to increase agricultural investment subsidies, speed up the promotion of agricultural technical guidance services, and actively build a unified and open, orderly and two-way rural land circulation market, in order to reduce the loss of agricultural production efficiency caused by land zero rent transfer.
2022 Vol. 39 (2): 35-45 [Abstract] ( 661 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1216KB] ( 1585 )
46 The Dispute over the Path of Moderate Scale Management of Agriculture: Land Scale or Service Scale
MEI Fuchun, MA Kaixuan
Moderate scale operation is the only way to develop modern agriculture, but there have differences between service management scale and land management scale for a long time in China. Based on the perspective of actual input and the time series of grain input-output in China from 1990 to 2018, this paper empirically analyzes the appropriateness of grain production scale and the relationship between the two paths by using production function and cash cost-income ratio. The results show that compared with the current agricultural production conditions, China's actual scale of grain production is basically moderate. In practice, the two paths of service scale and land scale coexist, complement each other, and are not mutually exclusive. The symbiosis of the two paths is embodied in the coexistence of time and complementarity in space, which is due to the time-space mismatch of agricultural production factors in China for a long time. The policy significance of these findings is that the government should formulate and improve relevant promotion policies from the perspective of equality and complementarity, that is, to implement inclusive policies for all possible realization paths, so as to promote the formation and improvement of the appropriate scale of agricultural management. At the same time, the government should implement differentiation policies for micro-subjects with different endowments in order to optimize the combination of agricultural production factors and form appropriate scale operation capacity as soon as possible.
2022 Vol. 39 (2): 46-56 [Abstract] ( 804 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1276KB] ( 1258 )
57 A Study on the Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty on China's Export Upgrading
LI Hongbing, SUN Litang, WEN Lei
As one of the most important bilateral relations in the world, Sino-US economic and trade frictions and the uncertainty of trade policy have aroused concerns about the transformation and upgrading of China's exports. Based on the enterprise-product level micro data from 2000 to 2013 and the industry level data from 1999 to 2019, this paper uses the double difference model to identify the effect of the decline of trade policy uncertainty on the export upgrading of China's manufacturing industry. The study shows that the decline of trade policy uncertainty significantly promotes the export upgrading of enterprises measured by export technology complexity, and has a positive effect on the export technology complexity of coastal enterprises, small and medium-sized micro-enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises. Based on the research of influence mechanism, it is found that the reduction of trade policy uncertainty can increase the complexity of export technology by encouraging enterprise innovation and alleviating financing constraints. Furthermore, the decline of trade policy uncertainty can also significantly promote the increase of export technology complexity of the industry through downstream industrial linkages, for labor-intensive industries, capital-intensive industries and industries with high and low market concentration. However, for high market concentration industries, the decline of trade policy uncertainty will restrain the increase of export technology complexity through upstream industrial linkages, while the impact on low market concentration industries is the opposite.
2022 Vol. 39 (2): 57-67 [Abstract] ( 1142 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1315KB] ( 1930 )
68 China's OFDI, Spatial Spillovers and the Industrial Structure Upgrading of Countries along the “Belt and Road”
WANG Hui, ZHONG Xin
In order to clarify the relationship between China's OFDI and the industrial structure upgrading of countries along the “Belt and Road” ( B&R ) from the perspective of spatial correlation, this paper adopts the panel data of 52 B&R countries from 2006 to 2017 and constructs a Spatial Durbin Model to empirically analyze the impact of China's OFDI's on the industrial structure upgrading of B&R countries based on the mechanism analyzing. This study finds that China's OFDI is conducive to the industrial structure upgrading of B&R countries and has significant positive spatial spillover effect. Among them, the technology transfer OFDI has the largest direct effect on promoting the industrial structure upgrading of B&R countries, followed by capital transfer OFDI and labor transfer OFDI, while labor transfer OFDI has the largest spatial spillover effect on promoting the industrial structure upgrading of B&R countries, followed by technology transfer OFDI and capital transfer OFDI. Moreover, the spatial spillover effect of China's OFDI as a whole or of the different transfer types is stronger than the corresponding direct effect. The heterogeneity analysis shows that among the B&R countries, regardless of direct effect or spatial spillover effect, China's OFDI has the greatest effect in promoting the industrial structure upgrading of ASEAN countries, followed by the effect of promoting the industrial structure upgrading of the other Asian countries along the “Belt and Road”, and the effect of promoting the industrial structure upgrading of European countries along the “Belt and Road” is the least.
2022 Vol. 39 (2): 68-77 [Abstract] ( 736 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1210KB] ( 1555 )
78 Industrial Integration and High-quality Development of Manufacturing Industry: Based on Intermediary Effect of Collaborative Innovation
LI Lei, LIU Rongzeng
Based on provincial panel data from 2005 to 2019, this paper constructs a mediating effect model to empirically test the high-quality development effect on manufacturing industry and the intermediary effect through collaborative innovation of industrial convergence. The results are as follows: Firstly, whether it is the integration of manufacturing industry and service industry or the integration of advanced manufacturing industry and modern service industry, industrial convergence can promote the high-quality development of manufacturing industry, and the intermediary effect of collaborative innovation is very significant. Secondly, the intermediary effect of the convergence of (advanced) manufacturing industry and (modern) service industry on the high-quality development of manufacturing industry through collaborative innovation is obviously weaker than the direct effect. Thirdly, the effects of the convergence of advanced manufacturing industry and modern service industry on the high-quality development of manufacturing industry are weaker than those of the convergence of manufacturing industry and service industry, especially the intermediary effect. According to the conclusion of empirical analysis and the actual situation of the integrated development of manufacturing and service industry in China, this paper puts forward policies and proposes to promote the convergence of manufacturing and service industry from aspects of encouraging the development of advanced manufacturing and modern service industry, breaking the policy and mechanism constraints of industrial convergence, and giving full play to the supporting role of a new generation of information technology for industrial integration, in order to achieve high-quality development of manufacturing industry.
2022 Vol. 39 (2): 78-87 [Abstract] ( 983 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1355KB] ( 1559 )
88 Can the Agglomeration of Producer Services Contribute to the High-quality Development of Cities in the Yellow River Basin?
LI Benqing, ZHOU Qingxiang, YUE Hongzhi
Accelerating the development of producer services is the inherent requirement and inevitable choice to promote the high quality development of the Yellow River Basin. From the perspectives of human capital, industrial structure and productivity, this paper theoretically explains and empirically tests the mechanism of producer services agglomeration affecting the high-quality development of cities in the Yellow River Basin, and draws the following conclusions. (1) Both specialized and diversified cluster of producer services can significantly promote high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin, but the impact on different regions and different city sizes is different. (2) The specialized agglomeration of producer services is beneficial to the high-quality development of midstream and downstream cities, while the diversified agglomeration plays a significant role in promoting the high-quality development of upstream and downstream cities. (3) The specialized agglomeration of producer services can promote the economic quality and efficiency of medium-sized cities and small cities, while the diversified agglomeration is conducive to the high-quality development of large cities and medium-sized cities. (4) Specialized clusters of producer services promote high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin through human capital improvement and productivity growth, while diversified clusters promote high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin through human capital improvement, structural optimization and upgrading, and productivity growth.
2022 Vol. 39 (2): 88-98 [Abstract] ( 612 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1211KB] ( 859 )
99 A Study on the Impact of Accredited Directors on Investment and Fund-raising of Venture Capital Institutions
HAN Jin, CHEN Minling
On the basis of collecting the data of financing and exit events from 2000 to 2019, this paper uses multivariate regression model and Heckman model to study the impact of venture capital accredited directors on their investment and fund-raising, as well as the moderating effects of heterogeneous venture capital institutions' reputation, joint investment strategy and geographical proximity on the above effects. The results show that accrediting directors can strengthen the control of venture capital over the enterprise, promote the board of directors to play an effective supervisory role, gain the trust of investors, ultimately improve the investment performance and expand their fund-raising scale. The characteristics of heterogeneous venture capital institutions can regulate the relationship among accredited directors, their investment performance and fund-raising scale, that is, for investment institutions with high reputation, joint investment strategy and long-distance investment, the role of accrediting directors to promote their investment performance is more obvious for investment institutions with high reputation, independent and long-distance investment, the role of accrediting directors to promote their fund-raising scale is more obvious. This paper reveals the impact mechanism of venture capital accrediting directors on its own investment and fund-raising, and also provides empirical evidence for improving the investment performance of venture capital and improving the governance of enterprise board of directors.
2022 Vol. 39 (2): 99-109 [Abstract] ( 640 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1212KB] ( 841 )
110 Fault-tolerance Construction, Responsible Incentive and Corporate Innovation
ZHAO Ling, HUANG Hao
Based on the quasi-natural experimental scenario of “implementation method of fault tolerance and error correction mechanism” issued by large state-owned enterprise groups, this paper empirically examines the impact of failure-tolerance exemption on state-owned enterprises' willingness to innovate.The results of the double difference model show that the implementation of fault-tolerant exemption system significantly improves the level of R & D investment of state-owned enterprises and stimulates the enthusiasm of enterprises to participate in innovation.After a series of robustness tests, this conclusion is still valid. Further cross-sectional analysis shows that the above promotion effect is more obvious when senior executives have a higher chance of political promotion, have work experience in open coastal cities and face greater economic policy uncertainty. Further research shows that the failure-tolerant and error correction mechanism can improve the innovation level of enterprises, and make them obtain significant positive market performance. The results expand and enrich the relevant literature in the field of enterprise innovation behavior and science and technology evaluation, and explore the mechanism that the change of trial and error tolerance environment affects executive's willingness to innovate. And it provides a reference for the follow-up research on the relationship between performance evaluation and state-owned enterprise innovation, and provides empirical evidence and theoretical reference for policy-making departments to promote the construction of trial and error-tolerant systems and norms.
2022 Vol. 39 (2): 110-119 [Abstract] ( 849 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1205KB] ( 1390 )
120 Mixed Ownership, Equity Incentive Vesting Restriction and TFP
WANG Hao
Based on the data of A-share companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2006 to 2019, this paper studies the impact of exercise restrictions on equity incentives on total factor productivity under the background of mixed ownership reform. The are following findings. (1) Equity incentive can promote TFP. According to the bank authority standard, equity incentive can be further divided into long-term equity and short-term equity.The exercise restriction of equity incentive has an incentive effect on total factor productivity, among which the incentive effect of short-term equity is greater. (2) Mixed equity degree can promote the incentive effect of equity incentive (including long-term and short-term equity) on TFP and has a greater role in promoting the short-term equity incentive effect. (3) In state-owned holding companies, reducing state-owned equity can improve TFP and has a positive regulatory effect on equity incentive effect. And in non-state-owned holding companies, increasing state-owned equity can't significantly improve TFP, but has a positive regulatory effect. The conclusion of the study verifies the effectiveness and reality of mixed ownership reform and equity incentive system to a certain extent, and provides empirical reference for companies to strengthen internal governance and government agencies to improve regulatory measures, continue to promote the reform of state-owned enterprises and actively develop mixed ownership economy.
2022 Vol. 39 (2): 120-130 [Abstract] ( 634 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1206KB] ( 973 )
131 Marketization of Interest Rate and Innovation Output of Listed Firms
WU Chen, WANG Kedi
On September 24, 2013, the loan base rate (Loan Prime Rate,LPR) centralized quotation and issuance mechanism was implemented. In the same year, the People's Bank of China selected nine banks as the first batch of LPR quotation banks to further deepen the market-oriented and independent pricing mechanism of interest rates. This paper takes the implementation of the first batch of LPR centralized quotation banks selected by the People's Bank of China as a quasi natural experiment to test the economic consequences of the impact of interest rate marketization on the innovation behavior of listed companies. Based on the data of A-share listed companies from 2008 to 2017, this paper uses a time-varing DID model and the empirical test finds the following results. (1) The innovation output of listed companies affected by the marketization of interest rate decreases obviously. (2) Considering the difference of enterprise size and risk, it is found that the innovation output of small-scale and high-risk listed companies affected by interest rate marketization is significantly suppressed, but this effect has no effect on large-scale and low-risk listed companies. (3) After the robustness test, further study shows that due to the impact of interest rate marketization, listed companies' innovation financing constraints become tighter, resulting in listed companies to reduce innovation input and thus restrain innovation output. This paper points out that while promoting the marketization of interest rate, we should optimize the financing structure, increase the proportion of direct financing and ease the constraint of innovative financing for improving corporate innovation.
2022 Vol. 39 (2): 131-140 [Abstract] ( 876 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1200KB] ( 798 )
141 A Study on Cash Dividend Policy under Differentiation Strategy
FENG Zhanbin, LI Guomin
Based on the financial data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2018 and from the perspective of financing constraints, this paper empirically examines the impact of corporate strategic differences on cash dividend policy, as well as the regulatory effects of the nature of property rights and the level of marketization on the relationship between them. It is found that corporate strategy difference will reduce cash dividend payment tendency and cash dividend payment level, while the state-owned property right and the higher marketization level weaken the negative impact of corporate strategy difference on cash dividend policy. Further research shows that the strategic difference reduces the tendency and level of cash dividend payment by increasing the degree of financing constraint.In theory,the combination of strategic theory and dividend distribution theory expands the application of strategic theory in financial research.The results show that enterprises should formulate cash dividend policies based on their own strategic choices, and enterprises with differentiation strategies should adopt prudent cash dividend policies to alleviate financing constraints.
2022 Vol. 39 (2): 141-151 [Abstract] ( 885 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1226KB] ( 711 )
152 Financial Revenue Target and Non-Tax Burden of Enterprises
WANG Liqing, GU Yu
In recent years, the standard degree of non-tax revenue collection and management in China has been strengthened. However, the fiscal revenue target still has an impact on the non-tax burden of enterprises, and the increase of the non-tax burden of enterprises may offset the effect of tax reduction and fee cuts. Based on prefecture-level municipal revenue target data and enterprise micro data, this paper explores the relationship between revenue targets in general public budgets and the non-tax expenditures of firms through empirical tests. The study finds that the higher the target faced by the government is, the greater the non-tax expenditures of firms. When faced with unmet targets or overachieved targets, the local government is motivated by, respectively, a refusal to rank at the bottom or a desire to move up. In contrast, when local governments meet their targets, they reduce their efforts in order to avoid raising their targets for the following year in a target-oriented manner. In the heterogeneity test, it is found that urban homogeneity will improve the competitive effect and make local governments strengthen non-tax management. Further,compared with state-owned enterprises and large enterprises, non-listed companies and small firms bear more of the non-tax burdens. The extended analysis shows that the completion of tax revenue has a negative effect on the collection of non-tax revenue. Local governments often choose to increase non-tax revenue to cope with the lack of tax revenue, and there is a certain degree of Tax-Fee substitution phenomenon. The study of this paper has a certain reference value for the reform of the tax collection and management system in China.
2022 Vol. 39 (2): 152-160 [Abstract] ( 643 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1184KB] ( 1193 )
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