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Economic Survey
 
2021 Vol.38 Issue.2
Published 2021-03-10
5 Analysis of Spatial-temporal Evolution of Urban Water Resources Utilization Efficiency and Its Club Convergence in Northwest China
GAO Xincai1,2, YIN Songkui1
In this paper, the SE-SBM model based on undesirable outputs is used to measure the water resources utilization efficiency of 33 prefecture-level cities in Northwest China from 2010 to 2018. And the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and the existence of club convergence are investigated by means of standard deviation ellipse, spatial autocorrelation and spatial Markov. The results indicate that although 90.9% of the comprehensive technical efficiency of urban water resources utilization in northwest region is in a state of non-DEA-efficient, it shows a fluctuating upward trend generally, and the spatial distribution pattern of water resources utilization efficiency is relatively stable from the northwest to the southeast. Although the direction of comprehensive technical efficiency and pure technical efficiency is slightly weakened, the direction of scale efficiency is slightly enhanced. Similarly, there is a significant positive spatial autocorrelation for each efficiency type of water resources utilization, and the “low-low” type of plate agglomeration is more significant. And there is a strong club convergence in the efficiency of water resources utilization, and the spatial effect had substantial impact on club convergence.
2021 Vol. 38 (2): 5-13 [Abstract] ( 918 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 2908KB] ( 1051 )
14 A Study on the Incentive Effect and Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Decentralization on the Activity of Regional Innovation
HU Lina1, XUE Yang2
Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2017, this paper uses the systematic GMM method to empirically analyze the impact of fiscal decentralization on regional innovation activity and its mechanism.There are following findings: (1) Fiscal decentralization has a significantly positive and incentive effect on the activity of regional innovation, and can promote the improvement of regional innovation activity. The greater the degree of fiscal decentralization is, the stronger the activity of regional innovation will be. (2) Fiscal decentralization has a significantly positive and incentive effect on fiscal science and technology expenditures, and fiscal science and technology expenditures also have a significantly positive and incentive impact on regional innovation activity. Fiscal decentralization indirectly affects regional innovation activity by affecting fiscal science and technology expenditures, that is, there is an intermediary effect in fiscal science and technology expenditures. (3) After controlling the fiscal science and technology expenditures, the impact of fiscal decentralization on regional innovation activity is still significantly positive. The financial science and technology expenditures are also significantly positive, and the fiscal science and technology expenditures are part of the intermediary variables. On the basis of the above results, the authors think that the activity of regional scientific and technological innovation should be strengthened from the aspects of perfecting the design of fiscal decentralization system, improving the performance evaluation mechanism of local financial science and technology expenditure, and reforming the structure of scientific and technological innovation expenditure.
2021 Vol. 38 (2): 14-22 [Abstract] ( 831 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1677KB] ( 991 )
23 A Study on the Influence of the Development Strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt on the Regional Economic Relations: An Empirical Test Based on DID Modal
CHEN Lei, HU Lijun, HE Fang
As one of the three development strategies in China, the Yangtze River Economic Belt has an important impact on strengthening regional economic ties and promoting coordinated economic development. Based on the analysis of the mechanism of the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt on regional economic ties, this paper calculates the intensity of economic ties between provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt by using the urban gravity model and the intensity of central functions. Then, by using the panel data of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and its surrounding provinces and cities from 2008 to 2017, the author studies the influence of the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt on the intensity of regional economic ties by means of double difference model. The results show that the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt can significantly improve the intensity of the central function of the region as a whole and strengthen regional economic ties. However, the promoting effect is significantly different in the eastern, the middle and the western regions. The promoting effect of the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt on the intensity of economic ties in the west is greater than that of the middle region, but it is not significant in the east. Therefore, the authors suggest that the government should increase its support to the Yangtze River economic Belt, optimize resource allocation, strengthen regional division and cooperation, expand the intensity and scope of economic radiation of regional central cities, especially the eastern provinces and cities, and promote the coordinated development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.
2021 Vol. 38 (2): 23-32 [Abstract] ( 771 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1412KB] ( 1228 )
33 The Impact of Distance Between Poverty-stricken Villages and Government on Eliminating Poverty: Under the Background of Poverty Alleviation
ZHOU Linna1, ZHENG Hao2, DING Yugang2, LI Yuanqi3
This paper empirically analyzes the influence of distance between poverty-stricken villages and government on the probability and speed of eliminating poverty under the poverty alleviation by using binary choice model, ordered model and OLS regression. It is found that the distance between the poor villages and the government affects the poverty alleviation of the poor villages through the political performance effect and economic effect. Although both straight distance and traffic distance between poverty-stricken villages and county governments have significant influence on the probability and speed of eliminating poverty, the distance between poverty-stricken villages and county governments has no significant effect. The authors also find that the distance from the poor villages to the county government has a U-shaped influence on the probability and the speed of eliminating poverty.The potential reasons for the U-shaped influence are that the poverty-stricken villages farther away from the county government and those closer to the county government respectively receive more policy support and have more economic opportunities.
2021 Vol. 38 (2): 33-43 [Abstract] ( 833 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1441KB] ( 642 )
44 “Non-Grainization” of Planting Structure: the Dimensional Logic and Evidence of Farmland Lease Stability
GENG Pengpeng
This paper interprets the concept of farmland lease stability from the dimensions of government, market and lease term, and validates the impact of the three dimensions of lease stability and their interactions on farmers' planting behavior. The results show that the lease stability of government dimension has a positive effect on “Grain Orientation” of farmer's planting behavior, and the lease stability of the leases dimension and the instability of market-oriented leases will significantly induce the “non-grain-based” planting choice of the transferred households. The estimated results of the interactive terms of the three dimensions show that the stability of the government-dimensional lease will weaken the positive effect of the market-dimensional lease instability on the “non-grainization” of the planting structure, while the instability of the lease in the market dimension will strengthen the positive effect of the lease stability on the “non-grainization”. The stability of the lease can eliminate the positive impact of government services on the “grain-oriented” planting structure. Further evidence shows that the transferee's understanding of national policies, transaction motives and land transfer disputes play a regulatory role in the planting impact of lease stability respectively. This paper emphasizes that the stability of leases has the dual genes of prior determination and post-impact. Therefore, strengthening government service functions, realizing long-term transfer to operation and stabilizing rent levels are important ways of improving the stability of the lease of both parties in the circulation transaction and adjusting the planting structure.
2021 Vol. 38 (2): 44-53 [Abstract] ( 659 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1229KB] ( 1096 )
54 Investment Facilitation, Foreign Direct Investment and Total Factor Productivity of Countries along the “Belt & Road”
YANG Dongxu1, YU Jinping2
At present, promoting investment facilitation and achieving high-quality development have become an important part of the in-depth implementation of the “Belt & Road Initiative”. Based on theoretical analysis, this paper empirically examines how the investment facilitation promotes the progress of TFP in countries along the “Belt & Road” route through FDI. The study found that investment facilitation construction is helpful to improve the TFP of countries along the “Belt & Road Initiative”,?and its mechanism is mainly realized through the spillover effect of FDI (especially cross-border M&A) inflows. And different kinds of investment facilitation construction, such as infrastructure, market environment, system quality and financial services, all contribute to the improvement of TFP in countries along the route. Heterogeneity analysis shows that investment facilitation construction has a significant promoting effect on TFP in countries along the Southeast Asia, the West Asia, and the Central and Eastern Europe regions, but not obvious in countries along the Central Asia, the South Asia and CIS regions. The promoting effect of investment facilitation construction on TFP of countries along the high economic development stage is greater than that of the countries along the middle and low economic development stage. After the “Belt & Road initiative” is proposed, the promoting effect of of investment facilitation on the TFP of countries along the route is greater than before.
2021 Vol. 38 (2): 54-63 [Abstract] ( 873 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1250KB] ( 1404 )
64 A Study on the Influencing Factors and Investment Performance of Enterprises' Active Participation in Investment along the “Belt and Road Initiative”
WANG Xiaoyu, HAO Lili
Since the “Belt and Road initiative” is proposed, Chinese enterprises have responded positively with fruitful results. Based on the enterprises' micro-data, this paper analyzes the characteristics of the enterprises that actively participate in the investment along the “Belt and Road Initiative”, and how these characteristics affect their investment performance. The study finds that after the initiative is proposed, labor-intensive companies and companies with fierce competition in the product market are more inclined to invest in countries along the “Belt and Road”, and this feature is more obvious in non-state-owned enterprises. Further test shows that there is significantly positive correlation between investment performance and labor intensity, but there is not significant correlation with the degree of product market competition. The authors think that this study not only has certain implications for understanding the real effects of economic policies, but also helps companies to analyze whether it is suitable for them to participate in relevant strategic planning.
2021 Vol. 38 (2): 64-73 [Abstract] ( 813 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1237KB] ( 1112 )
74 A Study on the Influence of Enterprise Investment Efficiency under the Proposal of “Belt and Road Initiative”
WEI Lin, XIAO Mengyao, XU Liwen
Based on the data of A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2017, this paper uses the double-difference method of propensity score matching to examine the impact of the “Belt and Road Initiative” on the enterprises' investment efficiency. The study found that the “Belt and Road Initiative” initiative, as an important means of allocating government resources and achieving macro strategic goals, can significantly improve the investment efficiency of participating enterprises. After using the ancient “Silk Road” as a tool variable to alleviate endogenous problems, changing explained variables, and sub-sample regression according to enterprise size and legal system environment, the conclusion is still valid. In addition, the paper explores the influence mechanism of the “Belt and Road Initiative” on investment efficiency from the perspective of overcapacity. The result shows that the “Belt and Road Initiative” can alleviate domestic excess capacity, promote the distribution and flow of factor resources and market share, make use of the production capacity of domestic enterprises effectively and improve the investment efficiency of enterprises. Therefore, the study not only enriches the research of macroeconomic policy and micro enterprises' behavior, but also has a certain reference value for the following-up promotion of the “Belt and Road Initiative”.
2021 Vol. 38 (2): 74-81 [Abstract] ( 982 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1477KB] ( 1191 )
82 How Does Human Capital Misallocation Distort the Upgrading of Industrial Structure?
LI Yong, MA Fenfen
Based on the balanced panel data of 30 provinces from 2000 to 2018, this paper examines the intermediary mechanism of human capital misallocation that affects industrial structure. The results show that human capital misallocation has a negative impact on industrial structure upgrading. The further test results of intermediary effect indicate that human capital misallocation not only inhibits technological innovation and leads to deviation of industrial structure, but also restricts income growth of competitive sectors, widens the income gap between the two sectors and hinders the upgrading of industrial structure. The are some intermediary effects in the model which account for 17.93%, 14.54%, 15.16% and 19.73% respectively. Further sub-regional regression results also show that the distortion effect and mediation effect in the eastern region are smaller, while the distortion effect and mediation effect in the central and western regions are larger. Therefore, correcting the mismatch of human capital and realizing the correct allocation of human capital between monopoly departments and competitive departments is helpful for enterprises to promote the upgrading of industrial structure and realize high-quality development.
2021 Vol. 38 (2): 82-90 [Abstract] ( 926 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1220KB] ( 2278 )
91 An Empirical Study on the Evolution of Retail Format and Enterprise Performance in the Era of Digital Economy
TIAN Hongbin1,2, YANG Xiuyun1, TIAN Qitao3
Based on the micro-data of retail enterprise level from 2005 to 2018, this paper uses the double difference method to analyze the impact of retailer business model choices at different stages on enterprise performance from the evolution of the retail industry. The results show that the “pure entity” retail has shifted to “online” retail. Due to the substantial increase in operating costs, operating expenses and the management complexity in the process of expanding network retailing channel, the retail enterprises have suffered significant profit loses. Therefore, the physical retailers who carry out online retailing do not get an increase in their business performance. However, at the stage of “online” retail shifting to “new retail”, the synergy effect of digital operation and “omni-channel” improve the enterprise's operational efficiency and capital turnover efficiency, and promotes retail enterprises to obtain higher profits and performance. Therefore, it can be said that “new retail” improves the performance of retail enterprises. The heterogeneity results indicate that the impact of business format evolution on retail enterprises in the eastern region is higher than that of the central and the western regions, but there is no significant impact on retail enterprises with different attributes. This conclusion can provide micro-level empirical evidence support for the development of retail industry formats and changes in enterprise performance in the context of the digital economy.
2021 Vol. 38 (2): 91-101 [Abstract] ( 1091 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1259KB] ( 1695 )
102 A Study on the Influence of Overseas Returned Directors on the Performance of Cross-border M&A
WANG Aiqun, YAN Panpan, ZHAO Dong
Taking Chinese A-share listed companies that completed cross-border mergers and acquisitions from 2009 to 2017 as samples, this paper studies the influence of overseas returned directors on the performance of cross-border M&A. It is found that the directors returning from overseas have a significant positive impact on the performance of cross-border M&A, which is realized by improving M&A integration ability, R&D output and production efficiency. Further analysis shows that, compared with their overseas study experience, directors' overseas working experience has a greater incremental contribution to the performance of cross-border M&A. Compared with the returnee directors in ordinary positions, the returnee directors in key positions (CEO or general manager) play a more significant role in promoting the performance of cross-border M&A. This conclusion has provided empirical evidence for the optimization of cross-border M&A of Chinese enterprises, the selection of board members and the play of governance effects.
2021 Vol. 38 (2): 102-111 [Abstract] ( 729 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1226KB] ( 1316 )
112 Corporate Risk-taking and the Accuracy of Analysts' Earnings Forecast
ZHANG Yanchao, SUN Guangguo
Taking the A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2007 to 2018 as study samples, this paper examines the relationship between the level of corporate risk-taking and the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecast. The results show that risk-taking significantly reduces the accuracy of analysts' earnings prediction, which is still valid after endogenous and robust tests. Further analysis indicates that the shareholding of institutional investors and the property rights of state-owned enterprises weaken the negative correlation between risk-taking and the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecast. The degree of financialization and agency costs aggravate the negative correlation between risk bearing and the accuracy of analyst earnings forecast. This conclusion has some implications for investors, regulators and other external stakeholders.
2021 Vol. 38 (2): 112-121 [Abstract] ( 805 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1233KB] ( 1224 )
122 A Study on the Influence of Internet on Entrepreneurship: Analysis from the Perspective of “Mass Entrepreneurship and Innovation”
LIU Xinxin, HUI Ning
Based on two dimensions of entrepreneurial spirit and innovation spirit, this paper uses the panel data of 30 provinces, autonomous regions and cities in China from 2006 to 2017 to explore the impact of internet development on entrepreneurship. Empirical research results show that the development of the internet has significantly promoted the “two-wheel” drive of entrepreneurial spirit and entrepreneurial innovation spirit, among which the spillover effect of entrepreneurial innovation spirit is more significant. From a regional point of view, there are significant differences in the impact of the internet on entrepreneurship, from which the central and western regions can get greater benefits. In addition, the study of panel threshold model indicates that there is an inverted u-shaped positive nonlinear relationship between the internet and the entrepreneurial spirit, while there is a nonlinear driving effect of positive marginal increase on entrepreneurial innovation spirit. At the same time, this threshold effect also has a certain spatial heterogeneity. This conclusion shows that the internet can not only stimulate entrepreneurship in stages, but also narrow the gap of entrepreneurship between regions. It can also provide important inspiration for China to implement the “Internet +” strategy and build an “Entrepreneurship and Innovation Upgrade”.
2021 Vol. 38 (2): 122-130 [Abstract] ( 833 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1228KB] ( 723 )
131 Tax Shock, Anticipation Effects and Elasticity of Tax in China
LIU Fang
Based on the quarterly macroeconomic data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, this paper introduces expected and unexpected tax rate shocks under the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, deduces the policy functions of endogenous variables, such as output on tax shocks, and analyzes the impact of expected effects on China's tax rate elasticity and tax reduction policy effects by the way of vector autoregressive model. Through study, the author comes to the following conclusions: (1) In the short term, the impact of tax reduction (whether expected shock or unexpected shock) has an expanding effect on output, consumption and investment; (2) The expected behavior of economic subjects expands the effect of tax reduction policy; (3) In the long term, the stimulating effect of expected tax reduction policy is better than that of unexpected tax reduction policy. In order to ensure the medium-speed and smooth operation of the macro-economy, we should still carry out tax reduction measures in the future. If the government can announce the tax reduction policy 1-3 quarters in advance, it will significantly enhance the stimulus effect.
2021 Vol. 38 (2): 131-140 [Abstract] ( 525 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1864KB] ( 720 )
141 A Study on the Regional Differences in the Efficiency of Local Government Debt Expenditure in China: Based on the Analysis of DEA Modal Before and after the Implementation of the New Budget Law
ZHANG Zirong
Based on the data of local government debt balance in China from 2012-2018, this paper uses the DEA model to analyze the regional differences in the efficiency of local government debt expenditure.The empirical results show that, on the whole, the implementation of the new budget law is conducive to the improvement of the efficiency of local government debt expenditure, but there are obvious regional differences. And the efficiency of local government debt expenditure in the central region and most of the eastern regions shows a trend of improvement, the expenditure efficiency of most western regions shows a downward trend. Therefore, we should continue to strengthen local government bond financing, select differentiation strategies according to regional differences and focus on the efficiency of debt expenditure in the western region.In addition, it is necessary for us to control the scale of local government debt and improve its efficiency in the western region.
2021 Vol. 38 (2): 141-150 [Abstract] ( 802 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1210KB] ( 1035 )
151 Analysis on the Growth Effect of China's Capital Account Opening: Based on Endogenous Growth Model
FANG Chenxi
Based on China's medium-and long-term capital account data from 1994 to 2018, this paper constructs an endogenous growth model under open conditions and studies the effects of capital account liberalization on economic growth.The empirical results show that capital account liberalization can promote economic growth under certain conditions, but at the same time it also rises the risk of excessive foreign borrowing. For post-industrial countries, due to the decline of capital output elasticity, the debt risk of excessive foreign borrowing caused by capital account liberalization is also reduced. However, for countries with an aging population, in the case of a decline in the savings rate, capital account liberalization is conducive to maintain a high economic growth rate. The significance of this study is that it demonstrates the rationality of the timing for China to promote the reform of capital account opening up. It is suggested that we should promote the reform of exchange rate marketization and RMB internationalization comprehensively, adhere to two-way opening of the capital market, and let China share the fruits of the free flow of capital elements with the world.
2021 Vol. 38 (2): 151-160 [Abstract] ( 627 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1225KB] ( 1003 )
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