Abstract Based on the quarterly macroeconomic data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, this paper introduces expected and unexpected tax rate shocks under the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, deduces the policy functions of endogenous variables, such as output on tax shocks, and analyzes the impact of expected effects on China's tax rate elasticity and tax reduction policy effects by the way of vector autoregressive model. Through study, the author comes to the following conclusions: (1) In the short term, the impact of tax reduction (whether expected shock or unexpected shock) has an expanding effect on output, consumption and investment; (2) The expected behavior of economic subjects expands the effect of tax reduction policy; (3) In the long term, the stimulating effect of expected tax reduction policy is better than that of unexpected tax reduction policy. In order to ensure the medium-speed and smooth operation of the macro-economy, we should still carry out tax reduction measures in the future. If the government can announce the tax reduction policy 1-3 quarters in advance, it will significantly enhance the stimulus effect.
2021, Vol. 38 
