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Economic Survey

	2020 Vol.37 Issue.6 Published 2020-11-10

	1	A Study of the Context, Spatial Patterns and Influencing Factors of Managing Urbanization
		CAI Zhibing, MAN Jianyuan, ZHANG Keyun
		Urbanization does not only include population urbanization, industrial urbanization and social urbanization, but is also closely related to the transformation of the administrative system, i.e. the transformation of towns into streets and village committees into neighbourhood committees. Therefore, the urbanization of administrative system is also one of the types of urbanization. Based on the data of administrative division structure, we defined the concept of management urbanization and measured the management urbanization level of 293 cities, and found that the management urbanization level at the level of township, street and village neighborhood committee is much lower than the population urbanization level. Compared with the population urbanization level, the western region lags behind the urbanization level of townships and village neighborhood committees the most, while the eastern region lags behind the urbanization level of neighborhood committees the most. It was found that variables such as economic development level, urban-rural income gap, and the proportion of non-agricultural industries had a facilitating effect on the management urbanization, while variables such as population urbanization speed, urban land price, and financial pressure had a negative effect on the management urbanization. Finally, according to the mechanism of the six variables influencing the urbanization level, it is proposed that in the future, we should pay attention to the coordinated promotion of urbanization and population urbanization, construct the adjustment and transformation mechanism of central government legislation, provincial government leadership, local and municipal government planning, and county and district government leading, pay attention to the cultivation of healthy economic development model, increase the financial support to the urbanization process and formulate corresponding strategies for specific problems.
		2020 Vol. 37 (6): 1-9 [Abstract] ( 717 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1253KB] ( 1554 )

	10	Can the Smart City Construction Become the New Momentum of Economic Growth?
		ZHOU Xiaomin, LI Lianyou
		As a new urban development mode, smart city has attracted much attention since the pilot construction. Scientific evaluation of the role of smart city construction plays an important role in building smart city so to promote economic growth. Based on the panel data of 171 prefecture level cities in China from 2005 to 2016, on the basis of mechanism analysis, this paper uses the difference-in-differences method to test how the construction of smart city affects economic growth. The mechanism analysis shows that the construction of smart city can achieve economic growth through allocation effect, structure effect and agglomeration effect. The empirical analysis shows that compared with non-smart cities,smart city construction has significantly promoted the regional economic development of smart cities and can provide new impetus for regional economic development. On average, after the policy pilot, the economic growth of smart cities is significantly higher than that of non-smart cities by 5.4-5.9 percentage points; smart city construction uses modern information technology to improve the economy by optimizing resource allocation. The three mechanisms of agglomeration level and industrial structure upgrading drive regional economic growth; the role of smart city in promoting economic growth increases with the improvement of human capital level, the reduction of government intervention level, the improvement of financial development level and informatization level. The conclusion of this paper has an important policy meaning to continue to promote the construction of smart city and build a new urban development model to promote economic growth.
		2020 Vol. 37 (6): 10-17 [Abstract] ( 1408 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1236KB] ( 1283 )

	18	Does Smart City Construction Promote the Quality of Urban Development?——An Evaluation of Policy Effect Based on Multiphase DID Method
		ZHAO Caijing, WU Bojun
		In order to solve those urban disease problems encountered in China’s urban development, also to promote the healthy and sustainable development of urban economy, as well to improve urban management capacity and service level, the state has launched the Smart City pilots at the end of year 2012. Based on the data of 271 prefecture-level cities, this paper used the SBM Model with Undesirable Output to estimate the Green Total Factor Productivity in China. Then, this paper uses the difference-in-differences method to investigate whether national Smart City pilots can help promote the quality of urban development. The regression results indicate that after controlling regional factors, socio-economic factors and various fixed effects, the construction of smart cities has significantly enhanced the quality of pilot cities, but has heterogeneity. Compared with non-pilot areas, the quality of economic development in the pilot areas has been significantly improved, especially in eastern and western regions, and it is more significant in cities with higher administrative rank, lower human capital, and less population. Furthermore, in order to better verify the impact of smart cities on urban development, this paper conducts a series of robust tests. On this basis, this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations to promote better implementation of smart city pilot projects in cities.
		2020 Vol. 37 (6): 18-27 [Abstract] ( 1030 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1372KB] ( 1612 )

	28	Human Capital of Entrepreneurs and the Performance of Returning Home Ventures——An Analysis Based on Survey Data of 2,139 Returning Entrepreneurial Enterprises
		WANG Yi, DING Li, LIU Na
		Based on the survey data of 2139 start-ups collected in 2019, this paper studies the effect of human capital on the performance of start-ups. The results show that: On the whole, the entrepreneur’s education, training, health status and work or occupation have significant positive effects on the business performance. Among the different types of home-going start-ups, the educational level, the post of going out for work or starting a business have significant positive influence on the business performance of the start-up; Entrepreneurial Training can significantly improve the business performance of the development-type Home Entrepreneurial Enterprises, physical health has a significant impact on the survival-type and value-type entrepreneurial performance. Further study found that education level, job or entrepreneurial position, entrepreneurial training has a significant positive impact on the business performance of home-based entrepreneurial enterprises in central and western regions; Entrepreneurial Training and physical health had a significant positive impact on business performance in the secondary sector of the economy and mid and low end service industries. Based on the above conclusions, it is suggested that local governments should formulate policies to strengthen the training for returning home to start-up businesses, especially the technical training for start-up enterprises in the central and western regions.
		2020 Vol. 37 (6): 28-38 [Abstract] ( 924 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1281KB] ( 690 )

	39	A Study of the Impact of Different Social Interaction Channels on Rural Households’ Financial Market Investment Behavior
		WANG Ruoshi, HU Shihua
		Based on the data of China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) in 2013 and 2015 with the Porobit and Tobit model, this paper studies the impact of different social interaction channels on rural households’ financial market participation and financial asset allocation. The results showed that the traditional embedding social interaction on the strength of genetic and geo-relationship has obvious resource repeatability but no significant effect on the financial asset allocation decision in rural China. The disembedding and online social interaction are free from the restriction of closed territory and homogeneous relations, which help rural households to obtain heterogenous information, and promote the participation of rural households in the financial market. It also affects the willingness of rural households to invest high-risk financial assets and enhance portfolio return. Moreover, by taking into account of potential endogenous problems and robustness tests, the results still hold. The policy implication is to focus on the positive effect of new social interaction on rural households’ financial market investment behavior, that is, to accelerate the construction of modern information, transportation and other infrastructure in rural areas. It is also necessary to improve the quality of financial information transmission in different media and improve rural households’ financial literacy through new social interaction channels.
		2020 Vol. 37 (6): 39-47 [Abstract] ( 642 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1263KB] ( 1336 )

	48	An Empirical Research on the Influence of Quantity and Quality of FDI on the Quality of Cities’ Economic Growth in China
		LIU Gefei, REN Baoping
		Based on the data of 37 key cities from 2000 to 2017, this paper uses the panel threshold model to explore the impact of both quantity and quality of FDI on the quality of economic growth and its constraint mechanism. The results show that the quantity and quality of FDI do have a significant impact on QEGI and there is a threshold effect, while the constraint mechanism also exists when economic development level, infrastructure and national quality are threshold variables. The results are stable. Therefore, in order to improve cities’ quality of economic growth, the way is not only to control the number reasonably while improve the quality of FDI, but also to improve cities’ endogenous development ability such as economic development level, infrastructure and national quality.
		2020 Vol. 37 (6): 48-56 [Abstract] ( 660 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1257KB] ( 1438 )

	57	Productive Services Trade Liberalization and Manufacturing Industry Global Value Chain Upgrading
		ZHU Tingjun, BAN Yuanhao
		Based on the World Bank’s Service Trade Restriction Database and OECD input-output database, this paper studies the impact of production service trade liberalization on the global value chain of manufacturing industry from the perspective of the global value chain length and position. The study results indicate: Although the liberalization of trade in productive services shows a restraining effect on the manufacturing industry global value chain position, the restraining effect is mainly on the processing trade manufacturing industry, and it has a significant positive impact on the status of the non-processing trade manufacturing industry global value chain position. After distinguishing the technical level, it was found that the liberalization of productive service trade showed a restraining effect on low and medium tech manufacturing industry, and had no significant impact on high-tech manufacturing industry. Further studies show that the liberalization of producer services can restrain the promotion of global value chain status through squeezing effect and technology dependence effect.
		2020 Vol. 37 (6): 57-65 [Abstract] ( 661 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1264KB] ( 1323 )

	66	International Trade, Bias of Technical Change and Industrial Energy Intensity
		LI Kaijie
		Based on the capital-energy-labor nested CES production function, this paper analyzes energy intensity effect of biased technical change induced by international trade. When trade causes the technological change biased towards capital, it could reduce energy intensity by decreasing the energy relative factor share. Combined with China’s 36 industrial sectors data from 1995 to 2017, it examines this effect. Using the normalized supply side system method, we also measure the direction of technical change, identify the mechanism of the energy intensity effect of biased technical change induced by trade. The results show that biased technical change caused by trade could reduce energy intensity significantly through the effect on energy relative factor share. However, for the sectors of different openness, industries and competitiveness, the energy intensity effect differs evidently. The technical change of whole industry is biased towards capital, which is the main reason why international trade reduces energy intensity. The research not only provides new sights for understanding the change of China’s industrial energy intensity, but also gives the policy reference of decreasing industrial energy intensity.
		2020 Vol. 37 (6): 66-75 [Abstract] ( 673 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1280KB] ( 1963 )

	76	A Research on the Impact of National High-teach Zone Establishment on Enterprise Innovation Performance
		WANG Wensheng, XU Tianshu
		Taking the establishment of national high-tech zones as a “quasi-natural experiment” and adopting the Difference-in-Differences-Propensity Score Matching, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of the establishment of national high-tech zones on the innovation performance of enterprises, based on the data of micro-enterprises from 2006 to 2018. Empirical results show: The establishment of the national high-tech zone has a significant role in promoting corporate innovation performance; The national high-tech zones in underdeveloped areas in the central and western regions have a more significant impact on corporate innovation performance; National high-tech zones can better promote the innovation performance of non-state-owned enterprises and high-tech industries. By using the intermediary effect, this paper also tests the mechanism of the national high-tech zone on enterprise innovation performance, and finds that the national high-tech zone affects enterprise innovation performance through R&D talents and financing constraints. The research conclusion of this paper shows that the national high-tech zone is an important strategy to promote the development of high-tech industries and the improvement of enterprise innovation capabilities. The government should take advantage of the situation and make full use of the non-market effect.
		2020 Vol. 37 (6): 76-87 [Abstract] ( 897 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1304KB] ( 1332 )

	88	An Analysis of the Impact of Government Subsidies on Innovation Enthusiasm of Manufacturing Enterprises from the Perspective of Institutional Environment
		XUE Yang, HU Lina
		Based on the perspective of institutional environment, this paper examines the impact of government subsidies on the innovation enthusiasm of manufacturing companies, and discusses the heterogeneous factors such as the ownership and life cycle of manufacturing companies. The results show that: (1) Government subsidies can increase the R&D investment in manufacturing companies, and significantly increase the innovation enthusiasm of manufacturing companies. At the same time, the optimization of the institutional environment is conducive to enhancing the role of government subsidies in the innovation incentive effect of manufacturing companies. (2) From the perspective of the nature of ownership, the incentive effect of government subsidies on innovation of non-state-owned manufacturing enterprises is stronger than that of state-owned manufacturing enterprises. Under the effect of the regulatory effect, the regulatory effect of the institutional environment of state-owned manufacturing enterprises is higher than that of non-state-owned enterprises. (3) From the perspective of the life cycle of enterprises, the incentive effect of government subsidies on innovation in manufacturing enterprises is most significant in the growth period of the enterprise, followed by the start-up period, but not in the mature period. Life cycle effects are not significant.
		2020 Vol. 37 (6): 88-96 [Abstract] ( 721 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1254KB] ( 1461 )

	97	The Non-dynamic Threshold Effect of the Influence of Government Innovation Subsidy on Enterprise Innovation——A Research from the Perspective of Financing Constraints
		JIANG Qibo, TAN Qingmei
		Based on the government innovation subsidy and enterprise innovation panel data of GEM listed companies, this paper studies the influence of government innovation subsidy on enterprise innovation through non-dynamic threshold model and path analysis model. It is found that government innovation subsidy effectively promotes enterprise innovation. There is a single threshold effect on the impact of financing constraint on government innovation subsidy and enterprise innovation. Further research finds that government innovation subsidy has an incentive effect on enterprise R&D investment, rather than a crowding out effect. Encouraging enterprises to increase R&D investment and then improving enterprise innovation is the mechanism by which government innovation subsidy affect enterprise innovation. The conclusion provides empirical evidence that government innovation subsidy can play an incentive role on enterprise innovation. It is good for the government to improve the innovation subsidy policy, effectively play the role of fiscal expenditure in stimulating enterprise innovation, promote enterprise independent innovation and accelerate the pace of innovation-driven development.
		2020 Vol. 37 (6): 97-105 [Abstract] ( 788 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1327KB] ( 1716 )

	106	Business Model, Market Competition and the Level of Management Accounting Application
		CAO Xiaoyu, WANG Man, YU Haoyang
		Based on the theory of contingency, this paper uses factor analysis and hierarchical regression analysis to explore the influence of two contingency factors—business model and market competition on the level of management accounting application. The results reveal that: under the novelty-centered business model, the level of management accounting application is higher than efficiency-centered business model; the higher market competition level enterprise faces, the higher level of management accounting application is; the different impact of business model on the application level of management accounting is more significant in which market competition level is higher. This study broadens the perspective of management accounting application based on contingency theory, and provides references for enterprises to apply management accounting in different environments combined with their own characteristics.
		2020 Vol. 37 (6): 106-117 [Abstract] ( 678 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1848KB] ( 1237 )

	118	Governance Environment, Equity Incentive Vesting Restrictions and Corporate Earnings Forecast Strategy
		WANG Hao
		Chinese equity incentive regulations require the listed companies set vesting restrictions and installment unlock arrangement, which are the characteristics of vesting restrictions. This paper studies the effect of vesting restrictions on corporate earnings forecast strategy under the internal and external governance environment based on the annual data of A share listed firms from 2010—2018. The research evidence shows that Long-term equity can significantly improve the formal precision and essential truth, and the information decision usefulness is enhanced, however the impact of Short-term equity is not significant, and it may reduce the information quality. Further tests show that, the effect of vesting restrictions depends on the internal and external governance environment; Long-term equity can improve the information quality under the conditions of low ownership concentration, low institutional investors’ shareholding, high market level and high law level, and Short-term equity effect is not statistically significant; Under the low law level, both Long-term and Short-term equity can improve the essential truth, and Short-term equity has greater incentive effect. These results may enrich the relevant research, and provide some new empirical evidence on the influence of executive incentive on corporate information disclosure behavior.
		2020 Vol. 37 (6): 118-127 [Abstract] ( 615 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1356KB] ( 1095 )

	128	Spatial Relevance Effect of Fiscal Technology and EducationExpenditure on Haze Pollution
		PANG Yumeng, LIU Zhen, PAN Yuchen
		The Nineteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China for the first time regards beautiful China as an important goal of building a strong socialist modernization country, and regards strengthening environmental protection as an opportunity and an important grasp to promote economic and social development and ecological environment protection. The governance of environmental pollution is closely related to the fiscal expenditure of local governments. Based on the perspective of fiscal technology and education expenditure, this paper empirically examines the relationship between fiscal technology and education expenditure and haze pollution by using the data of 273 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2004 to 2017 through the spatial panel model. The results show that fiscal technology expenditure and education expenditure are negatively correlated with haze pollution intensity, and the effect of technology research expenditure in haze treatment is better than that of education expenditure. The results of sub-regional show that the impact of fiscal technology and education expenditure on haze pollution has regional heterogeneity, showing a weakening situation from east to west. From the perspective of the whole country, there is a certain lag effect on the impact of fiscal technology expenditure and education expenditure on haze pollution. Therefore, the key point at this stage is implementing the main responsibility of local governments in environmental protection, giving full play to the role of local public fiscal expenditure.
		2020 Vol. 37 (6): 128-138 [Abstract] ( 703 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1330KB] ( 1417 )

	139	Financialization, Employment and Employees’ Income Share——A Study Based on Financial Assets Allocation
		ZHAO Dezhi, AN Suxia
		It is very important for enterprises to finance and improve its way to affect the share of labor income. Few literatures have explored this in detail. According to the time limit of financial assets allocation of non-financial enterprises as a breakthrough, this paper takes the income share of employees of listed companies as the micro proxy index of the labor income share, and studies the influence of the way of enterprise financialization on the income share of employees from the motivation of financial assets allocation. The results show that the total amount of financial assets allocation significantly reduces the share of employees’ income. It is found that the short-term financial asset allocation based on the “preventive saving” motivation will significantly increase the income share of enterprise employees, while the long-term financial asset allocation based on the “profit seeking” motivation will reduce the income share of enterprise employees. The analysis of the impact mechanism shows that the total amount of financial assets allocation and the holding of long-term financial assets reduce the share of employees’ income by reducing employment. Further research shows that the lower the quality of internal control and the higher the opacity of information, the stronger the effect of financial asset allocation on the reduction of employees’ income share, and there is industry heterogeneity. From the micro level, this paper finds that the way of enterprise finance, especially the short-term financial assets, has a positive impact on the labor income share of employees, which provides a certain reference for enterprises to optimize the financial allocation structure.
		2020 Vol. 37 (6): 139-150 [Abstract] ( 701 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1386KB] ( 1714 )

	151	A Research on Rish Taking Channel of Monetary Policy Based on Micro Loan Data——From the Perspective of Bank Characteristics, Borrowing EnterpriseCharacteristics and Loan Contract Characteristics
		DONG Huaping, SUN Yong
		By using the loan data of 372 listed companies in China from 1998 to 2017, this paper identifies and studies the risk-taking channel of China’s monetary policy by matching bank characteristic data, borrowing firm characteristic data and loan contract characteristic data, and taking the risk premium of bank loans as an agent variable of bank risk-taking. The results show that: after controlling the influence of bank characteristic variables, borrowing firm characteristic variables and loan contract characteristic variables, the risk-taking channel of monetary policy in China still exists. The impact of monetary policy on bank risk-taking is asymmetrical, banks who have large-scale assets, poor liquidity, high capital adequacy rate and non-state-owned are less affected by monetary policy. Bank risk-taking to enterprises who have state-owned shares and low default risk is less affected by monetary policy, but bank risk-taking to enterprises who have real estate enterprises is more affected by monetary policy. This means that the loose monetary policy environment makes it easier for non-state-owned enterprises and SME to obtain financial support, but also causing more capital flows to real estate and other industries, thus affecting financial stability.
		2020 Vol. 37 (6): 151-162 [Abstract] ( 652 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1296KB] ( 1128 )

	163	Transfer Payment Path of Relieving Local Government’sImplicit Debt RiskAn Empirical Analysis Based on PVAR Model
		FAN Yuxiang, GUAN Zhihua
		In order to explore relationship between current fiscal transfer payment system and local government’s implicit debt behavior, this paper uses provincial panel data from 2006 to 2017 and builds PVAR model to make analysis of the dynamical relationship between transfer payment policy and implicit debt of local government in the national, eastern, central and western regions. The study finds that the transfer payment policy still helps local government to relieve the implicit debt, especially in the western regions. In the eastern regions, there is no obvious relationship between implicit debt and transfer payment. In the central regions, transfer payment can alleviate the demand of debt caused by the gap between income and expenditure in the short term. But in the long run, it may bring about the “common pool” effect. Therefore, the transfer payment system can be used to regulate the implicit debt behavior of local governments. On the basis of the relationship between transfer payment and implicit debt of local governments, the transfer payment system in different regions should be established, which helps to relieve the risk of local government implicit debt effectively.
		2020 Vol. 37 (6): 163-176 [Abstract] ( 620 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1824KB] ( 1207 )

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