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Economic Survey
 
2018 Vol.35 Issue.4
Published 2018-07-10

1 On the Construction and Evaluation of China’s Innovation Ecosystem
JIANG Qing-guo
Within the analytical frame of four spiral structure’s open innovation system, this paper uses the provincial panel data from 2010 to 2015 to build the evaluation index system of innovation ecosystem and then evaluates it. The conclusion of the study shows that at the national level, China’s innovation ecosystem is improving but the innovation abilities of enterprises and research institutions are still low. From the regional level, the innovation ecosystem in eastern regions is better with a coordinated development of all innovation bodies compared with that in the central, eastern and northeastern regions. From the provincial level, the innovation ecosystems in Beijing, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Shanghai are relatively developed while those in Inner Mongolia, Hainan, Ningxia and Qinghai are underdeveloped. The above conclusion indicates that under the innovation-driven development strategy, governments of all levels should build a unique and relatively complete innovation ecosystem.
2018 Vol. 35 (4): 1-8 [Abstract] ( 1039 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1766KB] ( 749 )
9 Innovation Agglomeration, Knowledge Spillovers and the Regional Income Gap
ZHANG Wen-wu, ZUO Fei
Using provincial data of China during the period of 1990—2013,this paper measures the extent of innovation agglomeration and knowledge spillovers in 30 provinces and cities, and empirically analyzes the combined influence those two factors have on regional income gap. The results show that: (1)Innovation agglomeration and knowledge spillovers play significant roles in promoting industrial agglomeration and the regional economic growth. (2) The huge difference in the degree of innovation agglomeration among regions and space limitations of knowledge spillovers lead to the widening of the regional income gap. (3)The distance to the nearest regional innovation center city determines economic status in which regions closer to the innovation centers enjoy higher economic growth rate. To narrow the regional gap while sustaining a long-term economic growth, it is a must to optimize the density and distribution of innovation centers through urbanization, to strengthen the sharing of innovation resources among regions and to promote regional collaborative innovation, which will eventually lead to the realization of coordinated regional development.
2018 Vol. 35 (4): 9-14 [Abstract] ( 898 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 733KB] ( 903 )
15 Evaluation of the Provincial Innovation Competitiveness and Research of the OptimizationModel of Innovation Clusters Under Government Assistance
——An Empirical Research Based on Particle Swarm Optimization
WANG Peng, LI Shuo-shuo
Government support plays an important role in enhancing regional innovation capability and the formation of innovation clusters with distinctive features. Using provincial innovation index system, this paper studies the collaboration of the government for innovation and the value of innovation competitiveness through data envelopment analysis (DEA) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In addition, this paper combines the collaboration of the government with the inter-provincial competition and cooperation by using Particle Swarm Optimization to explore the optimization trend of provincial innovation clusters. The empirical results show that: only 19% of the provincial governments support shows the relative effectiveness of regional innovation; provincial innovation competitiveness is generally low and innovation capacity needs to be further improved. With the integration of government support for innovation into the inter-provincial competition and cooperation, China’s innovation activity presents agglomeration towards areas with high innovation abilities and three innovation clusters are formed.
2018 Vol. 35 (4): 15-22 [Abstract] ( 803 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1294KB] ( 782 )
23 Can the New Rural Old-age Pension Substitute Rural Family Support for the Elderly?——Evidence from Regression Discontinuity Based on Gender Difference of Children
ZHANG Zhao-hua, WANG Lei, LUO Yu-xi
Through an inverse probability weighting of sample data from the 2013 CHARLS and the combination of the regression discontinuity design with the “Difference in Differences” approach, this study addresses the substitution effect of China’s new rural old-age pension program on traditional family-based elder care from perspectives of financial support and spiritual comfort. The results reveal that pension income reduces the pecuniary support from adult children by 23%. In addition, a pension income decreases the probability of co-residence between adult children and their parents, as well as the frequency of adult children’s visit. From sample regression results, it is observed that pension income makes a big difference in families with sons while showing no influence on families with daughters only. Generally, these results indicate that social pension weakens the emotional ties between adult children and parents though it enhances their financial independence. Therefore, along with the deeper development of social pension, great attention should also be paid to the non-monetary support by policy makers to improve the psychological well-being of the elderly in an attempt to reduce the number of empty nest families.
2018 Vol. 35 (4): 23-29 [Abstract] ( 1157 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 975KB] ( 1080 )
30 Agricultural Industry Cluster, Information Acquisition and Agriculture Income
LIU Xue-hua, DU Jian-jun, YANG Ling-li
Using the field survey data of four counties and cities in Shandong Province and the IV-GMM method and the mediating effect model, this paper empirically studies the hypothesis and its transmitting mechanism that agricultural industry clusters affect agricultural returns through effective market information acquisition. The results show that agricultural producers and operators in agricultural industrial clusters have a production and operating income 74.8% higher than those outside industrial clusters. Information acquisition is a mediating variable for agricultural clusters to increase income in that they significantly raise the income by boosting up the amount of information supply. The mediation effect of information supply accounts for 5.9% of the total effect.
2018 Vol. 35 (4): 30-36 [Abstract] ( 881 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1093KB] ( 770 )
37 Expenditure Effect and Income Effect of New Cooperative Medical System
MA Xiao-meng
Based on HCW disposition effect model and IEPSVAR system, the measured results show that NCMS obviously reduces the medical expenses of rural residents. The potential medical expenses in different districts are 17.3% to 322.8% higher than the practical expenses. The effect is especially obvious in the seriously polluted or highly developed districts. The growth effect on rural residents’ income could vary from 0.19% to 3.55% among different districts. It can be concluded that the NCMS not only truly reduces the burden of medical treatment for farmers, but also promotes the economic development in rural areas.
2018 Vol. 35 (4): 37-43 [Abstract] ( 1031 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 984KB] ( 784 )
44 Does the Latest Rural Land Right Verification Promote the Transfer of Farmland?
HUANG Pei-hong, LI Qin, LI Da-sheng
Using the data of CHARLS2011 and 2015 and the information of the agricultural departments in each province and city, this paper adopts the perspective of rural households and the Propensity Score Matching in its examination of how rural land right verification affect farmland transfer. The results show that the rural land right verification reduces the possibility of outward transfer of farmland by 7.3%. The area of outward transfer of farmland per household is also reduced by 0.66 acres while the rent of outward transferred farmland per acre is increased by 44.9 yuan per year. The possibility of inward transfer of farmland is increased by 1% but the transfer area and rent are not affected. To establish an efficient agricultural land transfer market, it requires more than the rural land right verification. The acceleration of the education of professional farmers and development of agricultural modernization is also needed to make sure a combined effect of the market construction, farmers education and industrial optimization.
2018 Vol. 35 (4): 44-49 [Abstract] ( 1015 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 790KB] ( 825 )
50 Enterprise Heterogeneity, Host Country Characteristics and theChoice of Entry Mode of OFDI
CHENG Shi-xiong, LIU Dan
This paper builds Logistic Binary Choice Model to analyze Chinese firms’ OFDI entry mode on the basis of Chinese firms’ OFDI samples collected from Zephyr Database from 2010 to 2015, combined with the relevant data from annual reports of these firms. The empirical analysis studies the influencing factors of Chinese firms’ OFDI entry mode in light of the combination of heterogeneous features of Chinese firms with national or regional features of host countries. The results confirm that bigger firms with relatively higher R&D level prefer greenfield investment. Cross-border Mergers & Acquisitions are preferred when the host country enjoys a higher level of governance with a bigger market size and a shorter cultural distance. In contrast, the strategic asset, management level, the productivity of the firm and the start-up cost in host country have no significant impact on the choice of Chinese firms’ OFDI entry mode.
2018 Vol. 35 (4): 50-58 [Abstract] ( 1167 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1114KB] ( 804 )
59 Re-Examination of Effectiveness of Capital Controls Under Financial Cycle Conditions
LIANG Si, WANG Yu-jian, ZHANG Pin-yi
Capital flows are the macroscopic representation of investors’ cross-border investment behavior. The hypothesis is put forward based on the expectation theory, which is under conditions of volatile financial cycles, the difference of investors’ expected income leads to the different investment decisions in different stages of the financial cycle that ultimately leads to the nonlinear feature of the influence of capital controls on capital flow. This paper uses threshold model with the panel data of 19 countries from 1990 to 2015. It tests the rationality of the hypothesis and the result shows that the effect of capital controls in financial boom and recession periods is not as good as that in financial stability. And compared with developed countries, the effectiveness of capital controls in developing countries is more responsive to the financial cycle. Therefore, in financial boom and recession periods, the government should not only strengthen capital controls but also make use of macro-prudential management measures and make intervention of investors expectation.
2018 Vol. 35 (4): 59-64 [Abstract] ( 933 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 775KB] ( 900 )
65 Effect of Intellectual Property Protection in Importing Countries onChina’s Export of High-Tech Products——An Analysis Based on Three Margins
LIU Jun-ting, QU Li-na, TONG Ji-ying
Using the bilateral trade data of China’s high-tech products export to 31 trading partner countries(regions) between the years of 2002 and 2015, this paper refers to the decomposition method of Hummels and Klenow (2005) and decomposes the export of high-tech products into a ternary-margin framework, including extensive margin, quantity margin and price margin. Then the paper empirically analyzes the effect of intellectual property protection on the three margins of China’s high-tech products exports. The results show that strengthening the intellectual property protection in import countries has a positive impact on both the extensive margin and price margin, which is conducive to the diversity of China’s high-tech products exports and the rise of export price. However, it will reduce the quantity margin of China’s export of high-tech products, which will hinder the increase of export quantities. Therefore, China should improve the intellectual property protection system and enhance the capacity for independent innovation to promote the healthy and sustained growth of high-tech product exports
2018 Vol. 35 (4): 65-71 [Abstract] ( 1108 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 821KB] ( 779 )
72 China’s Trade Cost Based on Value-Added Trade: Measurements, Effects and Determinants
XU Tong-sheng, XU Rui
Adopting the Extended Gravity Model, this study calculates bilateral trade costs of China and 60 trade partners in terms of value-added trade. It is found that China’s bilateral trade costs are dropping gradually, among which the annual drop with countries along “The Belt and Road” line is greater than that with other counties. The contribution rate of the decline in China’s bilateral trade costs on value-added trade growth is 29%. The empirical analysis of determinants in bilateral value-added trade costs shows that GVC is also a major factor other than those traditional ones of tariffs and distance. Therefore, China could further deepen the division of global value chain and accelerate information infrastructure construction in its endeavor to reduce bilateral trade costs and to promote the trade facilitation and development of value-added trade.
2018 Vol. 35 (4): 72-78 [Abstract] ( 822 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 922KB] ( 754 )
79 The Impact of Decomposed Trade on Technological Progress In China’s Industries
YANG Jun-ling, LIN Ji-hong
By setting up dynamic panel models and adopting the data of Chinese industries from 1995 to 2009, this paper tries to explore the differences of influence that different types of trade have on the technological progress of industries. The result shows that the impact of trade on China’s technological progress is not entirely consistent, and there are differences among trade categories as well as among industries. For the technological advancement in the manufacturing industry, three types of trade, namely intermediate product exports, intermediate imports for export and intermediate imports for domestic production, have promoting effects and the positive effect of intermediate imports for export trade is the highest, whereas final consumer goods exports and import trade have deterring effect. For the service sector, three types of trade, namely final consumer goods exports, imports and imports of intermediates for export all have promoting effects and imports of intermediates for export trade has the highest positive effect while intermediate product exports and intermediate goods import trade for domestic production trade have deterring effect.
2018 Vol. 35 (4): 79-85 [Abstract] ( 909 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 838KB] ( 871 )
86 Financial Agglomeration, Industrial Structure Upgrading and China’s Economic Growth
XIE Ting-ting, PAN Yu
With the arrival of the new economic norm, China’s economy has officially entered the era of “structural deceleration”. This paper studies the internal relationship among the financial agglomeration, industrial structure upgrading and economic growth in 30 provinces, cities and regions in China based on the spatial econometric model. The research shows that financial agglomeration and industrial structure upgrading have a significant positive promoting effect on China’s economic development at the present stage, which has a strong radiation effect on adjacent areas and serves as the major driving force in China’s economic growth. The open market, labor and material capital investment have a positive effect on economic growth, and government behavior has a certain degree of spatial inhibition. The linkage of financial agglomeration and industrial structure is conducive to regional economic growth and space spillover
2018 Vol. 35 (4): 86-93 [Abstract] ( 1167 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1138KB] ( 945 )
94 Circulation Industry Agglomeration, Regional Economic Efficiencyand Urban-Rural Income Gap
YU Tong-hui
Based on the provincial panel data from 1990 to 2016 in China, this paper explores the relationship among circulation industry agglomeration, regional economic efficiency and urban-rural income gap through Panel Threshold Estimate andSystem Generalized Moment Estimation. The results show that: Firstly, the relationship between circulation industry agglomeration and regional economic efficiency has typical nonlinear characteristics. In the stage of lower level economic development, circulation industry agglomeration inhibits the improvement of regional economic efficiency. Once the level of economic development crosses a certain threshold, circulation industry agglomeration begins to promote regional economic efficiency. Secondly, there is always a significant negative dynamic correlation between circulation industry agglomeration and urban-rural income gap. Thirdly, regional economic efficiency helps to narrow the urban-rural income gap, and has mediating effect in the process that the circulation industry agglomeration influences the urban-rural income gap.
2018 Vol. 35 (4): 94-100 [Abstract] ( 999 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 953KB] ( 791 )
101 Political Connection and Overcapacity of Private Enterprise: the MediatingEffect of Acquiring Credit Resources
LIU Jian-yong, WANG Jing-jing
Using as samples the data of A-share private listed enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges in China from 2008 to 2015, this paper calculates the capacity utilization of enterprises through DEA and measures the extent of overcapacity. The paper empirically examines whether political connection leads to overcapacity of private enterprise through the scale of credit resource. The results show that in enterprises that have strong political connection, more credit resources are obtained and the overcapacity is worse. The scale of credit resources plays a mediating role in the relationship between political connection and overcapacity. Meanwhile, the improvement of the institutional environment has weakened the financing function of political connection and the impact of the credit resources scale on overcapacity, which reduces the impact of political connection on overcapacity.
2018 Vol. 35 (4): 101-106 [Abstract] ( 1046 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 812KB] ( 733 )
107 Government Intervention and National Savings Rate
LI Ping, LIN Yang, JING Guang-zheng
Based on the panel data of 87 countries across the world in 1995-2014, this paper examines the impact of government intervention on savings rates. The empirical results show that government intervention significantly enhances a country’s savings rate, and there is a positive correlation between the two. When taken into account the interaction of government intervention on economic and financial development, the conclusion remains strong. Quantile regression results show that when the savings rate quantile increases, the impact of government intervention on it presents a “U” shape development that falls before it rises. Dynamic panel regression further reflects that there is still a significant positive correlation between government intervention and the savings rate in countries of different income levels, and the intensity of the impact of government intervention on the savings rate increases firstly and then decreases, showing an inverted U-shape feature.
2018 Vol. 35 (4): 107-114 [Abstract] ( 985 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1010KB] ( 738 )
115 Time Distance, Customization Mode and Personalized Product Satisfaction
WANG Yan-zhi, LU Hong-liang
The rapid development of information technology and the upgrade of consumption structure make personalized customization the choice of many people. How to improve the satisfaction of consumers for customized products has become a key concern of the merchants. From the perspective of consumers’ information representation, this paper tries to explore the impact of time distance and customization mode on the satisfaction of customized products. Using the inter-group experiment method, this research studies the customized notebook computers made by 236 undergraduates. The results show that when customized products are delivered in the near future, customization by alternative plans can bring higher satisfaction than that by attributes.In contrast, when the customized products are delivered in the far future, consumers are more satisfied with customization by attributes than that by alternative plans. The reason for such an effect is that the processing fluency plays a complete intermediary role in the relationship between time distance, customization mode and the satisfaction of individually customized products.
2018 Vol. 35 (4): 115-121 [Abstract] ( 940 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 924KB] ( 747 )
122 Entrepreneurial Learning and Novelty-Centered Business Model Design:   the Moderating Effects of Market Uncertainty
WANG Ling-ling, ZHAO Wen-hong, WEI Ze-long

Based on the questionnaire of 500 new enterprises, this study explores how entrepreneurial learning affect the novelty-centered business model design, and how to better promote this design by adopting different modes of entrepreneurial learning under different market uncertainty environments. The results show that experiential learning and acquisitive learning both have positive effects on novelty-centered business model design. Acquisitive learning has a more important effect on novelty-centered business model design than experiential learning under highly competitive environment. There is a complementary relationship between the two types of learning.

2018 Vol. 35 (4): 122-128 [Abstract] ( 894 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 886KB] ( 722 )
129 Does Large Shareholders’ Social Capital Have Positive Effect   on Corporate Governance?
LIU Ting-li, WANG Zhi-hua, YANG Song-ling
Based on the theory of social capital, this paper analyzes the relationship among the top ten shareholders of China’s A-share listed companies from 2011 to 2015 from the perspective of relations and measures the social capital of those shareholders. It then establishes the logistic regression model and the intermediary effect model to clarify the role as well as the economic effects that large shareholders’ social capital has on corporate governance. The study finds that the social capital of large shareholders has the positive effect of restraining the related party transactions, and the suppression of the related transactions by the large shareholders’ social capital will lead to the improvement of the earnings quality.
2018 Vol. 35 (4): 129-135 [Abstract] ( 1034 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 928KB] ( 804 )
136 An Empirical Study on Multi-Factor Pricing Model in Chinese Capital   Market Based on Value Investment
GAN Wei-ming, ZHANG Di-xin
Employing monthly data of return rates of listed companies in Chinese A-share market between January, 2007 and December, 2016, this paper studies the influence of value and growth on stock returns based on Fama-French Multi-factor Model. Results indicate that there is still speculation in China’s capital market, but value investments based on profitability and growth are still valid. Therefore, China’s capital market should guide high quality companies IPO and improve the quality of listed companies. This paper supplements China’s asset pricing theories and its empirical analysis and also provides reference to the further healthy development and value investment practice of China’s capital market.
2018 Vol. 35 (4): 136-140 [Abstract] ( 1392 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 592KB] ( 965 )
141 Local Government Competition, Capital Flow and Its Spatial Allocation Efficiency
ZHONG Jun-wei, WAN Dao-xia
Using spatial dynamic panel model and taking prefecture data in China from 2000 to 2013 as samples, this article analyzes the effect of local government tax competition and the fiscal expenditure competition on the capital mobility and the allocation efficiency. The results indicate that tax competition among local governments promotes the regional capital allocation efficiency, which is related to the local government fiscal expenditure structure and the spatial mismatch of public finance in China. Capital flow is conducive to the improvement of capital allocation efficiency, and shows synergistic effect on capital spatial allocation efficiency together with tax competition among local governments. China’s inter-regional capital allocation efficiency shows spatial convergence while capital flow shows characteristics of multi-center dynamic evolution.
2018 Vol. 35 (4): 141-149 [Abstract] ( 890 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1067KB] ( 757 )
150 Interest Rate Liberalization, Monetary Policy and Bank Risk-taking
LIU Sheng-fu, YANG Xing-zhe, HAN Yong
By constructing the weighted average index which reflects the liberalization of the interest rate in the money market, the bond market, the shadow banking market and the bank deposit and loan market, this paper combines the panel data of 115 commercial banks in China from 1996 to 2014 with the system GMM model to test the relationship between monetary policy and the bank risk-taking in the liberalization process of interest rate. The empirical results show that with the gradual rise of the level of interest rate liberalization, the loose (tight) monetary policy stimulates(constraints) the risk-taking behavior of commercial banks. But under the dual impact of “liquidity effect” and “price effect”, the impact of monetary policy on bank risk-taking behavior is gradually weakened. It is of great practical significance to improve the institutional mechanism of interest rate liberalization to improve the macro-prudential management framework of China’s financial market.
2018 Vol. 35 (4): 150-157 [Abstract] ( 1157 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1165KB] ( 870 )
158 Does the Annual Report Inquiry Letter Affect the Audit Fees?
   ——Empirical Evidence Based on Listed Companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges
   AND SHENZEN STOCK EXCHANGE
CHEN Shuo, ZHANG Ran, CHEN Si

This paper takes the annual report inquiry letters sent by Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges between the years of 2015 and 2016 as samples to study the impact of the annual report inquiry letters of stock exchange on the audit fees of listed companies. The results show that: after controlling other factors, the listed companies which receive the annual report letter pay higher audit fees than the listed companies which do not receive the annual report letter. Furthermore, the analysis of the characteristics of the inquiry letter shows that the more the number of questions covered in the annual report and the more the number of the times that inquiries are made, the higher the audit fees are. This study enriches the related literature of audit fees and external supervision. It not only reveals the auditor’s adjustment model of audit fees in face of the potential risks of customers, but also serves as an early warning to the external supervision of auditors.

2018 Vol. 35 (4): 158-164 [Abstract] ( 1094 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 811KB] ( 867 )
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