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Economic Survey

	2017 Vol.34 Issue.4 Published 2017-07-10

Orignal Article

	1	Analysis of China’s Economic Growth Sustainability Based on Regional Relay Growth Model
		QIN Cheng-lin, ZHANG Wei-li, JIA Shan-ming, XIONG Xue-ru
		This paper constructs a theoretical model of regional relay growth, which proves that an economy can adopt the regional relay growth mode to realize the sustained and rapid growth longer than the rapid growth stage of the single (or some) region. Empirical analysis shows that there has been a regional relay growth in the process of economic growth since the reform and opening up, which is an important reason for the sustained and rapid growth of China’s economy for more than 30 years. In terms of growth rate, regional relay growth occurred in 2002. At present, the eastern developed provinces and cities are in the period of slowdown and structural adjustment, while some central and western provinces and cities are entering a phase of rapid growth. Therefore, China should take these central and western provinces and cities as relay areas, and vigorously support its economy to maintain rapid growth trend, so as to achieve sustained and rapid growth of the national economy.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 1-7 [Abstract] ( 1808 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 974KB] ( 1259 )

	8	Did the Highway Development Promote the Regional Manufacturing Agglomeration?——An Empirical Study Based on China’s Highway Network and Micro-enterprise Data from Manufacturing Industry
		YE Wei,LIN Shan-lang
		There are different views about whether the construction of highway will “agglomerate” or “disperse” the local economic factors. Based on NEG framework, we collect city-level highway mileage data and micro-enterprise data from Chinese industrial enterprises dataset during 1998–2007, and then use DK error regression panel model to empirically study the relationship between the highway development and manufacturing agglomeration from city level and industrial level. The result shows that with the increase of highway mileage density, the overall industry will first “agglomerate” and then “disperse”, presenting the “inverted U-shaped” distribution, and the effect of the east, middle and west regions is different. In terms of industry, the development of highway has a significantly promoting effect on the agglomeration of mineral processing industry, heavy chemical industry and technology-intensive industries in the eastern region and labor-intensive and resource-intensive industries in the central and western regions.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 8-12 [Abstract] ( 1521 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 775KB] ( 1153 )

	13	How does Government Competition Affect Regional Economic Growth?
		ZHANG Liao
		This paper reconstructs the logical framework of the regional economic growth under the influence of government competition: the institutional arrangement of the local government competition is based on the supporting environment, the preferential policies and the system optimization, and then from the perspective of institutional changes the government competition is internalized into economic growth. The panel data of 30 provinces and regions in China during 1998—2012 are used to test the actual effect of government competition on regional economic growth. It is found that government competition has a certain effect on the regional economic growth, but there are significant differences in the forms of government competition. For example, there is no significant correlation between the improvement of the supporting environment and the economic growth in the same region under the national sample, but there is a significant positive correlation between competition under preferential policy and system optimization and economic growth. The influence coefficients are 0.178% and 0.244% respectively. In addition, the economic growth effect of the system optimization competition is very significant in the eastern region, and the role of supporting environmental competition is more prominent in the less-developed central and western provinces.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 13-18 [Abstract] ( 1525 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 853KB] ( 1307 )

	19	R&D Input Heterogeneity and Regional Technology Innovation Spillover Effects
		LV Xin-jun, DAI Chun-xia
		The R&D input space spillover effect in 30 provinces of China during 2002—2011 is evaluated from three aspects of government, enterprise and foreign capital, in terms of the geographical features and socio-economic characteristics. The results show that China’s technology innovation has an obvious spatial autocorrelation. Without considering the space spillover, the direct effect of R & D investment will be overestimated. The direct effect of government’s R&D input on innovation output is negative, while spatial spillover effect is positive, thus the overall effect is significantly positive. Direct effect and spatial spillover effect of enterprises’ R&D input are significantly positive. The direct effect of foreign R&D input is significantly positive and spatial spillover effect is greatly influenced by spatial weight matrix, and the overall effect is significantly positive.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 19-24 [Abstract] ( 1657 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 706KB] ( 1212 )

	25	The Influencing Factors and Spatial Spillover Effect of Urban Land Use Efficiency in China
		CHEN Zhen-ling, LI Jinkai, LI Jing
		This paper is to explore the influencing factors and the spatial spillover effects of the urban land use efficiency of 31 provinces in China during 2000—2012. Spatial autocorrelation test and spatial Dubin model are used to study the influence factors of urban land use efficiency,in which we explore the spatial and temporal characteristics and dynamic mechanism of urban land use efficiency. The results show that: First, Chinese provincial urban land use efficiency has significant spatial autocorrelation, and spatial agglomeration phenomena mainly concentrate in Middle and East regions. Second, per capita GDP, urban employment and industrial structure optimization are positively related to urban land use efficiency and have significant spatial spillover effects. Third, the expansion of urban investment has not improved the land use efficiency. Fourth, the proportion of state-owned economy does not significantly influence the urban land use efficiency. The conclusion is drawn that to improve urban land use efficiency, China must vigorously develop economy, optimize the industrial structure, improve element flowing mechanism and control the urban investment scale properly. At the same time, an effective communication and cooperation mechanism among regions should be established.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 25-30 [Abstract] ( 1748 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 972KB] ( 1102 )

	31	The Impact of Intellectual Property and Domestic Technology Transfer on Regional Innovation—— Based on the Perspective of Absorption of International Technology Transfer
		WEN Hao, CHEN Zhong-feng
		Based on the perspective of absorption of international technology transfer, this article empirically tests the impact of intellectual property protection and domestic technology transfer on regional technological progress by using the panel data of 29 provinces in China during 1997—2011. The results show that the level of actual intellectual property protection in each region is low, which fails to meet the minimum requirements of international technology licensing. Domestic technology transfer plays a fundamental role in the absorption of foreign technology transfer, and it contributes more than independent research and development. Import trade is an important channel to acquire international technology spillover, and FDI significantly promotes the technological progress in the central region.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 31-36 [Abstract] ( 1582 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 799KB] ( 981 )

	37	Study on Influence Mechanism of Organizational Management on Brand Equity of Geographical Indication Agricultural Products ——An Empirical Analysis Based on Consumer Perspective
		YANG Hui, LIU De-jun
		Taking six representative geographical indication agricultural product brands as study object, this paper analyzes influence mechanism of organizational management on brand equity of geographical indication agricultural products with the method of structural equation model, based on 689 valid questionnaires from consumers. The empirical results show that the management system has no significant effect on the brand awareness of geographical indication agricultural products, while it has significant positive effects on perceived quality, brand association and brand loyalty. The organizational coordination has a positive effect on brand equity, and the supervision and implement have a positive effect on the perceived quality, while they have no significant effects on the brand awareness, brand association and brand loyalty.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 37-42 [Abstract] ( 1567 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 885KB] ( 1072 )

	43	The Agricultural Production and Price Effects of the Rural Labor Force Transfer
		CAO Bing-xue, YANG Xiao-wei, HE Fang
		This paper analyzes the effect of rural labor transfer on the price of agricultural products in China. Based on Hu Jingbei’s (2008) model, by distinguishing “absolute” and “relative” surplus labor force, we construct a mathematical model of the relationship among urbanization, transfer of rural labor and prices of agricultural products. The model demonstrates that given agricultural technology and rigid demand of agricultural products, the transfer of “absolute surplus labor force” to cities doesn’t affect the agricultural production and prices while the continued transfer of “relative surplus labor force” leads to the decrease of agricultural supply and increase of agricultural prices. The tests made by overall agricultural production and labor-intensive agricultural products verify the above conclusion.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 43-48 [Abstract] ( 1734 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 856KB] ( 992 )

	49	Influencing Factors of Farmer Specialized Cooperative’s Social Responsibility
		ZHANG Ying, WANG Li-li
		This paper analyses the influencing factors of Cooperative’s social responsibility in the case of planting cooperatives in Shannxi, Henan and Shanxi province by structural equation model. The results show that characteristics of directors, organizational development ability and external support can significantly improve the overall performance of Cooperative’s social responsibility. The effect of external support is the biggest, followed by characteristics of directors and organizational developing ability. Thus enhancing the level of external support and supervision as well as training and stimulating the directors are effective ways to improve farmer specialized Cooperative’s social responsibility.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 49-54 [Abstract] ( 1624 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1558KB] ( 943 )

	55	An Analysis of the Interaction Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Monetary Policy Regulation —Based on the Perspective of RMB Internationalization
		SHEN Yue, WANG Fei, GUO Pei-li
		Recently with the speeding progress of RMB internationalization, the co-movement between exchange rate of RMB and monetary policy is becoming stronger and stronger. In this article, we test the mutual effect between monetary policy and exchange rate with FAVAR model. The results show that both interest rate and money supply have impact on exchange rate fluctuations, but interest rate is more effective. Besides, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on interest rate is greater than that of money supply, and the interaction between interest rate and exchange rate is becoming closer. In view of this, the authority should pay attention to the sensitivity analysis of exchange rate fluctuations, and constantly strengthen the coordination between exchange rate policy and interest rate policy; control means should be price-based tools instead of number-based tools.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 55-61 [Abstract] ( 1660 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1339KB] ( 1028 )

	62	Quality of Imported Intermediate Products and Enterprise Productivity—An Empirical Study Based on GPSM Method
		CHEN Mei, ZHOU Shen
		Productivity is of vital importance to the sustainable development of an enterprise. Based on Chinese firm-level production data and transaction-level data from 2000 to 2006, we use the international forefront ACF approach to calculate the enterprises productivity. Referring to Gervais (2013) and Shi Bingzhan (2015), we calculate total factor productivity, and employ GPSM method to study the impact of imported intermediate products on enterprises productivity. The results show that there is a “U-shaped” relationship between the quality of imported intermediate products and the productivity of enterprises. The “U-shaped” relationship was still established when the OP/LP method is used to test enterprise productivity.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 62-67 [Abstract] ( 1650 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 882KB] ( 1162 )

	68	The Intensive and Extensive Margin of Chinese Foreign Trade: Calculation Based on the Customs Data
		WU Xiao-kang, ZHENG Ying
		This paper decomposes Chinese total export and import into intensive and extensive margin using transaction-level customs trade data during 2000—2006. We find that the contribution of intensive margin to trade growth is larger in the short run, while extensive margin is more important in the long run. The difference between this study and others lies in the definition of trade margins. Our definition is at firm-product-country level, while the others are at firm level or product-country level. We also examine the importance of the trade margins at the cross-sectional level. It is found that the trade variations at product and country level are mainly explained by extensive margin, and the variations at firm level are mainly explained by intensive margin.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 68-73 [Abstract] ( 1674 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 742KB] ( 1020 )

	74	Research of the Role of RMB Exchange Rates in China’s OFDI to ASEAN Countries
		HE Rong, LIAN Zeng, LI Chao, LIU Yang
		ASEAN countries are the major destinations for China’s OFDI. In order to better understand how exchange rates affect China’s OFDI to ASEAN, a mathematical model was constructed and we discovered that the current exchange rate level, the expected exchange rate level and the fluctuation of exchange rate had different influences on China’s OFDI. By applying a fixed effects model and GMM regression model with related data from 2005 to 2014, we found out that exchange rate and the expected exchange rate had consistent results with theoretical model prediction and significant effects on China’s OFDI to ASEAN countries, while the fluctuation of exchange rate is consistent with model prediction but not significantly related.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 74-80 [Abstract] ( 1587 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 979KB] ( 952 )

	81	Economic Complexity of Silk Road Economic Belt and its Influencing Factors
		ZHANG Mei-yun
		The economic complexity measured by exports reflects the technical content of an economy’s exports, which can explain and predict economic growth. In the Silk Road Economic Belt, most countries’ economic complexity lies in the middle or lower position of the global production network division of labor. This paper uses the empirical methods like two-step system GMM to analyze the influential factors of the regional economic complexity. The result shows us that lagged economic complexity, innovation, infrastructure and human capital have significantly positive impact on economic complexity, and institution and the logarithm of average GDP have significantly negative impact, while physical capital and intensity of intra-product specialization don’t have significant impact. China holds significant advantage indexes in economic complexity, R&D investment and physical capital, and has certain advantages in institutions and infrastructure, but China’s relative weakness in human capital can not be ignored.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 81-85 [Abstract] ( 1561 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 808KB] ( 1024 )

	86	Origin, Brand and National-brand Consciousness: Effects of Original Country in Infant Formula Milk Powder
		XU Ying-jun, XU Zhen-dong, CHEN Yu-sheng, WANG Jian-hua
		To explore the consumer’ preferences when selecting different infant formula milk powder, the paper takes product producing countries and countries of brand as main properties, selects 349 consumers from Shandong province as samples to perform experiments and questionnaires, and makes use of random parameter Logit model. The results suggest that compared with Chinese brand infant formula milk powder, the consumers have the highest willingness to pay for European brand, followed by the brand from New Zealand, and the willingness to pay for Japanese brand is much lower; compared with production in China, the consumers have the highest willingness to pay for production in European Union, followed by production in New Zealand, and the willingness to pay for infant formula milk powder produced in Japan is much lower. With the development of consumers’ national-brand consciousness, the gap between the willingness to pay for the infant formula milk powder produced in China or with Chinese brand and overseas narrowed significantly. For domestic infant formula milk powder manufacturers, it is an effective way of restoring consumer confidence to establish the branches overseas or cooperate with international famous manufacturers in brand building. Among the marketing strategies, guide and publicity of national-brand awareness will help increase the consumer’s preference for dairy products made in China.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 86-91 [Abstract] ( 1533 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 914KB] ( 1009 )

	92	Credit, Industrial Structure Distortion and “Supply-side Reform”
		ZHANG Xue-wei, WANG Yi-shu
		Credit expansion is the main reason of the economic cycle. Under the background of “Off- Keynesianism”, the business cycle theory of the Austrian School of Economics provides theoretical support for the current Structural Reforms. The theoretical part points out that the high capital-intensive industries squeeze out investment in the low capital-intensive industries, leading to imbalanced industrial structure. The empirical study divides the industries into two categories of being high and low according to the capital intensive degree, applying PVAR model to test the influence of bank loan on the investment, debts, research and development expenditure, and profits of the two kinds of industries. The empirical analysis of this thesis provides a new empirical evidence for the application of business cycle theory in Chinese context.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 92-98 [Abstract] ( 1788 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1159KB] ( 1047 )

	99	Research on the Promoting Effect of Allocation Mode of Industrial Subsidies on the Total Factor Productivity of Enterprises——An Empirical Analysis Based on Listed Companies in Equipment Manufacturing Industry
		LI Chun-lin, XU Xue-lu, LIU Hang
		Government subsidy is one of the important means of the industrial policy, but the distortion effect on the allocation of resources is also growing. Compared with the selective subsidy, competitive subsidy has less negative effect on market order, and is more conducive to promoting enterprise innovation as well as improving the total factor productivity. This article uses the unbalanced panel data of 673 listed companies in equipment manufacturing industry and empirically tests the relationship between competitive subsidy and enterprises’ total factor productivity. The results show that the lower concentration degree of government subsidy in the industry, the more benefit to the raise of TFP, which means competitive subsidy can significantly promote the total factor productivity. In terms of the decomposed indexes of TFP, the technical change (TC) and the efficiency of scale change (SEC) are more likely to get positive contribution from competitive subsidies, while the efficiency of technical change (TEC) would get negative effect from them. In order to promote the reform of the supply side and industrial transformation and upgrading, China should further deepen the innovation of the industrial policy and take competitive and beneficial fiscal support to reduce the governmental excessive intervention on resource allocation mechanism.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 99-104 [Abstract] ( 1636 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 940KB] ( 994 )

	105	Study on the Influence of FDI Quality on Overcapacity
		MO Sha, ZHOU Ting
		Based on the panel data of China’s 33 industrial sectors during 2003—2014, this paper analyzes the overcapacity index of 33 industries in China, and then empirically analyzes the influence of FDI quality on overcapacity with the two-step Systematic GMM method. The result indicates that the fluctuation of China’s overcapacity index is cyclical, but each industry showed marked heterogeneity. Overcapacity problems are mainly found in the mining and heavy industry sectors. In addition, the improvement of the quality of FDI is conducive to alleviating industry overcapacity.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 105-110 [Abstract] ( 1498 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 983KB] ( 1086 )

	111	Are there any Differences in the Business Philosophy Perceived by Employees from Different Accounting Firms?——A Survey of Employees from Chinese Accounting Firms
		HUANG Lin-lin, QI Fei
		Based on the survey results of the employees of Chinese accounting firms with related qualification of securities and futures, the theoretical model of the value logic of the accounting firms in China is constructed. The study finds that in general there is a trade-off relationship between “professionalism” and “commercialism” in China’s accounting firms; employees could perceive the tension between these two types of value logic and this tension would further permeate into employee’s specific operational management perspectives including professional identity, organizational identity and insistence on independence. From the perspective of practice quality, the employees with higher quality of practice perceive the difference between “professionalism” and “commercialism” and could balance the relationship between quality and revenue; the employees with lower quality of practice face more acute tension and fail to coordinate the conflict between quality and revenue.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 111-117 [Abstract] ( 1537 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1080KB] ( 992 )

	118	Research on the Efficiency of Traditional and New Energy Listed Companies Based on Two System DEA
		BAI Xue-jie, ZENG Jin
		This paper uses output-oriented two system model to compare traditional energy and new energy listed companies’ production and operation efficiency as well as their efficiency improvement. The results show that the average efficiency of traditional energy industry is significantly higher than that of new energy industry. The ownership difference between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises does not result in obvious efficiency gap in the same energy sector, but in traditional and new energy sectors, ownership makes a great difference. Traditional energy and new energy industries are both facing huge pressure of cost control: in particular, in traditional energy companies, operating cost, total number of employees and the percentage of bachelor degree or above are redundant seriously, new energy enterprises undertake more pressure in aspects of fixed assets and R&D investment. At the same time, the shortage of operating income and net profit shows that the new energy enterprises face greater pressure in scale expansion and profit growth.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 118-123 [Abstract] ( 1597 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1022KB] ( 1065 )

	124	Service Quality, Social Equity and Government Satisfaction——Empirical Analysis from Golden Tax Project
		WANG Chang-lin
		Based on the business practices of Golden Tax Project (a typical e-government), a research model of e-government satisfaction formulation mechanism is constructed based on Social Exchange Theory. Data collected from a field survey of 408 e-government users are analyzed to test the proposed hypotheses by Smart-PLS. The results indicate that government satisfaction is strongly influenced by agent satisfaction and system satisfaction, which are, in turn, respectively affected by service quality and social equity. The research results provide guidance for governments to build and enhance government satisfaction in e-government.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 124-128 [Abstract] ( 1498 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 804KB] ( 1473 )

	129	Is It Substitution or Complementation Between Car Purchasing and Housing Consumption in China?——Based on Panel Variable Coefficient Model
		LIU Yao-bin, FU Yan-qin
		There is a consumption substitution between durable and nondurable goods, but whether the relationship among durable goods is substitution or complementation has not been finalized yet. The housing price and private car ownership statistics of China show that there is synchronization growth between them, with regional differences among provinces. Through the establishment of the mathematical model including car and housing consumption based on Utility Function, we made the empirical analysis of the connection between housing price and private cars ownership during 1997—2014 according to the panel variable coefficient model.The results indicate that: (1) Among durable goods there are substitution relationships under different conditions, which change with the substitution parameter ρ; (2) There exists substitution relation between automobile and housing consumption, and the main substitute objects concentrate on residential consumption; (3) There is a slight regional difference in the substitution of house consumption by car purchasing between different regions, but the regional differences in distribution characteristics are not regular; (4) The substitution intensity shows an upward trend with time, increasing year by year on the whole. Therefore, it is proposed that housing prices should be appropriately restrained in order to coordinate the housing and automobile market.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 129-134 [Abstract] ( 1905 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 899KB] ( 1117 )

	135	How Are Rates of Return to Education Distributed in China?—An Empirical Analysis Based on Quantile Regression Model
		LONG Cui-hong
		Based on CHNS 2011, the paper used quantile regression model to explore the distribution characteristics of rates of return to education in different quantiles of income distribution. The results show that the rates of return to education become lower as the quantiles of income distribution get higher. In low quantiles, the corresponding rates of return are higher, while in high quantiles, the rates of return are relatively low, which indicates that low income groups benefit more from education expansion to increase their income. In terms of education levels, junior and senior high school education has no obvious effects on improving the income of low income groups, while they can narrow the income gap by accepting vocational education, university education or above. In addition, the labor market characteristics and employment features have a significant effect on the rate of return to education in each quantile of income. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: education expansion policy itself does not lead to the income gap among residents, while the changing rates of return to different education levels due to labor market characteristics and employment features have greater impact on income distribution than the changed education level itself. In order to reflect the differences of productivity through the rates of return to education, it is needed to reduce the wage differences among different departments and correct the distortion of the labor market.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 135-140 [Abstract] ( 1792 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1984KB] ( 1090 )

	141	Health Human Capital, Medical and Health Fiscal Expenditure and Fiscal Policies——Empirical Research Based on the Change of Serious Diseases Spectrum in China
		HOU Shi-an, LIU Shuo-tao
		Based on the change of the spectrum of serious diseases in China, this paper constructs a function model about health, uses the time series data, and adopts the stepwise regression method to analyze the formation and accumulation of the health human capital in China under the influence of major diseases, medical and health fiscal expenditure and personal health expenditure. The study shows that the negative impact of the disease spectrum change on the formation and accumulation of health human capital and the supply of labor is becoming more and more prominent. As China’ economy steps into “new normal”, the degree of the aging continues to deepen and the level of urbanization continues to improve, it is very important to give fiscal policies its full play to promote the formation and accumulation of the health human capital in this period, because finance is the foundation and important pillar of our state governance.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 141-146 [Abstract] ( 1668 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 927KB] ( 993 )

	147	Land Finance, Financial Development and Total Factor Productivity
		LIANG Qiang
		Based on the provincial panel data from 2003 to 2014, using the dynamic spatial autoregressive model, this paper explores the mechanism of influence of land finance and financial development on total factor productivity from the perspectives of financial efficiency and financial scale. The results show that the modest increase in land supply is beneficial to enhance the total factor productivity in each region, but the land finance model is not sustainable. The high degree of land financial dependence in the western region significantly inhibits the increase of total factor productivity. The increase in financial efficiency is conducive to improving the total factor productivity, and the west regions have the highest degree of impact, followed by east and central areas. But the increase in financial scale has reduced the total factor productivity, and the west regions have the highest degree of impact, followed by the central and eastern areas. The subprime mortgage crisis exacerbate the dependence of regional land finance, financial scale and government finance on land transfer, which is not conducive to technological progress.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 147-152 [Abstract] ( 1678 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 994KB] ( 1099 )

	153	A Study on the Influence of Land Finance on the Wage Rise of China’s Urban Labor
		ZHAO Hai-yi
		Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2002 to 2012, and using the dynamic panel model and Diff-GMM method, this paper explores the influence of land finance of local governments on the wage level of China’s urban labor in recent years. The results show that the land finance has a significant boost to the rise of the wage level of urban labor in China, which even makes the wage rise faster than the increase of labor productivity and produces some negative effect on the steady growth of China’s economy. Although the land finance has great effect in increasing Chinese labors’ wage level, the most important thing which can decide the increase of Chinese labors’ wage level is the improvement of productivity.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 153-158 [Abstract] ( 1558 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1481KB] ( 1327 )

	159	The Study on Problems and Countermeasures of Disequilibrium of Pension under the Background of Aging Population with Lower Fertility——Illustrated by the Case of Liaoning Province
		ZHANG Rong
		Based on the current situation of fast aging population and high proportion of the elderly population which is ahead of economic development, this paper builds simplified pension equilibrium model and analyzes the pension equilibrium situation of Liaoning province on the basis of overlapping generations model, using the data of Liaoning province during 1985—2015. The results show that the aging population with lower fertility has had great impact on the current pension system, with the result that Liaoning province has had the pension deficit, and the gap between revenue and expenditure is extending year by year. Contribution rate, substitution rate, dependency ratio and retirement age are important factors affecting the balance of pension payments. Therefore, in order to deal with a possible national pension disequilibrium, the government should expand pension coverage, adjust the pension substitution rate, postpone the retirement age gradually and reform the pension system.
		2017 Vol. 34 (4): 159-164 [Abstract] ( 1559 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 874KB] ( 1401 )

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