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Economic Survey

	2014 Vol.31 Issue.6 Published 2014-11-13

Original articles

	1	A Research on Interregional Knowledge Spillovers——Based on Spatial Econometrics Model
		SHI Xiao-li
		Using data of 31 provinces and districts in China, this paper analyzes the spatial distribution differences and spatial correlation of knowledge production, and based on the reviewing of the measure methods of knowledge spillovers, develops Griliches-Jaffe knowledge production function by changing the traditional single-factor input to the two-factor inputs, and then builds the spatial econometric model taking economic distance matrix as spatial weight matrix, mean while the other influencing factors such as import, human capital, FDI are also included in the analysis. The results show that there is a positive knowledge spillover between regions with similar economic level.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 1-6 [Abstract] ( 2666 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 916KB] ( 2083 )

	7	An Empirical Study on the Impact of Financial Development on the Urbanization ——Take Henan Province as An Example
		CHEN Zhi-wei
		Based on the panel data from 17 cites in Henan Province during 2001-2012, using the GMM estimation, panel Granger causality test, impulse response analysis and panel variance decomposition based on PVAR, this article examines the impact of financial development on employment urbanization, lifestyle urbanization, construction urbanization and household population urbanization. The research shows that financial development has an important influence on the process of urbanization in Henan: financial development significantly inhibits employment urbanization, but promotes household population urbanization significantly in the short term, however, the financial support for lifestyle urbanization and construction urbanization is not obvious. The Granger causality test and variance decomposition analysis show that the effects of financial development on urbanization mainly focus on employment and household population urbanization. The conclusion of this article has an important implication for the financial support policy in Henan province, as well as the central and western regions.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 7-13 [Abstract] ( 3137 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 850KB] ( 2817 )

	14	An Empirical Study on the Wealth Effect of Residents’ Wealth——Based on the Difference among Eastern, Central and Western Regions
		ZHOU Chun-xi, MAO Chao-xuan, YANG Zhen
		Because the level of financial development differs among the eastern, the central and the western parts of our country, the wealth effects of property asset and stock asset may also exhibit considerable differences. Based on the data of 35 large and medium-sized cities during the period from 2000 to 2010, this paper investigates the wealth effects of property asset and stock asset in the eastern, the central and the western regions by the method of panel co-integration. The results show that housing asset and residents’ consumption are positively related in the three regions and the wealth effects of housing assets do not exhibit significant difference. However, the relationship between stock assets and residents’ consumption differs among the eastern, the central and the western regions. In the eastern part, stock asset and consumption are significantly related, but changes in stock price do not have much impact on consumption. While in the central and the western regions, the wealth effects of stock asset are not significant.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 14-18 [Abstract] ( 2854 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 626KB] ( 2181 )

	19	Economic Compensation Standard Measurement of Cultivated Land Protection——A Case in Henan Province
		WU Xiao-lei, WANG Ying-hong, CHEN Chang-you
		With the increase of the population and the continuous improvement of people’s living standard, cultivated land is decreasing. It is very important to ensure a certain quantity and quality of cultivated land to maintain the sustainable development of agriculture. Therefore, the subjects of the cultivated land protection must be given a reasonable compensation to stimulate their protection behavior. To determine the economic compensation standard of cultivated land protection is an important part of cultivated land protection. This article puts forward the economic compensation of cultivated land protection surplus/deficit area, the conversion coefficient calculation method, and economic standard measurement. The results show that: (1) In theory, the externality is the important cause leading to the cultivated land protection compensation. Cultivated land resource value accounting should be strengthened and cultivated land ecological environment value and social value must be put in the public domain to manifest. (2) Cultivated area deficit/surplus is measured according to the quality grades. Due to the different parts of the natural environment, the cultivated land quality, multiple crop index differences and regional unit of cultivated land output are also different; the regional cultivated land protection area should be measured according to the quality grades of cultivated land conversion. (3)Compensation standards need to be mortified according to the actual. According to people’s willingness and ability to pay for ecological and social benefits of the cultivated land, compensation standard of cultivated land protection should be ensured in order to mortify distorted values.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 19-23 [Abstract] ( 3226 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 661KB] ( 1839 )

	24	Extent of Rural Credit Rationingunder Agricultural Cooperative Economic Organizations——A Positive Research on the Household Surveyof the Western Rural Areas in Shaanxi
		WANG Jing, WANG Zhi-heng
		The paper conducts a comprehensive research based on the date of 300 questionnaires survey from Shaanxi Province. The study indicates:1.Different from traditional and intuitive understanding, when compared with with the non-participation in agricultural cooperative economic organizations of the farmers, the financing level of the farmers’ participation is inhibited, and is subjected to a higher degree of credit rationing;2.There is no significant difference between “enterprises+peasant household” and other type of the rural cooperative economic organizations;3.Borrowing requirements are uncertain, as the participants and the farmers in different groups are affected differently.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 24-28 [Abstract] ( 2421 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 627KB] ( 1640 )

	29	A Path Analysis of Factors Influencing Price Volatility of Agricultural Products——Based on the Monthly Data from 2000 to 2013
		FU Lian-lian, DENG Qun-zhao
		To study the significant factors for price volatility of agricultural products and their direct impact and indirect impact, the paper identifies significant factors influencing price volatility of agricultural products by multivariate stepwise regression method based on the data from January 2000 to June 2013. Then the path analysis method is used to study direct and indirect effect of international commodity prices, inflation and other factors on agricultural prices. The results show that the money and inflation are the dominant factors with the biggest direct effect. Other factors affect the price mainly through these two factors. The influence of international commodity prices and the cost of agricultural production ranks the second. Direct effect of international oil price is small while its indirect impact is very big through inflation and the cost of agricultural production. The influence of urban residents’ income is not obvious.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 29-34 [Abstract] ( 2680 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 804KB] ( 2512 )

	35	Demonstrated Analysis on the Characteristic of Rural Household Consumption in Henan Province——Based on the Comparison of Different Income Levels
		WANG Cheng-zong
		Increasing the ability of household consumption is a realistic choice for keeping of the sustained development of China’s economy. Based on the analysis of rural households income and consumption characteristics in Henan Province, the article uses the panel data to analyze the impact of different income levels on rural residents’ consumption, with the theory of the Keynes’s absolute income hypothesis of consumption. The results show that the total consumption expenditure of rural residents is significantly different in different income levels, and the models of different consumption are also different. Some significant proposals, such as improving the level of income of the farmers, establishment and consummation of countryside social security systems, and optimization consumption environment are put forward for stimulating the consumption demands and optimizing the consumption structure of rural households in Henan Province.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 35-40 [Abstract] ( 2531 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 940KB] ( 1975 )

	46	Impact of Trade Facilitation and FDI on the Three Margins of China’s Export Growth
		GAO Yue, REN Yong-lei, FENG Zhi-yan
		This paper decomposes the growth of China’s export into three parts: the extensive margin, quantity margin and price margin. Using China’s export data at HS-6 digit level, we perform an empirical analysis to study the impact of trade facilitation and FDI on the three margins. Bilateral trade facilitation has a significant effect on the extensive margin and quantity margin, with China playing a more important role. But the trade facilitation of the importing country has no significant effect on the price margin. FDI has significant effect on all the three margins, with the most effect on the quantity margin. This paper provides an empirical support for the transformation of China’s export into diversity and quality upgrading.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 46-51 [Abstract] ( 2937 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 650KB] ( 2065 )

	52	An Analysis on Institutional Quality of China’s Trade Policy ——Based on the Perspective of Institutional Effectiveness and Stability
		GUO Su-wen, HUANG Han-min
		Starting from two institutional dimensional property-institutional effectiveness and stability, institutional quality of China’s trade policy is evaluated in this paper firstly. Then, with extended gravity model, using panel data covering 1997-2011 of 97 representative nations whose imports account for 90% of China’s total export, we probe into the effects on institutional quality of China’s trade policy empirically. Finally, we put forward some corresponding recommendations on how to improve institutional quality of China’s trade policy based on what we have studied above. The results show that: China’s current trade policy in general is effective and keeps relative stability except two periods of 1995-1997 and 2004-2006. Institutional effectiveness and stability of China’s trade policy play a significant role in improving the development of trade. The effect manifests itself through two channels: providing favorable and stable policy expectation for traders and promoting economic growth.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 52-57 [Abstract] ( 2393 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 714KB] ( 1931 )

	58	An Analysis of BRICS Countries’ Economic Cycle Co-movement from the Perspective of Regime Dependence——An Empirical Study Based on Markov Regime-switching Model
		XIONG Hao
		With the seasonal GDP data from 1997 to 2012, the paper studies the co-movement of economic cycle in BRICS countries by Markov regime-switching model. It finds that there is an increase in the co-movement in BRICS countries from regime 1 to regime 3.The results show that China’s economy has an obvious positive impact in the common low-speed growth regime and common high-speed growth regime.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 58-63 [Abstract] ( 2323 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 827KB] ( 1628 )

	64	Vertical Trade,Fiscal Policy and the Optimal Currency Basket Weights
		SUN He-feng
		This paper constructs a general equilibrium model with imported intermediate goods and fiscal policy. The optimal weights are derived,aiming at stabilizing trade balance of an economy.We find that the home country’s exchange rate against the numeraire should respond to the changes in the price of intermediate goods and government purchase expenditure,even though real exchange rate of the third country is kept unchanged. The optimal weight is affected by the output elasticity of imported intermediate goods. Base on China’s experience,the empirical analysis result has confirmed the theoretical model conculsion.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 64-70 [Abstract] ( 2641 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 709KB] ( 1521 )

	71	Does Manufacturing Transfer Inhibit the Development of Local Producer Services？ ——Taking Shanghai as An Example
		YU Cheng, CAO Dong-po, LIN Si-yu
		Generally speaking, the development of producer services and manufacturing is interactive. But when specific to a particular stage of development and regional, producer services are not necessarily dependent on the manufacturing industry. Based on the input-output analysis and panel data econometric model, this paper empirically studies the relationship between the manufacturing transfer in Shanghai and the development of producer services. The results show that the manufacturing transfer is necessary and what is happening in fact. Producer services are self-sustaining in some extent. The development of producer services in Shanghai gets more demand from the local service industries, and the manufacturing transfer doesn’t play a significant inhibition on the development of local producer services.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 71-76 [Abstract] ( 2873 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 814KB] ( 1643 )

	77	The Evolution of China’s Industrial Water Using Abatement Cost and Evaluation of Influencing Factor——An Nonparametric Estimation Based on Provincial Panel Model
		XU Zhi-wei, WEN Xiao-qing
		In the overall control and quotas administered condition, making a scientific and objective estimation to the economic impact of water using index abatement is an important prerequisite for water resources management. Based on the 30 provinces data from 2000 to 2010, the article analyzes the provincial difference of industrial water using abatement relative costs and absolute costs by the directional distance function. Meanwhile, the article also analyzes the influencing factors causing difference by a panel regression model. The article finds that the relative costs of most provincial decreased in various degree, however, the absolute costs demonstrate a growing trend under the action of industrial output. In addition, both relative costs and absolute costs have a distinguishing regional distribution characteristic and present an inverse relationship with the degree of water resources abundance. Finally, the regression result shows that the three main facts acting on relative costs are export-oriented degree, water using structure and water conservation investment dynamics. In addition, water endowment, heavy industry output, industrial technology and water conservation investment dynamics have a significant influence on absolute costs.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 77-83 [Abstract] ( 2551 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 906KB] ( 1599 )

	84	A Study of Incentives Coordination and Efficiency in Supply Chain Based on Virtual-third Party
		HUANG Mei-ping, WANG Xian-yu
		To solve the problem of no coordination body and inefficiency caused by bilateral asymmetric information in supply chain, the virtual-third party is introduced to be the principal without its own profit based on the principal-agent theory. And then the incentives coordination model is established to analyze the efficiency of the supply chain. The results show that, although there is the pre-decision risk, both of the supplier and retailer would like to seek the best combination of revenue sharing ratio and cost sharing proportion, to maximize their own interests and then realize the supply chain coordination. Even if sometimes it is unable to reach coordination, not only the supplier is motivated to reduce production costs, but also the seller is willing to cooperate with the supplier with low production costs ,to get more ex post benefits.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 84-89 [Abstract] ( 2476 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 660KB] ( 1982 )

	90	The Impact of Marketing Strategy on Brand Loyalty: The Mediating Role of Customer Perceived Value
		ZHENG Wen-qing, HU Guo-zhu, FENG Yu-qin
		Brand loyalty is closely related to marketing strategy and customer perceived value. Current researches only focus on marketing strategy or customer perceived value. However, they do not pay much attention to the effects of marketing strategy and customer perceived value on brand loyalty together. Based on the conceptual model of marketing strategy, customer perceived value and brand loyalty, this paper applies literature research, questionnaire survey and focus group interviews to empirically test the effects of marketing strategy and customer perceived value on brand loyalty on the analysis of structural equation model, taking “NIKE” for example. The result shows that marketing strategy has a significant effect on customer perceived value, and both marketing strategy and customer perceived value have a significant effect on brand loyalty. Furthermore, we find that customer perceived value is the mediator between marketing strategy and brand loyalty, and marketing strategy affects brand loyalty more through customer perceived value. These results provide a theoretical basis for further research of influencing factors of brand loyalty and have practical and academic implications to innovate cultivating mode and strategy of brand loyalty in marketing.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 90-95 [Abstract] ( 4001 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 887KB] ( 1796 )

	96	The Impacts of Abusive Supervisionon Organizational Citizenship Behavior and Workplace Deviant Behavior ——Interpersonal Conflict as Mediator and General self-efficacy as Moderator
		HUANG Li, CHEN Wei-zheng
		The study analyzes the effect of abusive supervision on workplace deviant behavior and organizational citizenship behavior, and explores the effect of interpersonal conflict and self efficacy in this process. A sample of 345 supervisor-subordinate dyads collected is used for structural equation and regression analysis. The results indicate that: (1) Abusive supervision has a significantly positive impact on workplace deviant behavior, and a negative impact on organizational citizenship behavior; (2) Abusive supervision has significant impacts on workplace deviant behavior and organizational citizenship behavior by the partly mediating effect of interpersonal conflict; (3)Self efficacy moderates the relationship between abusive supervision and interpersonal conflict. The findings of this study can contribute to opening “black box” between abusive supervision and work behaviors, and also have important enlightenment to the practice of management.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 96-100 [Abstract] ( 2368 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 734KB] ( 1799 )

	101	A Study on the Relationship between the Profitability of Top Manager Selling and Corporate Governance Environment —— An Empirical Research based on China’s GEM
		WANG Lei, GU Xiao-min, GAO Pan
		Based on the related theories of Insider trading and the samples of top manager selling on GEM from 2010 to 2012, the relationship between abnormal returns gained by top manager selling and corporate governance environment is examined. The empirical results indicate that top managers could gain significant abnormal return from their selling, and the profitability is negatively correlated with the quality of the information disclosure, while the relationship with regional law environment, government intervention and market process is insignificant. The result shows that good internal corporate governance could curb the self-interested behavior of top managers when they are trading, in comparison, external corporate governance environment could not deter top managers getting abnormal return.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 101-107 [Abstract] ( 2411 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 856KB] ( 1927 )

	108	Information Asymmetry, Accounting Conservatism and IPO Under-pricing
		CHEN Liang
		In this paper, based on asymmetric information theory, accounting conservatism measurement model, IPO under-pricing measurement model and 2005-2011 Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange initial public offering of A shares of 539 listed companies data, the author studies the relationship between accounting conservatism and the initial public offering (IPO) under-pricing, and further explores the impact of information asymmetry on their relationship. The empirical results show that accounting conservatism and IPO under-pricing is negatively correlated; when the degree of information asymmetry is high, the negative correlation between accounting conservatism and IPO under-pricing is more obvious.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 108-113 [Abstract] ( 2777 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 776KB] ( 1963 )

	114	State Property, Accounting Information, and Long-term Loan Contract — An Empirical Study Based on Ratio of State-owned Shares of Private Enterprise
		PAN Ke-qin
		Adopting the listed private enterprises during 1998 to 2011 as samples, this paper empirically studies the relationship among the long-term loan contract and the ratio of state-owned shares when IPO and its subsequent changes in next year, and the accounting information. It finds that: (1) the higher the proportion of state-owned shares in the IPO year, the lower requirement for enterprise assets guarantee ability and accounting surplus robustness when private enterprises achieve long-term loan contracts; (2) in the next year after IPO, the more state-owned shares increase, the lower requirement for enterprise assets guarantee ability and accounting surplus robustness when private enterprises achieve incremental long-term loan contracts.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 114-119 [Abstract] ( 2669 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 762KB] ( 1793 )

	120	Institutional Quality, Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth
		DA Feng-yuan, ZHENG Chang-de, TU Yu-chun
		This paper is an extension of multi-sectors endogenous growth model including capital based on the model of Aghion and Howitt (1999). It sets institution, endogenous human capital and technological innovation into a unified analysis framework for the first time, and tests the effects of institution, capital accumulation and technological innovation on the long-term economic growth. The results show that long-term economic growth not only depends on the institutional quality and technical innovation, but also depends on capital accumulation and family preferences. The long-term stable equilibrium of positive growth rate only occur when the institutional quality reaches a certain level, and the improvement of the institutional quality will improve long-term economic growth rate when the equilibrium existing. In addition, government tax and subsidy policy can also affect the long-term economic growth. This paper aims to provide theoretical support and policy suggestions for the revival of China’s reform.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 120-125 [Abstract] ( 3088 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 768KB] ( 1613 )

	126	Income Taxation and Leisure Time’s Impact on China’s Economy Growth
		GE Xiang-yu, YE Ti-fang, HU Chao-bin
		This paper first develops an endogenous economic growth model which involves three types of consumption utility function, such as individual consumption, public goods consumption, leisure time consumption. In such a framework, we discuss the effects of both taxation and leisure time on economic growth. Theoretical derivation indicates that there is a different optimal smooth tax rate from that in which leisure time is not considered in utility function. Economic growth can reach the maximum level when the optimal smooth tax rate is set this value. Then, it uses Chinese and Danish’s economics data of 1994 to 2011 to show the result as follows: there is a link between the impacts of taxation and leisure time on economic growth and economic development level. The taxation and leisure time plays a negative role in economic growth in China, while it plays a positive role in Danish. China is on the intermediate stage of industrialization while Danish is in a post industrial society.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 126-131 [Abstract] ( 2804 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 632KB] ( 3089 )

	132	An Empirical Study on Decoupling Relation Between Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth——A Case Study of Henan Province
		LIU Qi-tao
		Using elastic decoupling method, the paper analyzes the decoupling relations between carbon emissions and economic growth in Henan Province from 2000 to 2010. Based on causal chain decomposition of thought, the paper pulls the elastic breaks decoupling emissions from economic growth, and researches the influence of decoupling factors quantitatively based on the logarithmic method. The results show that the relations between carbon emissions and economic growth in Henan Province are a weak decoupling in the most years; the energy consumption decoupling factor is positive influence on the decoupling between carbon emissions and economic growth, and it also plays a leading role in the process while the influence emissions decoupling factor is weak.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 132-136 [Abstract] ( 3013 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 675KB] ( 2514 )

	137	An Empirical Analysis on the Change of Chinese Household Investment Preferences ——Based on Expected Utility and the Second Stochastic Dominance Theory
		LI Xin-guang, HU Ri-dong, CHEN Jia-gan
		With the growth of Chinese residents wealth, the ability against the risk of Chinese residents is also increasing. Does the Chinese residents’ investment psychology also follow this rule? Based on this point, this paper applies the expected utility theory and second stochastic dominance theory, by using the sample of lottery, deposit and stock datum between 1994-2011, to analyze the changes of Chinese residents’ investment preference .At last ,we draw a conclusion that the current Chinese household investment is more rational. Then we summarize a phenomenon of risk preference that is “risk neutral is dominant; risk preference is central; risk avoidance is weakened”. At last we point out the importance of improving and standardizing the capital market.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 137-142 [Abstract] ( 2734 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1011KB] ( 1740 )

	143	An Effect of Institutional Investors on Stock Liquidity
		HU Shu-juan, HUANG Xiao-ying
		This research is based on 1119 samples listed in Shenzhen exchange stock market from 2006 to 2008. The results show that the institutional investors keep more attention on company, the stock turnover rate is higher, and the shares volume traded is bigger. Furthermore, the research finds the effect of institutional investors attention on stock liquidity become weaker in the companies which have the lower institutional investor ownership and the lower trade shares’ market value.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 143-148 [Abstract] ( 2504 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 509KB] ( 1765 )

	149	Is There Trade Credit Channel for Monetary Policy in China? —— Empirical Evidence from the A-share Manufacturing Listed Companies
		DU Jian-hua
		When companies substitute trade credit for bank credit during periods of tight monetary policy, trade credit channel of monetary policy transmission operates. Using the panel data of A-share manufacturing listed companies covering period from 2004 to 2010,this paper tests and verifies the existence of trade credit channel, and finds that it is diverted to trade credit to support inventory investment growth during periods of tight monetary policy which plays an offsetting effect on contractionary monetary policy. Further research discusses the heterogeneity of trade credit channel, and finds that this channel exists only in state-owned listed companies and weaker bank-dependence companies. This paper stresses the important role of informal finance which is represented by trade credit.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 149-153 [Abstract] ( 2566 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 683KB] ( 2007 )

	154	A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of the RMB Exchange Rate Paradox under the Exchange Rate Price Transmission Mechanism
		TAO Shi-gui, SUN Yu
		Based on the traditional exchange rate price transmission theory and the facts in China, this article tries to explore the conduction mechanism of RMB’s domestic appreciation and international depreciation, and analyze the conduction path of RMB exchange rate paradox by the VAR model as well. According to the model, the conduction path exists: exchange rate appreciation increases the amount of foreign exchange reserves, which further results in a higher money supply, and the enhanced money supply finally booms the price level. In the end, this article provides some policy suggestions regarding the paradox.
		2014 Vol. 31 (6): 154-160 [Abstract] ( 2702 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 985KB] ( 1544 )

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