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Economic Survey
 
2014 Vol.31 Issue.1
Published 2013-12-20
Original articles
1 Spatial Distribution Pattern of China’s County Economy and    Its Evolution: from 1990 to 2010
LUO Qing, LI Xiao-jian, YANG Hui-min
County is the basic unit of economic development measurement, and the implementation effect of regional development policy is especially shown on the county level. Using the ESDA,this paper demonstrates the spatial evolution of economic pattern of China’s county during 1990-2010. The study finds that in the general economic pattern, the development of China’s county economy has a relatively strong spatial autocorrelation with similar regions clustering in space, hot spots centering in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and regions round the Bohai Sea, cold spots assembling in northwest and southwest China. From the space-time transition of the hot spots and cold spots, self-organizing ability of the county economy is growing stronger. The random components in space differentiation pattern are becoming less. Hot spots continue to expend, moving from the north to the west, while the range of the cold spots tends to shrink. During 1990-2010, the spatial pattern of China’s county economy growth has notable changes. While the hot spots keep migrating to the north and west areas, the cold spots began to transfer to the coastal regions. Finally, the driving force of evolution of China’s county economic pattern can be summed up in three aspects: geographical location, resource endowment and regional economic development policy.
2014 Vol. 31 (1): 1-7 [Abstract] ( 3278 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1454KB] ( 2019 )
8 Research into Classification of China’s Regional Innovation Capability    Based on Classification of Extended Clustering Model
WANG De-qing,ZHU Jian-ping
In order to classify China’s innovation capability and mine the deep organic connection among regions’ innovation capability, the authors extend models based on the advantages and defects of the summation of existed classification methods, and apply improved clustering models to classify China’s regional innovation capability both dynamically and statically. Making significance tests and comparing innovation development mode of different regions, the authors find that there still exists the innovation step distribution advanced in the east and weak in the west. Accordingly, innovation policy should be made and implemented separately rather than uniformly.
2014 Vol. 31 (1): 8-13 [Abstract] ( 3201 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 874KB] ( 1895 )
32 Governing Rural Hollowing of China after Lewis Turning Point
LIU Yuan-feng
China modern sector salary decision has got rid of the reservation wage restraint of traditional sector. Therefore, according to Lewis’ dual economy model, the Lewis turning point has come to China. The dual economy, however, still continue, with traditional sector and modern sector coexisting. After the Lewis turning point, the rural hollowing is its characterization, which is caused by the city’s excessive absorbing of the rural labors. To manage the rural hollowing, we should gradually eliminate the economic duality, strip the social function of farmland, turn agriculture into profit-oriented industry, create enough economic opportunity for the reproduction capital, transform traditional agriculture, introduce new agriculture technology and the new factor of production, breed rural economic organization, enrich both agricultural and rural economy, make agricultural labor force allocation detach the farming experience hard constraints, and finally break the unidirectional flow pattern of the labors from the countryside to the city.
2014 Vol. 31 (1): 32-37 [Abstract] ( 3372 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1041KB] ( 1970 )
38 Impacts of Farmer Differentiation on the Willingness of    Homestead Transfer of the Households   ——Based on Structural Equation Model
YANG Ying-jie
Based on the investigation in four pilot counties(Puyang, Qixian, Gushi, Ruyang)in Henan Province, the author makes an statistical analysis of the potential willingness of homestead transfer of the households by using the structural equation model. The results show that the marginal effect of professional and economic differentiation is significant on the potential willingness of homestead transfer of the households. Among other observable variables, age, education, numbers of agricultural labor, recognition for stability of farmland property rights, the role of farmland in providing social security are all significantly positive. Finally, the author puts forward such proposals as promoting the rationalization of farmers' professional structure and advancing the construction of rural social security system etc. Meanwhile, we should actively promote the rationalization of farmers’ professional structure.
2014 Vol. 31 (1): 38-43 [Abstract] ( 2675 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1061KB] ( 2390 )
44 Impacts of Formal Credit and Informal Credit on the Farmers’    Production and Consumption   ——Based on the Micro Panel Data of 2006-2010 Rural Fixed Observation Point
QU Xiao-gang, CHI Jian-yu, LUO Jian-chao
By using the farmers’ micro panel data of 2006-2010 rural fixed observation point, the paper analyzes the impacts of formal credit and informal credit on the farmers’ production and consumption with the following conclusion: either the formal credit or informal credit has significant impacts on farmers’ production and consumption. The impacts of informal credit on the farmer’s production and consumption are far greater than that of formal credit. However, the formal credit has negative effect on the farmers’ consumption. The impacts of formal credit on the farmers’ production have regional differences. The impacts of informal credit on the farmers’ production do not have regional differences. The impacts of informal credit on the farmers’ consumption have regional differences. The impacts of formal credit on the farmers’ consumption do not have regional differences.
2014 Vol. 31 (1): 44-49 [Abstract] ( 3179 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 779KB] ( 1837 )
50 An Evaluation and Comparison of Quality of Utilizing FDI in Different Manufacturing Industries
FU Yuan-hai , SHI Yan-xin
By factor analysis method, the paper evaluates and compares quality of utilizing FDI with 12 indexes in 29 manufacturing industries and finds that quality of utilizing FDI is higher in technology-intensive industries and lower in resources-intensive industries; characteristics of quality of utilizing FDI are not obvious in labor- intensive industries. Analyzing the factor loading and the structure of quality of utilizing FDI, it shows that quantitative contribution of FDI to industrial development is mainly the determinants of quality of utilizing FDI, contribution of FDI to institution and technology and management play an important role in quality of utilizing FDI ,but the effect of FDI on economic quality is not clear. Therefore we think that modes of using FDI are quantity-type rather than quality-type, namely, the overall quality of using FDI is low. Level of using FDI is a critical factor for the quality of utilizing FDI in industries. Foreign-funded enterprises control the technology and has reduced the localization extent of the output, which is the decisive causes for the quality of utilizing FDI to be low.
2014 Vol. 31 (1): 50-56 [Abstract] ( 2698 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1023KB] ( 1674 )
57 Impacts of Creation of FTA on Welfare for Different Types of Countries
XIAO De, YANG Hong, TANG Wei
Based on the theory of quality ladder, we suppose that northern countries devote resources to innovative R&D activities to discover higher quality products while southern countries devote resources to imitative R&D activities to copy state-of-art quality northern products. The creation of FTA(Free Trade Area) among different countries will make the production transfer globally, resulting to regional income inequality. This paper introduces high-skilled labor and low-skilled labor in the north-south model of Dinopoulos and Segerstrom, making a general analysis of the impact of decreasing trade cost on welfares for workers in different countries in north-north trade, north-south trade and south-south trade, offering theoretical guidance of narrowing regional income inequality by establishing FTA with which types of countries for China.
2014 Vol. 31 (1): 57-61 [Abstract] ( 3011 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 579KB] ( 1646 )
62 Dynamic Effect and Regional Difference of Foreign Direct Investment on the Employment in China   ——GMM Estimation Based on Dynamic Panel Data Model
DING Cui-cui, GUO Qing-ran
Based on the inter-provincial panel data between 1996 and 2011 and by using the Generalized Method of Moment(GMM)of Dynamic Panel Data Model , this paper makes a study of the dynamic effect and regional difference of foreign direct investment(FDI)on the employment in China. The results show that the regional difference about the effect of FDI on the employment is significant in China and FDI has a significant crowding-out effect on China’s regional employment. Only FDI last year has a significant creation effect on employment of the Central China while FDI in other periods and regions has a negative effect on the employment this year. Therefore, the introduction of FDI in China cannot absorb more workforces, and it is very difficult to rely on FDI to alleviate domestic employment pressure.
2014 Vol. 31 (1): 62-67 [Abstract] ( 3363 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 752KB] ( 1644 )
68 Influences of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate Changes on China’s Agricultural Exports Provincial Regional Structure
JIANG Zhi-qiang, LIU Zhong-qin
Based on the calculation of in RMB real effective exchange rate the agricultural product export of our country, this paper uses data of the third quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2011 as a research sample and establishes a model to analyze the influence of RMB real effective exchange rate on China’s exports of agricultural products regional structure. The empirical results show that RMB real effective exchange rate has different effects on China’s main agricultural product export provinces. If there is 1% appreciation of RMB, the agriculture product export of Shandong, Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang and Jiangsu will then respectively decrease 1.37%, 2.26%, 3.07%, 0.68% and 1.64%. At the same time, the agriculture products export of Liaoning province and Beijing will increase respectively 0.2% and 2.35%. However, RMB real effective exchange rate has no significant effect on the agricultural exports of Shanghai.
2014 Vol. 31 (1): 68-72 [Abstract] ( 3094 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 633KB] ( 1716 )
73 The Effects of Trade Liberalization in Environmental Goods in Importing Countries
Gong Qing-hua,Zhang Jian-min
The implementation of the trade liberalization in environmental goods will be win-win to trade and environment. But some countries are worried, which makes it slow in progress. Therefore it is necessary to take a deep study of its effects. This paper analyzes the effects of trade liberalization in environmental goods in importing countries by establishing a model. The results show that when tariffs on environmental goods are reduced, environmental policy becomes loose; the imports increase in quantity; but the impact on environmental quality is uncertain. China should carefully promote trade liberalization in environmental goods.
2014 Vol. 31 (1): 73-78 [Abstract] ( 2499 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 807KB] ( 1809 )
79 FDI Stock, R&D Stock and Self-dependent Innovation   ——A Dynamic Panel GMM Analysis of Provincial Data
PENG Jian-ping, LI Yong-cang
Self-dependent innovation ability is the result of combined action between internal cause and the external cause. By utilizing the number of inventions patents application accepted as the index of self-dependent innovation, and estimating FDI stock and R&D stock according to the perpetual inventory method, the paper conducts a dynamic panel analysis of the impacts of the FDI stock and R&D stock to self-dependent innovation using panel data from provinces during the period 1997-2007. The findings are as follows: the R&D investment, FDI, the numbers of technological activity personnel, economic growth, import and the self-dependent innovation level of the past existence are the remarkable factors. Lastly, we put forward some countermeasures.
2014 Vol. 31 (1): 79-83 [Abstract] ( 3022 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 706KB] ( 1635 )
84 Impacts of Changes in Industrial Structure on the Imbalance of Payment   ——Based on the Analysis of State Space Model
XU Zhong-kun
By using the state space model, this paper conducts an empirical analysis and finds that China’s industry structure is irrational as a whole. The irrational structure of industry has played a very important role in promoting the imbalance of payment. Compared to the non-structural changes in industry, the structural changes in industry has influenced the imbalance of payment more greatly. At this stage, China should make necessary adjustments on foreign exchange policy and capital control policy to liberate the effect of the structural changes in industry on the imbalance of payment.
2014 Vol. 31 (1): 84-89 [Abstract] ( 3236 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 771KB] ( 1891 )
96 Studies on the Total Factor Productivity of China’s Information Resources Industry and Its Sub-industry
XIE Xiao-ke, TANG Shou-lian
Information resources industry (IRI) has great significance in the transformation of China’s economic development mode, the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries and expanding employment. Based on Solow Residual method, this paper measures the total factor productivity (TFP) of China’s IRI and its sub-industry during 1990-2010. The results indicate that the contribution rate of TFP on IRI and its sub-industry are large, and TFP growth rate shows a rapid growth trend before 2002 and a gradual decline trend after 2002. The main reason is that the rapid growth of capital and labor investment has failed to drive the synchronous growth of output.
2014 Vol. 31 (1): 96-100 [Abstract] ( 2993 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 750KB] ( 1851 )
101 Research on the Evaluation of Coupling between Technological Innovation Capabilities and Knowledge Management Capabilities
CHEN Heng, XU Rui-shu, FU Zhen-tong
By analyzing the coupling relationship between technological innovation capabilities and knowledge management capabilities, an evaluation model of coupling between the technological innovation capabilities and knowledge management capabilities is built. Then, the model is used to evaluate the coupling degree of technological innovation capabilities and knowledge management capabilities of HAIG corporation, and the results show that the technological innovation capabilities and knowledge management capabilities of HAIG corporation are of middle coupling degree and coordination degree. It provides the theoretical supports and practical guides for enterprises to properly evaluate and monitor the technological innovation ability, knowledge management ability, sustainable innovation ability.
2014 Vol. 31 (1): 101-106 [Abstract] ( 3347 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 910KB] ( 1910 )
107 Administrative Hierarchy, Political Connection and Performance of China’s SOEs
DENG Wei, LIU Jian
Using samples of listed China’s state-owned enterprises(SOE), this paper examines the relationship between political connection and SOEs’ administrative hierarchy, and effect of SOEs’ administrative hierarchy on the relationship between political connection and performance. We find that there are more political connections in SOEs of higher administrative hierarchy and the relationship between political connection and performance is affected by SOEs’ administrative hierarchy. For central SOEs, political connection has no effect on their performance, but for local SOEs, political connection has positive effect on their performance. Difference in formation and influence of SOEs’ political connection implies that government of different levels has different political incentive and capability of deploying economic resources.
2014 Vol. 31 (1): 107-111 [Abstract] ( 2906 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 707KB] ( 1737 )
112 The Structure of Tourism Destination Brand Equity and Its Formation Mechanism——An Empirical Study Based on the Perspective of Destination Image
SHEN Peng-yi
Based on the literature review, this paper builds up formation mechanism model of tourism destination brand equity from the perspective of destination image. The empirical results show that tourism destination brand equity consists of five dimensions, including tourism destination brand awareness, brand quality, brand trust, brand value and brand loyalty, and there are causal links among them. Meanwhile, the effects of destination image on tourism destination brand equity are also verified, and the level of tourism destination brand equity is different among different types of tourism destination.
2014 Vol. 31 (1): 112-117 [Abstract] ( 2969 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 817KB] ( 1951 )
118 Internal Control Quality and Financial Distress Recovery——Based on the ST Companies of A Shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Markets during 2007~2011
HE Li-fen, ZHU Xue-yi, WANG Chuan-bin
Citing the ST companies of A shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Markets during the years of 2007~2011 as samples, this article makes an empirical analysis of the relationships between internal control quality and financial distress recovery by the application of logistic regression model. The indication of the research is that the overall level of internal control quality plays a significantly active role in the financial distress recovery of ST companies. Among all the elements of internal control, control environment, risk appraisal, and internal monitoring are comparatively more helpful in the recovery of the financial distress. For companies which have shaken off the title of “ST”, the level of their internal control quality functions reversely in determining whether they will be dubbed the name of “ST” again, and such companies with low internal control quality are most likely to get into financial troubles for the second time. This article proposes strategies concerning strengthening of the internal control and perfection of the internal control assessment system so as to help the ST companies to quickly flee from the financial distress.
2014 Vol. 31 (1): 118-123 [Abstract] ( 2865 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 853KB] ( 1582 )
124 Research on Product Service Capacity Coordination Mechanism with Side-payment Effect
YAO Shu-jun
Product service capacity coordination has gradually become front-burner issue of manufacturing service operation management research. Service capacity coordination mechanism between duopoly service integrators is constructed by use of side-payment based on Cournot game. According to value of side-payment changing, it shows that individual profit of two service integrators is better off by means of side-payment, revenue distribution is realized fairly and reasonably, so as to ensure stability of product service collaboration on both sides. Finally, the effectiveness of side-payment in product service capacity coordination is analyzed through enterprise operation instances of Qinchuan and Dalian machine tool.
2014 Vol. 31 (1): 124-129 [Abstract] ( 2719 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 763KB] ( 1715 )
130 Research on Supply Chain Risk Assessment Based on Support Vector Machine
SHU Tong, GE Jia-li, CHEN Shou
Supply chain risk assessment is an important content of supply chain risk management. On the basis of literature studies and researches, the paper uses questionnaires to build up a more scientific system of supply chain risk assessment. The support vector machine based on the machine learning algorithm is applied to the evaluation of supply chain risk, and the supply chain risk assessment model is established. By the empirical study, the results indicate that the supply chain risk assessment model of support vector machine can complete the assessment of the actual risk, and has higher training efficiency and accuracy, which shows the effectiveness of this model.
2014 Vol. 31 (1): 130-135 [Abstract] ( 2917 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 843KB] ( 2726 )
136 Transmission Mechanism, Obstacles and Countermeasures from Resource Economics to the Local Financial Revenue ——An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of 30 Coal Cities
DENG Xiao-lan， CHEN Bao-dong， YAN Zhe-ming
Establishing a panel data model and taking advantage of 30 coal cities from 2004 to 2010, we use an empirical study to get the effects and transmission mechanism from resource economics to the local revenue. The results show that: there are some obstacles that affect the resource advantage into the financial and economic advantages; the coal resources are developed mainly through the crowding out of investment in physical capital and human capital as well as the limit of the development of the tertiary industry to constrain the development of the local revenue, among which the effect is most obvious in squeezing out the investment in physical capital. Therefore, we need timely adjustments to promote the upgrading of industrial structure and the existing taxation system reform, to promote economic and ecological transformation of resource-based cities and fiscal sustainability.
2014 Vol. 31 (1): 136-141 [Abstract] ( 2869 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 950KB] ( 1701 )
142 An Analysis of the Relationship between Financialization, Monopoly and Income Distribution in China
LU Chun-yi
The paper attempts to analyze the income inequality in China from the view of financialization. On the basis of mechanism analysis, the paper empirically analyzes the relationship among financialization, monopoly and the income distribution by co-integration tests, impulse responses function and variance decomposition. The empirical study shows that financialization will give rise to the inequalities of national income distribution. But, monopoly will exacerbate the inequalities of income distribution.
2014 Vol. 31 (1): 142-148 [Abstract] ( 2719 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1078KB] ( 1743 )
149 Risk Attitude, Rural Household’s Credit and Credit Rationing   ——Based on the Analysis of Zhangjiagang City Questionnaire
PANG Xin-jun, RAN Guang-he
The paper theoretically analyzes and empirically tests the relationship between the farmer’s risk attitude and credit rationing. The results of descriptive analysis and the Probit model and Logit model indicate that there is a significantly positive relationship between risk attitude and credit rationing. The stronger the farmer’s risk aversion shows, the more seriously the demanded credit rationing produces. The farmer's risk attitude determines the risk cost and risk premium which affects the credit behavior and credit rationing degree. The measures for relieving the farmer’s credit rationing must be taken from government, financial institutions and farmer aspects.
2014 Vol. 31 (1): 149-154 [Abstract] ( 2650 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 916KB] ( 1536 )
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