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Economic Survey

	2013 Vol.1 Issue.6 Published 2013-11-06

Orignal Article

	1	Growth Slowdown, Development Transformation and Reform Restart
		WU Jing-lian
		The crux of China economy is its overt reliability on quantitative mode for economic growth. It is imperative for China to transform from an investment-led growth to efficiency-improvement growth economy. Reform is the decisive condition for this transformation,to eliminate institutional barriers and construct an institutional environment of fostering innovation and entrepreneurship. Such transformation can only be achieved through economics reform for marketization,and political restructuring for democratization and legalization.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 1-6 [Abstract] ( 2559 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 865KB] ( 2132 )

	7	The Review on Regional Responsibility for Carbon Reduction in China——Based on the Transfer of Inter-provincial Carbon Emissions
		ZHAO Hui-qing
		Based on extended input-output tables of 30 provinces,we estimated the embodied carbon emissions in inter-provincial trade. It is found that:(1) in the domestic trade,carbon emissions transferred from energy rich regions to east coastal regions; (2) for international trade,the import and export of carbon emissions is mainly concentrated in coastal regions. Based on the principle of “consumer responsibility”,when distributing the regional responsibility for emissions reductions,China should appropriately increase the responsibility on consumer of energy-intensive products,while cut the responsibility on producer relatively. For achieving the overall national emission reduction targets,it is very important to incentive eastern coastal provinces to support the energy rich provinces with financial,technical and personnel means.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 7-12 [Abstract] ( 3132 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1841KB] ( 1895 )

	13	Study on the Relationship between the Financial Surplus Mobilization and Regional Economic Growth
		ZHANG Fu-tian
		Both government and the capital market are the factors to mobilize the financial surplus production recirculation. but at different economic development stage,the government and the capital market play different roles in the allocation of financial resources. The analysis of the different regions of the empirical data shows that short-term economic growth mainly rely on the government allocation of resources ability enhancement,while long-term economic growth will depend on the degree of financial deepening. The eastern region should expand the scale of the government and improve the degree of financial deepening,the central and western regions should restrain government scale,moderately enhance the level of regional financial deepening.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 13-17 [Abstract] ( 2649 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 833KB] ( 1742 )

	18	Economic Development, Urbanization and Carbon Dioxide Emission in China
		WANG Juan, WEI Wei, MA Song-chang

		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 18-24 [Abstract] ( 3262 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 816KB] ( 1860 )

	25	Empirical Research on China’s Environment and Energy Efficiency
		CAI Jing-mei, NIU Zhuang
		This paper measures the energy efficiency among inter-provincial data in a time span of from 2000 to 2010 by Bootstrap-DEA method . It is found that the energy efficiency value of eastern China is larger than that of western China. And the energy efficiency of all provinces in China do not show convergent tendency during time 2000 and 2008,but shows obvious convergent tendency during time 2009 and 2010. DEA efficiency value is higher than that of Bootstrap-DEA efficiency value in measuring environment energy efficiency. DEA method has obvious differences with Bootstrap method. However,with Spearman coefficient test,the order of efficiency values both from the above two methods show obvious consistency.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 25-29 [Abstract] ( 2868 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 675KB] ( 1829 )

	30	Measurement and Analysis of Poverty Level in China’s Rural:Based on the Construction of a New Poverty Intensity Rate index from Gini Thought
		LI Jin-ye, FENG Zhen-hua, JIA Shi-jie, SHUI Zhou
		This paper first reviews and summarizes the development course and characteristics of previous representative poverty index,points out that the calculation of unbalanced degree is the core problem of poverty consideration,and then based on the research of existing poverty intensity weigh method,through combining the two significant issues of poverty and income inequality,focuses on scientific and reasonable rural poverty intensity measurement,tries to put forward a new calculating idea and method,both from two aspects of structure and quantity effectively to make it the model quantification to construct a concrete index form,according to which measures actual rural intensity of our country in recent three years,analyses its change trends and characteristics empirically,which calculation results coincide with the POVCAL method and show that the income distribution of rural residents have already begun to present “bi-polarization” trend preliminarily,and puts forward reasonable policy suggestions accordingly.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 30-35 [Abstract] ( 2794 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1035KB] ( 1677 )

	36	Reasons for Extensive Income Gap: An Explain From Rural Family Income
		GUO Zhen
		Based on Rural Household Income Survey of 2009,this paper analyzes the income inequality and contribution factors with household as the unit by using Counterfactual Decomposition Method. The results show that rural family income gap between the plain area and mountainous area is not as obvious as that between the well-developed area and less-developed area. District discriminate is the important contribution to the former while the latter is family labors characteristics variables .Education,working experiences,the percentage of trained labors play important roles in reducing family income gap. Labor percentage ,male percentage are also important while the average age of family labors and Square of working experiences are not remarkable,which impacted obviously to personal income.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 36-42 [Abstract] ( 2744 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1030KB] ( 1791 )

	43	Study on Influence Factors of Minor Enterprises’ Loan Demand and Availability in New Type Rural Financial Institutions——Based on the Survey Data of Minor Enterprises in Shaanxi Province
		WANG Jia-mei,LUO Jian-chao,WANG Lei
		Based on the data in a survey referring to minor enterprises lending conditions in new-type rural financial institutions in Shaanxi province,this paper analyzes the factors influencing minor enterprises loan demand and availability in new-type rural financial institutions,respectively by establishing Logit model and Tobit model. The results show that more than half of minor enterprises have a demand for loan from new type rural financial institutions,more than 60% of which get loans in full amount; the loan demand of minor enterprises in new-type rural financial institutions has a positive correlation to industrial types,familiarities of credit policies,relationships between bank and enterprise,fixed assets ratio and flow ratio,however it has a negative correlation to years of establishment; At the same time,what gives negative influences to the lending availability of those minor enterprises are enterprise properties,staff number,familiarities of credit policies and fixed assets ratio. It is pointed that what should be reformed is the minor enterprises themselves,new-type rural financial institutions and financial surveillance departments,so as to improve the lending availability of minor enterprises in new-type rural financial institutions.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 43-48 [Abstract] ( 2921 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 915KB] ( 2002 )

	49	FDI,International Trade and Transformation of Economic Growth Patterns——Based on Panel Data from 1993 to 2008 in China
		LIU Nian-kang, WANG Yun-qiao, CHEN Feng-wen
		Based on provincial panel data from 1993 to 2008,the paper discusses the effects of FDI and openness degree on the transformation of economic growth patterns. The results show the present difference with the breakpoint of 1999. Regression based on the total sample shows FDI contributes to the promotion of TFP,while openness degree prevents TFP; regression based on the breakpoint of 1999 shows openness degree after 1999 have less remarkable effects,while FDI has stable influence; regression based regions shows that FDI and openness degree in central region has more remarkable influence towards TFP than western region and eastern region. Policy suggestion put forward based on China reality.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 49-54 [Abstract] ( 3140 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 845KB] ( 1799 )

	55	Sino-US Economic and Trade Relations: Near or Far?——International Comparison of Commodity Trade, Services Trade and FDI
		GAO Zhi-xiong, LU Jin-yong, GAO Fei
		Based on the data of 1999-2009,this paper analyzes the relative economic and trade position in aspect of commodity trade,service trade and FDI between China and U.S. among 41 major partners of U.S. using factor combined degree which is expanded to services trade and FDI from trade combined degree and the economic and trade relation indicators firstly constructed in the paper. The results show that the economic and trade relationship between U.S.and China,in comparison,is not closely while the relation of imported trade is near,the tendency of relation in commodity trade,exported trade in service and outward FDI are different. Furthermore,the paper also demonstrates that there existing little differentiation among the relation of US-China,US-France,US-Sweden,US-Italy,US-Chinese Hong Kong,US-Norway,US-Thailand,US-German,and more similar relation between US-China and US-France in commodity trade,service trade and FDI.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 55-60 [Abstract] ( 2981 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 884KB] ( 1801 )

	61	Informationization level, Technical Input, Production Outsourcing and Export Participation——The Empirical Research Base on Firm Data
		YU Jian-xun, JIN Zhe-song
		The paper discusses the relation among heterogeneity firm’s informationization level,technical input,production outsourcing and export participation by analyzing firm panel data 2006 to 2010. The results show that the firm’s informationization level,technical input and production outsourcing have significant positive influence on the export participation.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 61-65 [Abstract] ( 2594 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 574KB] ( 1730 )

	66	Comparative Study on Anti-dumping Trade Barriers and China’s Steel Foreign Trade Issues
		WANG La-fang, YE Han, LIU Jun
		This paper calculates the anti-dumping investigations index and the anti-dumping definitive measures index against China’s steel products by horizontal and vertical comparison. Using the formula of antidumping intensity index,the paper also calculated the anti-dumping intensity index and its influence suffered form the main originating countries or regions. Finally,using the econometrical model,the relationship among the anti-dumping behavior and the balance of trade and import proportion has been analyzed. The findings show: during 1999~2009,the number of anti-dumping against China’s steel products ranks No.1,but the anti-dumping investigations index and the anti-dumping definitive measures index are rank No.3,after India and South Korea,indicating that the affection by foreign AD actions on Chinese steel exports are turned from slightly to badly. Main originating countries or regions are U.S.A,Canada and Mexico,etc. Expand of the trade deficit of China’s steel exports and the proportion of steel products imported from China was strongly affected by anti-dumping activities.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 66-71 [Abstract] ( 2799 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 938KB] ( 2182 )

	72	Research on the Relation between ODI and Industrial Upgrading in the United States
		GAO Li-feng, LI Wen-fang, YU Ya-qian
		This paper analyzes the development characteristics in outward direct investment and the industrial structure in the United States by structuring the index of industrial upgrading,and VAR model to research the relation on outward direct investment and industrial upgrading in the United States. Comparing China with United States in GDP,we can find that level of economic development that in China at present is really close to United States in the 1990s.On this basis,the mathematical model of grey relevance degree is used to analyze the relevance degree between eight major industrial of outward direct investment in the United States and its upgrading of the industrial structure from 1990 to 2001.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 72-76 [Abstract] ( 3151 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 739KB] ( 1886 )

	77	Evolutionary Game Analysis of Network Industries Interconnection——Take Telecom Industry as an example
		LI Nan, WU Shi-An
		This paper studies the telecommunications industry,the typical network industries,and operation strategy selection during its interconnection by evolutionary game theory. We describe the long-term evolutionary trend of operators who compete and cooperate during interconnection by an evolutionary stable strategy,discuss the effect of regulatory agencies punishment on telecom operators. It argues that the government punishment on refusing interconnection,access pricing and the benefit caused by refusing interconnection are the important factors to affect system evolution results. This study is conducive to balance the interests of telecommunication enterprises who take part in interconnection,promote the implementation of effective competition in the telecommunications market. Meanwhile,the study also has some positive value on interconnection of the other network industries.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 77-82 [Abstract] ( 2549 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 830KB] ( 1672 )

	83	The Evolution Analysis of China’s Central Region on Logistics Industry Agglomeration
		DAI Zhi-min, GUO Lu, HE Yi-qin
		The paper compares data of tsix provinces from1990-2008 years by agglomeration theory and econometric analysis model. It is found that the inner agglomeration of central logistics and economic development period situation are better,However,all the provinces,there does not match the inter-industry trend. The integration of logistics and finance industry is still in its infancy and accelerating period throughout the central region. In general,the evolution of Hunan、Anhui province are better,Henan、Shanxi provinces are in general,Jiangxi and Hubei provinces are the poor. Within the foreseeable future,the two industries will show a trend of saturation,an urgent need of industrial restructuring and upgrading to advance the implementation.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 83-88 [Abstract] ( 2867 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 937KB] ( 2085 )

	89	The Model of the Endogenous Growth of the Firm under the Core Resource-Based View of the Firm
		LIU Chang-geng, WANG Ying-chun
		This paper puts forward the core resource-based theory of the firm based on the resource and capability of enterprise theory. Enterprise’s core resource is scarce,value,unimitate,inreplaceable.Residual core resource is released continually in the production and operation of the enterprise,which gains new opportunity of production and promotes the endogenous growth of the enterprise. The endogenous growth model of the firm,basing on the enterprise’s core resources,can draw the critical condition of the enterprise’s specialization,diversification and internationalization.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 89-93 [Abstract] ( 2876 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 627KB] ( 1767 )

	94	The Optimal Investment Timing of Visitor Attractions Based on Real Options
		GUO Chun-fan
		This paper studies the optimal timing of the visitor attraction investment by the model of the optimal investment timing of the visitor attraction under the assumption that the number of tourists is following Geometric Brownian Motion. The conclusion is: the greater the uncertainty of tourism demand is,the values of the project and the investing option are. The enterprise should analyze the change of the market and choice the optimal timing by using the uncertainty. In addition,it reveals the reasons for the enterprise asking a long operating rights and receipt tourists without limited,and provides a basis for the government to regulate the investing.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 94-99 [Abstract] ( 2776 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 742KB] ( 1834 )

	100	The Effect of Idiosyncratic Human Capital on the Competitiveness of China Service Trade——Empirical Analysis based on the “Diamond” Model
		LI Bin, LIU Hui-hong, PENG Xing
		This paper studies the influence of heterogeneous human capital on the competitiveness of China’s service trade with the help of the Lucas mechanism of action by building a new ’diamond’ model with State Space Model and GMM from 1985 to 2010 time series data. The results show that the level of the country’s human capital stays in a low condition. Human capital in service trade,FDI and the GDP per person are factors,and human capital is the key point in the competitiveness of services trade. The higher the level of the human capital,the smaller the effect it has on the service trade of our country. Creating a favorable external environment and developing the accumulation of high-level human capital or the competitive advantage of modern trade in services is a top priority.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 100-106 [Abstract] ( 3072 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1161KB] ( 1700 )

	107	Reputation, Conflict of Interest and Optimistic Bias in Security Analysts’ Investment Recommendations
		KANG Jian
		Conflict of interest between brokerage and underwriting activities and security analysts’ research may result in optimistic bias in investment recommendations. This statement is tested in this paper based on the investment recommendations from July,2007 to June,2009. It is found that: in China,much more important brokerage activity is for security firms,more optimistic security analysts’ recommendations are,while underwriting pressure seems to have no significant effect on investment recommendations. Furthermore,much more stocks institutional investors hold,less optimistic investment recommendations are. Because security firms and their analysts’ reputation are usually evaluated by institutional investors,career concerns have the important role in moderating the optimistic bias.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 107-112 [Abstract] ( 2762 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 865KB] ( 1790 )

	113	The Effectiveness in Regulation of Rights Issues:Evidence on Long-run Performance
		WANG Liang-cheng, SONG Juan
		The paper investigates the effectiveness of the regulation of rights issues in terms of direct and indirect effect,during the two different regulation periods,1999-2000 and 2001-2002. The evidence indicates that based on the accounting and stock performance after announcement of rights issue proposal approved by the board,China’s regulation of rights issues is generally approximately effective as the direct and indirect effect of the regulation,and the regulation of rights issue is stricter and more effective over time.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 113-118 [Abstract] ( 2716 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 859KB] ( 1861 )

	119	Conduction Mechanisms and Externalities of Financial Crisis on China’s Real Economy——Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Perspective
		SU Ming
		This paper tests the linkage between China’s stock market index and USA stock market index with VAR mode and DSGE model by adding new presume on RBC. By methodical model analysis,it is found that the US financial crisis’s impulse affect on China’s real economy with conduction mechanism and externalities. Proposal made for government policy making.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 119-124 [Abstract] ( 2628 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1136KB] ( 1833 )

	125	Markets Foundation, Futures Market Speculation and the Volatility of International Crude Oil Prices: Based on a SVAR Model
		LIU Jian
		This paper analyzes the factors of international oil prices fluctuations with monthly data from 2003 to 2011 by Granger causality test and VAR model. The results show that: Speculation in crude oil futures market forces has become an important reason of the current international oil price fluctuations,and its impact become even more than the market demand factors; Market demand continues to act as the most important factor on international oil price volatility,but the role of speculative factor has not weakened and it is still significantly affect the movement of oil prices; the movements of crude oil stocks and the dollar exchange index also have a significant effect on international oil prices fluctuations,while the effect of oil market supply and the interest is relatively small.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 125-129 [Abstract] ( 2668 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 720KB] ( 1839 )

	130	Two Problems of Urban Land Transfer and the Review of a Possible Solution——An Analysis on the Perspective of Bargaining
		HUANG Yi-heng, XIONG Jin-wu
		Urban land transfer means the transfer of ownership or the right to use in urban expanding and city land planning. Transaction costs and efficiency are two basic problems of urban land transfer,which are the key to analyze and solve today’s nail household problem. Based on a two-stage dynamic model of local government,merchants and household,the problems of today’s urban land transfer is described,and a possible solution is reviewed.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 130-136 [Abstract] ( 2968 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1069KB] ( 1831 )

	137	An Impact Analysis on Public Transfer Income on the Inner Inequality in Rural Areas
		YU Le-rong, TANG Li-xia, LI Xiao-yun
		Based on the provincial panel data of 2000-2010,the paper explores the impact of public transfer income on the inner inequality in rural China by means of GE index and decomposition methods for diversified income. It shows that public transfer income as one of the most important ways of income re-allocation,actually has no obvious impacts on reducing the inequality for rural population,and has no positive impacts on reducing the inequality between rural and urban areas. The main reasons include the comparative shortage of government’s financial transfer for rural areas and uneven allocation of transfer in rural people. Wage income is now the main determinant of rural inner inequality. Finally the paper gives some related policy recommendations such as increasing the financial transfer for rural areas and poverty population,meantime improving the effectiveness of policy implementation.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 137-142 [Abstract] ( 2643 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 920KB] ( 2228 )

	143	Fiscal Revenue Structure and the Deficit Scale——Based on the Analysis of China’s 31 Provincial Local Governments
		LI Yong-gang, ZHU Zi-yi
		This paper discusses the tax system reform theoretically and empirically,local government budget deficit expanding reason. The local government budget deficit is the difference between the local fiscal revenue and fiscal expenditure. Theoretical analysis shows that the local fiscal revenue,including income transfer payments to non-tax revenue,shared tax revenue,local tax revenue. It is found that the different items of income of the local government budget deficit.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 143-148 [Abstract] ( 2525 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1008KB] ( 1791 )

	149	The Impact Studies of Fiscal and Tax Policy Evolvement on the Development of Regional Industrial Structure——Provincial Panel Data Analysis in View of Fiscal Decentralization
		HUANG Xian-lin
		This paper analyzes the total influence effect and regional differential effect of fiscal and tax policy evolvement on the development of regional industrial structure by building a quantitative model. It is found that firstly,the more fiscal decentralization evolved,the more effects did to regional industrial structure; secondly,negative relationship exists between local tax and charges’ level and regional industrial structure’s development level; besides,the scale of expenditure and most of the fiscal expenditure items have obvious stimulation effects to regional industrial structure’s development,while expenditure for science and education presents a slightly negative correlation; thirdly,the effect of expenditure item to regional industrial structure’s development level is regional differences apparently.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 149-155 [Abstract] ( 2423 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1066KB] ( 1686 )

	156	Real Exchange Rate, Expectation Deviation of Exchange Rate and Trade Balance
		CAI Hao-yi,JIANG Da-wei
		Based on Balassa-Samuelson effect theory,this paper introduces the expectations and wage adjustments lag into the exchange rate pass-through equation and gets some basic properties of the real exchange rate: the real exchange rate is subject to random walk,and it is subject to random walk with a drift term in developing countries; Fluctuations of real exchange rate mainly derive from the fluctuations of expectation deviation. These findings well explain the question raised by Paul Krugman (1989) why the real exchange rate in the floating exchange rate system was much more volatile than in the fixed exchange rate system. This paper further analyzes the way the real exchange rate affects the balance of trade. The deviation of exchange rate expectation affects trade balance finally. Then through autoregression of the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the empirical test of Sino-US trade balance with the exchange rate expectation deviation,the conclusions of theoretical analysis are well proved.
		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 156-161 [Abstract] ( 2951 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 892KB] ( 1946 )

	162
		YUAN Cheng

		2013 Vol. 1 (6): 162-165 [Abstract] ( 2464 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 758KB] ( 1549 )

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