基础设施与经济增长的互动影响--基于VAR模型的动态分析

摘要笔者利用1949年~2008年北京市相关时间序列数据，基于协整理论和向量误差修正模型，分析了北京市各类城市基础设施指标与其总产出水平之间的协整关系以及Granger因果关系。从长期来看，各类基础设施确实是经济增长的基础条件，然而在长期中总产出水平仅对公路、医疗类及教育类基础设施的发展有较为显著的影响。从短期来看，只有医疗类基础设施和文化类基础设施对经济增长有促进作用。此外，社会基础设施对北京市经济增长的促进作用大于经济基础设施的促进作用，尤其是医疗类基础设施，它在短期和长期都对经济增长起到重要的促进作用。

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	夏业良
	程磊

关键词：经济基础设施社会基础设施总产出总人口经济结构

Abstract： Based on the co-integration and Vector Error Correction Model, using time-series data in Beijing during the period 1949—2009, the authors empirically analyze the co-integration relationship and Granger causality between the indexes of all kinds of infrastructure of Beijing and their total output. In the long run, all the kinds of infrastructures are indeed the fundamental condition for the economic growth of Beijing. However, the economic growth in turn has significant effect merely on the infrastructures of road, hospital and education in the long run. As for the short term, only medical and cultural infrastructures play an important role in promoting economic growth. In addition, the effect of the social infrastructures on the economic growth is greater than that of the economic infrastructures, especially the infrastructure of hospital, which plays a significant role in promoting economic growth in the short and long run

Keywords： economic infrastructure social infrastructure total output total population economic structure

收稿日期 2011-03-16; 接受日期 2011-10-30;

作者简介: 夏业良 (1960-) 男，安徽芜湖人，北京大学经济学院教授、博导，主要从事西方经济史、制度经济学、宏观经济与公共政策研究；程磊 (1982-)，男，湖北恩施人，北京大学博士研究生，主要从事应用计量经济学研究。

引用本文:

夏业良, 程磊.基础设施与经济增长的互动影响--基于VAR模型的动态分析[J]. 经济经纬, 2011,4: 14-19

XIA Ye-liang, CHENG Lei.The Interaction between Infrastructure and Economic Growth--A Dynamic Analysis Based on the Method of Vector Auto Regression[J] Economic Survey, 2011,V28(4): 14-19

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2011/V28/I4/14