Abstract：
Based on the credit scale data of the U.S. government, residents, finance and enterprises from 1952 to 2016, this paper empirically studies the inter sector linkage mechanism of credit scale change from multiple perspectives. The empirical results show that: the change of credit scale not only exists between single sectors, but also has a strong transmission effect in the joint change of two or three sectors. In the linkage mechanism of the change of credit scale of four sectors, the financial sector is in the core position in risk contagion, with the strongest transmission, and is not easily affected by other sectors; the residents' risk transmission is the weakest; the government sector is most vulnerable to other sectors. In the three levels of credit risk transmission process, the first, second and third levels of the linkage of credit scale increases successively. This study is of great significance to China's credit governance, especially for the prevention of systematic risks caused by disordered changes in credit scale.
XIE Qiao-yan.The Internal Linkage Mechanism of Credit Scale Change Among Departments ——An Empirical Analysis Based on Cases in the United States[J] Economic Survey, 2019,V36(6): 125-132
胡学平,杨利敏,徐梦洁.2018.居民杠杆率结构性飙升对金融风险的影响分析——基于荆州市居民杠杆率的调查[J].武汉金融(9):78-81. 卡尔. 2001.货币理论与政策[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社. 林清泉,张建龙,杨丰.2007.中国信用体系建设中的个人信用模糊评估[J].山西财经大学学报(2):81-85. 刘尚希,李成威,杨德威.2018.财政与国家治理:基于不确定性与风险社会的逻辑[J].财政研究(1):10-19. 陆婷.2015.中国非金融企业债务:风险、走势及对策[J].国际经济评论(5):67-77. 上海财经大学高等研究院课题组.2018.企业和家庭债务交互式负反馈效应增加去杠杆难度[J].中国经济报告(10):94-96. 申香华.2014.银行风险识别、政府财政补贴与企业债务融资成本——基于沪深两市2007—2012年公司数据的实证检验[J].财贸经济(9):62-71. 许桂华.2013.家庭债务变动与居民消费的过度敏感性:来自中国的证据[J].财经科学(3):95-104. 张兵,范致镇,李心丹.2010.中美股票市场的联动性研究[J].经济研究(11):141-151. 张鸣,范柏乃.2013.地方政府信用的内涵、结构要素及实际测度[J].探索(4):52-59. 张晓朴.2010.系统性金融风险研究:演进、成因与监管[J].国际金融研究(7):58-67. 中国人民银行南昌中心支行课题组.2017.金融风险与财政风险的协同管理研究——以政府引导基金为例[J].金融与经济(12):57-64. 朱莎,裴沛.2018.新时期中国金融市场风险状态甄别和政策冲击研究[J].中央财经大学学报(11):24-37. BOADWAY R, CUFF K, MARCHAND M.2003.Equalization and the decentralization of revenue-raising in a federation [J].Journal of Public Economic Theory, 5(2):201-228. BOADWAY R, TREMBLAY J.2005.A theory of vertical fiscal imbalance [M]. Montreal: Queen’s University Press. EDWARDS S, ARLOS A.1997.Banks and macroeconomic disturbances under predetermined exchange rates [J].Journal of Monetary Economics, 40(2): 239-278. KORANI J. 1986.The soft budget constraint [J]. Kyklos, 39(1):3-30. SOYDEMIR G. 2000. International transmission mechanism of stock market movements: Evidence from emerging equity markets [J]. Journal of Forecasting, 19(3):149-176. VELASCO A.1999.A model of endogenous fiscal deficits 551 and delayed fiscal reforms [M].Chicago: Univ. of Chicago Press.
2019 
