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    经济经纬 2022 Issue (1) :59-68
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    宏观审慎政策与收入不平等
李巧明1,2
1.中国电子科学研究院,北京 100041;
2.中国电科发展战略研究中心,北京 100043
    Macro-prudential Policy and Income Inequality
    LI Qiaoming1,2
1. China Academy of Electronic and Information Technology,Beijing 100041, China;
2. CETC Research Center for Development and Strategy,Beijing 100043, China
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摘要 借助世代交替模型,得到宏观审慎政策影响收入不平等的理论机制,接着基于2000—2018年59国的非平衡面板数据,分析宏观审慎政策对收入不平等的影响。实证结果表明:(1)住房贷款价值比(LTV)上限与基尼系数呈负相关关系,说明实行降低LTV上限的宏观审慎政策对居民收入分配差距具有扩大作用,且扩大作用在新兴市场国家更为显著。(2)当LTV上限值较低时,降低LTV上限进一步扩大了收入不平等程度;相反,当LTV值较高时,降低LTV上限却减小了收入不平等程度,宏观审慎工具的政策效果呈现异质性特征。(3)将降低LTV上限的宏观审慎政策替换为提高存款准备金率等政策后,实证结论基本不变。实证结果在不同收入不平等变量、不同虚拟变量和不同面板模型下均表现出高度稳健性。对于我国而言,中国人民银行在制定宏观审慎政策时,应考虑政策的收入再分配效应,从而在确保政策有效性的同时,兼顾政策公平性。
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李巧明
关键词LTV上限   宏观审慎政策   收入不平等   世代交替模型     
Abstract: With the help of the OLG model, this paper obtains the theoretical mechanism of the impact of macro-prudential policies on income inequality, and then analyzes the impact of macro-prudential policies on equity based on the unbalanced panel data of 59 countries from 2000 to 2018. There are following empirical results: (1) There is a negative correlation between the housing loan value ratio (LTV) cap and the Gini coefficient, indicating that the macro-prudential policy of lowering the upper limit of LTV can widen the gap of residents’ income distribution, and the effect is more significant in emerging market countries. (2) When the upper limit of LTV is lower, lowering LTV cap further expands the level of income inequality. Conversely, when the value of LTV is higher, lowering LTV cap reduces the level of income inequality. And the policy effect of the macro-prudential tool exhibits heterogeneous characteristics. (3) After replacing the macro-prudential policy of lowering LTV cap with the policies of increasing the deposit reserve ratio, the empirical conclusion remains basically unchanged. The empirical results show high robustness under different income inequality variables, different dummy variables and different panel models. As for China is concerned, when formulating macro-prudential policies, the People’s Bank of China should consider the income redistribution of the policy, so as to ensure the effectiveness of the policy while taking into account the fairness of the policy.
KeywordsLTV Caps   Macro-prudential Policy   Income Inequality   OLG Model     
收稿日期 2021-01-21; 接受日期 ;
基金资助:河北省社会科学基金项目(HB13GL035)
作者简介: 李巧明(1989— ),女,湖南邵阳人,博士,工程师,主要从事宏观审慎政策、文化产业、数字创意产业研究。
引用本文:   
李巧明.宏观审慎政策与收入不平等[J].  经济经纬, 2022,1: 59-68
LI Qiaoming.Macro-prudential Policy and Income Inequality[J]  Economic Survey, 2022,V39(1): 59-68
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