公共转移支付与农户消费

摘要从理论层面归纳公共转移支付影响农户消费的作用机制,利用2010—2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据,构建双固定效应的面板模型进行估计,探讨公共转移支付对农户消费的影响,借助中介调节效应分析法检验其中的作用机制。结果表明:公共转移支付的存在和数额的增加均有助于刺激农户提高消费支出,且其对低消费家庭的影响更为明显,这有助于缓解农村消费不平等状况;公共转移支付会通过提高家庭人均收入、增加家庭面临的有利的收入不确定性、降低家庭面临的不利的收入不确定性及改善农村内部收入分配状况等路径刺激农户消费,其覆盖率和发放额同样重要。因此,扩大公共转移支付的覆盖率,提高其瞄准度、发放额及稳定性,有助于进一步释放农村市场消费潜力。

	Service

	把本文推荐给朋友
	加入我的书架
	加入引用管理器
	Email Alert
	RSS
	作者相关文章
	刘雯

关键词：公共转移支付农户消费中介调节效应

Abstract： In this paper, the mechanism of public transfer payments on household consumption is summarized from the theoretical level. Based on the data of Chinese household tracking survey from 2010 to 2018, a double-fixed effect panel model is constructed to estimate the effect of public transfer payments on household consumption, and the mediating effect analysis method is used to test the mechanism. The are following findings: The existence and the amount of the public transfer payment help to stimulate farmers to increase their consumption expenditure, and the effect on low-consumption families is more obvious, which can help alleviate the rural consumption inequality situation. Then, the public transfer payment will stimulate the rural consumption by increasing household per capita income, increasing the favorable income uncertainty, reducing the adverse income uncertainty and improving the internal income distribution in rural areas. And the coverage rate and the amount are equally important. Therefore, it will be helpful for the further release of the consumption potential of rural market that expanding the coverage of public transfer payments and improving their targeting, disbursement and stability.

Keywords： Public Transfer Payment Rural Consumption Intermediary and Mediating Effect

收稿日期 2020-12-22; 接受日期 ;

基金资助:教育部人文社会科学研究项目(20YJC790084);山西省软科学研究计划资助项目(2019041061-1)

作者简介: 刘雯(1989— ),女,山西临县人,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,主要从事农户消费研究。

引用本文:

刘雯.公共转移支付与农户消费[J]. 经济经纬, 2021,4: 23-32

LIU Wen.Public Transfer Payment and Rural Consumption[J] Economic Survey, 2021,V38(4): 23-32

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2021/V38/I4/23

边恕,宋经翔,孙雅娜.2020.中国城乡居民养老金缓解老年贫困的效应分析:基于绝对贫困与相对贫困双重视角[J].辽宁大学学报(哲学社会科学版)(1):88-97.
陈国强, 罗楚亮, 吴世艳. 2018. 公共转移支付的减贫效应估计:收入贫困还是多维贫困?[J].数量经济技术经济研究(5): 59-76.
樊丽明, 解垩. 2014. 公共转移支付减少了贫困脆弱性吗?[J].经济研究(8): 67-78.
李立, 李春琦. 2019. 我国消费平滑的地区性差异及其根源:家庭、社区和政府的比较分析[J].财经研究(4): 124-139.
刘双, 祁春节, 赵玉. 2017. 转移支付对农村不同阶层消费行为的影响研究[J].农业技术经济(8): 117- 128.
刘雯. 2018. 收入差距、社会资本与农户消费[J].中国农村经济(6): 84-100.
沈坤荣, 谢勇. 2012. 不确定性与中国城镇居民储蓄率的实证研究[J].金融研究(3): 1-13.
宋颜群, 解垩. 2020. 政府转移支付的扶贫效率、减贫效应及减贫方案选择[J].当代经济科学(2):1-15.
温忠麟, 叶宝娟. 2014. 中介效应分析:方法和模型发展[J].心理科学进展(5): 731-745.
解垩. 2015. 公共转移支付与老年人的多维贫困[J].中国工业经济(11): 32-46.
解垩. 2018. 税收和转移支付对收入再分配的贡献[J].经济研究(8): 116-131.
张勋, 万广华, 张佳佳, 等. 2019. 数字经济、普惠金融与包容性增长[J].经济研究(8): 71-86.
周广肃, 张牧扬, 樊纲. 2020. 地方官员任职经历、公共转移支付与居民消费不平等[J].经济学(季刊)(1): 61-80.
ARDINGTON C, CASE A, HOSEGOOD V. 2009. Labor supply responses to large social transfers: Longitudinal evidence from South Africa [J]. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 1(1): 22-48.
ATTANASIO O, MESNARD A. 2006. The impact of a conditional cash transfer programme on consumption in Colombia [J]. Fiscal Studies, 27(4): 421-442.
FISMAN R, SVENSSON J. 2007. Are corruption and taxation really harmful to growth? Firm level evidence [J]. Journal of Development Economics, 83(1): 63-75.
FRANK R H, LEVINE A S, DIJK O. 2014. Expenditure cascades [J]. Review of Behavioral Economics, 1(1/2): 55-73.
HAYES A F. 2009. Beyond Baron and Kenny: Statistical mediation analysis in the new millennium [J]. Communication Monographs, 76(4): 408-420.
JIN Y, LI H, WU B. 2011. Income inequality, consumption and social-status seeking [J]. Journal of Comparative Economics, 39(2): 191-204.
KAMAKURA W A, MAZZON J A. 2015. Measuring the impact of a conditional cash transfer program on consumption behavior with propensity scoring [J]. Customer Needs and Solutions, (2): 302-316.
TUTOR M V. 2014. The impact of the Philippines conditional cash transfer program on consumption [J]. The Philippine Review of Economics, 51(1): 117-161.
WONG W K. 2012. Consumption response to government transfers: Behavioral motives revealed by savers and spenders [J]. Contemporary Economic Policy, 30(4): 489-501.