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    经济经纬 2017 Issue (3) :123-128
    宏观经济 最新目录 | 下期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
    新常态下CPI与PPI背离的货币成因分析
    刘金全,张 都
    吉林大学商学院 数量经济研究中心,吉林 长春,130000
    The Monetary Reasons of “Divergence” between CPI and PPIin the New Normal Period
    LIU Jin-quan, ZHANG Du
    Centre for Quantitive Economics Research, Business School of Jilin University, Changchun 130000, China
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摘要 自我国进入宏观经济新常态阶段以来,CPI水平保持低位正增长的同时,PPI水平却出现了连续的下滑态势,二者之间出现了较大程度的背离,这不仅与经济理论不符,同时也使得货币政策调控物价水平的功能受到了严重的制约,经济结构转型受阻。针对这一点,对新常态下CPI与PPI产生背离的货币政策原因进行动态分析。研究发现,不同时期下CPI与PPI对货币冲击反应的差异性引起了CPI与PPI之间背离现象,而这同时也是新常态下货币政策调控二者之间剪刀差效果甚微的原因。故而,中央银行应该强化价格型调节和传导机制,疏通货币政策向实体经济的传导渠道,从而提高货币政策的运行效率和服务实体经济的能力,缓解CPI与PPI之间的背离现象。
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刘金全
张 都
关键词货币政策   通货膨胀水平   结构性背离   TVP-VAR模型   货币政策   通货膨胀水平   结构性背离   TVP-VAR模型     
Abstract: Since China has been in the new normal macroeconomic period, CPI remained low positive growth, while PPI held consecutively negative downward trend. There has been a great degree of divergence between CPI and PPI. Monetary policy in regulating prices has been severely constrained, and China’s economic restructuring has been blocked. In this paper, we concentrate on the reasons in monetary policy why the divergence between CPI and PPI was generated by dynamic analysis method. The study finds that at different periods of time, the changes of CPI and PPI response to monetary impact caused the divergence between CPI and PPI, which was the reason why in the new normal period monetary policy could not reduce the scissors differences between the CPI and PPI levels effectively. Therefore, the central bank should strengthen the price-based regulation and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, clear transmission channels to the real economy. By enhancing operational efficiency and the ability of monetary policy serving the real economy, central bank could reduce the divergence between the CPI and the PPI.
KeywordsMonetary Policy   Inflation   Structural Divergence   TVP-VAR Structural Model   Monetary Policy   Inflation   Structural Divergence   TVP-VAR Structural Model     
收稿日期 2017-05-11; 接受日期 2017-05-11;
基金资助:国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDC008);国家社会科学基金重点项目(15AZD001)
作者简介: 刘金全(1964— ),男,黑龙江密山人,博士,教授,长江学者,主要从事计量经济学、宏观经济学研究;张都(1990— ),男,吉林长春人,博士研究生,主要从事宏观计量分析研究。
引用本文:   
刘金全,张 都.新常态下CPI与PPI背离的货币成因分析[J].  经济经纬, 2017,3: 123-128
LIU Jin-quan, ZHANG Du.The Monetary Reasons of “Divergence” between CPI and PPIin the New Normal Period[J]  Economic Survey, 2017,V34(3): 123-128
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