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    经济经纬 2015 Issue (4) :138-143
    财政金融 最新目录 | 下期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
    境内外人民币汇率的动态关联、信息传导与政策含义
    马正兵
    重庆第二师范学院 经济与工商管理系, 重庆 400065
    Dynamic Interrelations, Information Transfer among Domestic and Overseas RMB Exchange Rates and Its Implications
    MA Zheng-bing
    (Department of Economics and Business Administration, Chongqing University of Education,Chongqing 400065,China)
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摘要 笔者选择2005年7月至2012年9月人民币兑美元汇率,利用交叉谱分析对境内外人民币汇率的动态关联信息传导进行实证研究。研究发现境内外人民币汇率的联动性既与观察的时间周期相关,也与远期外汇产品的期限相关。观察周期越长,境外NDF、境内DF与即期汇率动态关联的一致性越高。人民币汇率形成机制改革要着力把握好人民币NDF“在岸化”与人民币国际化、发展人民币境内远期市场与推进外汇产品衍生化等关系。
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马正兵
关键词人民币   价格发现   交叉谱分析     
Abstract: This paper makes positive study of dynamic interrelations and information transfer among domestic and overseas RMB exchange rates by a cross-spectral analysis of the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar from July 2005 to September 2012.The empirical evidences suggest that dynamic interrelations among domestic and overseas RMB exchange rate depend not only on the length of the observation periods also on the term of the forward foreign exchange rates. The longer the observation period, the higher the coherence of the dynamic interrelation between the RMB exchange rate in the domestic and foreign currency becomes. So reforming of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism needs to handle well the relationships of developing domestic NDF and pushing the internationalization of RMB, developing domestic forward exchange rate markets and promoting the development of foreign exchange derivatives, promoting the marketization of RMB exchange rate and interest rate, official appreciation or amplitude control for response to the expectation of RMB appreciation.
KeywordsRMB   Price Discovery   Cross-spectral Analysis     
收稿日期 2013-05-25; 接受日期 2015-07-29;
作者简介: 马正兵(1974-),男,重庆市人,博士,副教授,主要从事金融理论与政策研究。
引用本文:   
马正兵.境内外人民币汇率的动态关联、信息传导与政策含义[J].  经济经纬, 2015,4: 138-143
MA Zheng-bing.Dynamic Interrelations, Information Transfer among Domestic and Overseas RMB Exchange Rates and Its Implications[J]  Economic Survey, 2015,V31(4): 138-143
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