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Economic Survey
2026 Vol.43 Issue.2
Published 2026-03-10
3
Construction of a Unified National Market, Cross-Regional Capital Flow and Regional Economic Disparities: Evidence from Listed Companies Establishing Non-Local Subsidiaries
FAN Wencheng, WANG Shoukun
Based on geographic information data of parent companies and subsidiaries of listed enterprises from 2016 to 2022, this study examines how capital flows across regions during the advancement of the unified national market construction and the resulting patterns of regional economic distribution. The evidence shows that efforts to build a unified national market at the city level produce a “diversion effect” with capital preferentially flowing to more integrated markets. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the promoting effect of market integration on cross-regional capital inflows is more pronounced for non-state-owned enterprises, large-scale firms, cross-provincial flows, and in eastern regions. Mechanism analysis indicates that market integration can effectively reduce the institutional and information costs associated with cross-regional capital inflows by prompting local governments to relax market entry barriers and enhancing the information acquisition capabilities of non-local enterprises. Further empirical evidence suggests that market integration fosters capital agglomeration from peripheral to central cities within the core-periphery structure, creating a “siphoning effect” that amplifies the spatial concentration of economic activities-a pattern explained by the superior market scale and industrial comparative advantages of central cities. The conclusions provide valuable insights for understanding the new development patterns of cross-regional capital flows in China during the construction of a unified national market.
2026 Vol. 43 (2): 3-18 [
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Relaxation of Market Access Regulation and Improvement of Green Total-Factor Energy Efficiency: A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on the Pilot “Negative List forMarket Access” System
WANG Mingrong, WANG Mengle, DING Meng
Based on panel data from 280 prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2022, this study employs a multi-period difference-in-differences model to examine the impact of the market access negative list system on green total-factor energy efficiency and its underlying mechanisms. The results show that the implementation of the market access negative list policy has significantly improved urban green total-factor energy efficiency. The conclusion that remains robust even after addressing potential endogeneity concerns and accounting for heterogeneous treatment effects. Mechanism analysis indicates that the market-access negative-list policy significantly enhances green total-factor energy efficiency through green technological innovation, optimized factor allocation and upgrading of the industrial structure. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the market access negative list system has a stronger improving effect on green total-factor energy efficiency in cities with higher administrative levels, lower market segmentation, stronger intellectual property protection and non-resource-based economic structures. The above conclusions demonstrate that persistently advancing market access regulation reform nationwide facilitates the coordinated promotion of deepened market-oriented reforms and green sustainable development. This holds significant theoretical and practical implications for establishing a long-term market-driven mechanism to promote urban energy conservation and emission reduction.
2026 Vol. 43 (2): 19-31 [
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Theoretical Mechanisms and Empirical Research on How the Construction of a Unified National Market Facilitates the Formation of New Quality Productive Forces
WANG Siwen
Based on data of Chinese listed companies from 2013 to 2020, this study examines the theoretical logic and mechanism through which the development of a unified national market fosters the formation of new quality productive forces. The empirical findings are as follows. First, the construction of a unified national market significantly facilitates the formation of new quality productive forces, a conclusion that remains robust across multiple robustness tests. Second, accelerating the construction of a unified national market more effectively drives the formation of new quality productive forces through enhanced resource allocation efficiency, transformation of innovation achievements and deep industrial transformation. Third, heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effect varies across industries and regions. The unified national market more significantly promotes new quality productive forces in capital-intensive industries and the eastern region, whereas it exhibits an inhibitory effect in technology-intensive industries and the central region. The above conclusions provide policy support for China in accelerating the construction of a unified national market and fostering new quality productive forces based on local conditions.
2026 Vol. 43 (2): 32-47 [
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The Income-Boosting Effect of Agricultural Product Quality Improvement on Farmers from the Perspective of Industrial Agglomeration: Empirical Evidence from National Agricultural Product Quality and Safety Counties
GAO Peng, WAN Junyi
Taking the pilot policy of establishing National Agricultural Product Quality and Safety Counties as a quasi-natural experiment, this study employs panel data from 1,599 counties in China spanning 2013 to 2023 to systematically examine the impact and underlying mechanisms of agricultural product quality improvement on farmers’ income growth from the perspective of industrial agglomeration. The study shows that improving the quality of agricultural products has a significant and long-term effect on increasing farmers’ income, and this conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests. Mechanism analyses indicate that this income-enhancing effect operates mainly through agricultural value chain extension, rural employment expansion, and improvements in agricultural labor productivity. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the income-enhancing effects of agricultural product quality improvement are significantly more pronounced in regions with higher levels of innovation capacity, educational development, transportation infrastructure, and e-commerce penetration. Furthermore, the effects on income distribution exhibit significant heterogeneity, manifesting as a narrowing of the urban-rural income gap accompanied by a widening of intra-rural income disparity. These conclusions have confirmed that enhancing agricultural product quality effectively increases farmers’ income. This provides a policy basis for improvement of the agricultural quality supervision system and the expansion of farmer’sincome-generating channels.
2026 Vol. 43 (2): 48-61 [
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Study on the Impact of Digital Technology Application on the Choice of Green Production Behaviors of Family Farms: An Empirical Analysis Based on Survey Data from Henan Province
ZHANG Jianjie
Based on a micro-survey of family farms in Henan Province, this study analyzes how digital technology adoption, in its multiple dimensions, affects green production behavior and the mechanisms involved. The results show that digital technology application and its three dimensions (digital identity authentication, digital channel selection and digital process management) exert significant positive effects on family farms’ adoption of green production practices, with digital channel selection manifesting the most pronounced impact. However, when green cognition is integrated into the mechanism analysis, digital channel selection demonstrates a weaker contribution relative to digital identity authentication and digital process management. The heterogeneity analysis indicates that, in general, the participation of family farms in cooperatives has strengthened the positive effect of digital technology application on the choice of green production behaviors. However, the impact at different dimensions failed to pass the test. For family farms that have been certified as “three products and one standard”, the promotion effect of digital identity authentication on their green production behavior choices is more significant than that of un-certified ones. However, there is no significant difference in the effects of digital channel selection and digital process management. Compared with economic crop family farms, the promotion effects of digital identity authentication and digital process management on the green production behavior choices of grain crop family farms are more obvious. The research conclusions hold significant theoretical and practical value for exploring a “digital-driven green” development pathway for family farms.
2026 Vol. 43 (2): 62-74 [
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Public Data Openness and Local Government’s “Stabilizing Foreign Investment”
LI Hongbing, SHEN Mengyuan, SUN Litang
Taking 285 prefecture-level and higher cities in China from 2006 to 2022 as research subjects, this study leverages the quasi-natural experiment of the launch of public data openness platforms at the prefecture level. Using a difference-in-differences model, it empirically analyzes the impact effect and underlying mechanisms of public data openness on local governments’ ability to “stabilize foreign investment.” The results show that the openness of public data has effectively increased the scale of foreign investment inflows and enhanced the ability of each city to attract foreign capital. This conclusion remains valid even after controlling for endogeneity and undergoing multiple robustness tests. The Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the aforementioned effect is more pronounced in regions with strong manufacturing sectors and favorable business environments. Mechanism analysis reveals that public data openness optimizes the regional business environment by reducing government intervention, facilitating fair competition and enhancing governance capacity, thereby enhancing the region’ s attractiveness to foreign investment. Further analysis demonstrates that public data openness exerts a stronger attraction for investments originating from countries with more developed digital economies. Furthermore, it significantly reduces the relative scale of foreign divestment and enhances market concentration among foreign-invested enterprises. The findings offer new policy insights and decision-making references for local governments in their efforts to “stabilize foreign investment” .
2026 Vol. 43 (2): 75-90 [
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Can the Pilot Policies for Innovative Development of Service Trade Improve the Green Total Factor Productivity?
SHAO Wei, WEI Saite
Based on city-level panel data from 2011—2023, this study applies a staggered DID model to systematically assess the impact path and mechanism of pilot policies for innovative development of service trade on GTFP. The results show that the pilot policies for the innovative development of service trade have a significant promoting effect on the GTFP of cities. This conclusion remains valid after undergoing a series of robustness tests. The mechanism of action indicates that the upgrading of green innovation capabilities and the optimization of resource allocation efficiency are important paths for promoting the growth of green total factor productivity. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the policy promoting the innovative development of service trade has a more significant positive effect on green total factor productivity in regions with a weaker foundation in the service industry, a larger urban scale and stricter environmental regulations. This study provides empirical evidence and policy insights for achieving China’s goal of pursuing a path that delivers both economic growth and environmental improvement.
2026 Vol. 43 (2): 91-104 [
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External Demand, Supply Chain Spillovers and Upstream Firms’ Markups
WEN Dongwei, TANG Yuchen
Based on micro-level data constructed from the China Customs Database, the CSMAR Database and the CEPII-BACI Database at the supplier-customer-year level, this study examines the direction of impact and the mechanisms through which external demand influences the markup rates of upstream supplier firms via supply chain spillovers. The study shows that external demand shocks transmitted downstream exert a significant inhibitory effect on the markup rates of upstream supplier firms. The mechanism analysis indicates that external demand shocks generate market size effects and competitive effects. Among them, the competitive effect plays a dominant role. It weakens the pricing power of upstream supplier enterprises and reduces their markup rates. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that downstream-transmitted external demand has a notably more significant negative impact on the markup rates of supplier firms characterized by high upstream customer concentration, labor-intensive operations, small to medium scale, non-high productivity and those positioned upstream in the industrial chain. This study not only provides a new perspective for understanding the impact of external circulation on domestic circulation under the dual-circulation framework, but also offers empirical evidence for assessing the spillover effects of external demand shocks within supply chain networks, as well as valuable references for domestic enterprises to cope with external demand fluctuations and achieve high-quality development.
2026 Vol. 43 (2): 105-116 [
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Smart City Construction and Enterprise ESG Performance: Empirical Evaluation Based on Double Machine Learning
WU Ting, ZHOU Yunbo
Based on the micro-level enterprise data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2023, this paper employs a double machine learning model to identify the impact effect and transmission mechanism of smart city construction on the ESG performance of enterprises. The results show that the pilot policies for smart cities have a significant promoting effect on the ESG performance of enterprises, and this conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests. The pilot policies for smart cities enhance the ESG performance of enterprises through three channels: reducing information asymmetry for enterprises, boosting green technological innovation of enterprises and alleviating the financing constraints of enterprises. Under the background of the pilot policies for smart cities, the ESG performance of non-state-owned enterprises, non-heavy-polluting enterprises and enterprises in resource-based cities has improved more significantly. The findings provide theoretical insights into the intrinsic connection between smart city strategies and corporate sustainable development, offering guidance for enterprises to achieve high-quality development through the construction of smart cities.
2026 Vol. 43 (2): 117-130 [
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The Spatial Optimization Effect of Urban Areas Resulting from the Expansion of Local Government Special Debt
HAN Ning, LIU Peixian
Based on the panel data of 286 prefecture-level cities from 2015 to 2023, this study examines the impact of local government’s expansion of special debts on the urban spatial structure. The study shows that the expansion of local government special bonds can effectively optimize the urban spatial structure and promote the balanced polycentric development of cities. Mechanism analysis indicates that the expansion of the scale of special bonds optimizes the urban spatial structure through two pathways: improving urban infrastructure construction and advancing the upgrading of urban industrial structure. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the spatial structure optimization effect of special debt expansion is more pronounced in cities closer to provincial capitals, those under lower fiscal pressure, cities located within urban clusters, non-central cities, smaller cities and cities with more abundant resources. Further analysis suggests that the allocation of special debt limits also has a significant effect on optimizing the urban spatial structure. Moreover, the expansion of the special debt scale has significantly promoted the multi-center balanced development of cities with a larger allocation of debt limits. The conclusions contribute to a deeper comprehension of the role played by fiscal policy instruments, such as local government special bonds and in optimizing urban spatial structure. The results hold important implications for leveraging proactive fiscal policy tools, facilitating new-type urbanization, and fostering regionally coordinated development.
2026 Vol. 43 (2): 131-144 [
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Does Banking Competition Facilitate the Development of New Quality Productive Forces?
HE Weiwei, ZHANG Yabin
Based on the panel data of 284 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2011 to 2021, this study explores the effect of banking competition on the development of new quality productive forces. The results show that competition in the banking sector fosters the development of new quality productive forces, and this conclusion remains robust. The promoting effect of banking competition on new quality productive forces is stronger in eastern regions, periods of economic prosperity and in highly marketized areas, compared to those in central and western regions, economic contraction periods and low marketization areas. The mechanism test indicates that competition in the banking sector has promoted new quality productive forces by optimizing the allocation of capital factors, increasing credit supply and stimulating venture capital, etc. Further analysis demonstrates that improving factor endowments amplifies the promoting effect of banking competition on new quality productive forces. An increase in the market share of the five major commercial banks weakens this effect, while an increase in the market share of joint-stock banks and city commercial banks strengthens it. Moreover, relaxing financial regulation can also amplify the role of banking competition in promoting new quality productive forces.
2026 Vol. 43 (2): 145-160 [
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