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Economic Survey

	2022 Vol.39 Issue.1 Published 2022-01-10

	3	Urban Sprawl, Quality of Urban Innovation and Haze Pollution
		RAN Qiying, WANG Jianlong, YANG Xiaodong
		As one of the negative external products of urbanization and industrialization, haze pollution is undoubtedly affected by urban sprawl. At the same time, improving the quality of urban innovation and reducing haze pollution is a proper part of implementing the new development concept, and urban sprawl has become an essential factor affecting high-quality urban development. Therefore, based on urban panel data of 269 prefecture-level cities in China from 2004-2018, this paper uses a dynamic spatial Durbin model to examine the impact of urban sprawl and innovation quality on haze pollution. The results show that haze pollution has the effect of time stickiness and spatial mobility, and urban sprawl significantly promotes haze pollution, while urban innovation quality has a suppressive impact on haze pollution. Meanwhile, the interaction between urban sprawl and innovation quality substantially promotes haze pollution, indicating that urban sprawl weakens the haze reduction effect of innovation quality. Further study finds that local urban sprawl enabled haze pollution in neighboring areas, and local innovation quality significantly impacted haze pollution in adjacent areas.
		2022 Vol. 39 (1): 3-12 [Abstract] ( 705 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 605KB] ( 1260 )

	13	Study on the Spatial Differentiation and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in the Yellow River Basin
		GAO Xincai, HAN Xue
		From the perspective of municipal (prefecture) administrative divisions, this paper analyzes the spatial differences of carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin from 2008 to 2017, and uses the spatial Dubin model to study the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin. The results show that there is a strong spatial correlation of carbon emissions among cities (prefectures) in the Yellow River Basin, and the spatial agglomeration shows an increasing trend. And the distribution of carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin has a strong transfer inertia, most regions have not undergone significant temporal and spatial transitions, and the spatial distribution of carbon emissions is highly cohesive. It is also found that the intensity of carbon emissions is affected by a variety of factors, such as regional economic growth level, energy structure, industrial structure, and technological level and so on. This conclusion is of great significance for the scientific formulation and implementation of carbon emission reduction strategies in the municipal (prefecture) level administrative regions of the Yellow River Basin.
		2022 Vol. 39 (1): 13-23 [Abstract] ( 900 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1132KB] ( 1398 )

	24	Study on the Impact of Smart City Construction on Business Environment
		YU Yang, XIA Defeng
		On the premise of expounding the theory of the impact mechanism of smart cities on the business environment and based on the panel data of 284 prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2018, this paper takes the pilot policy of smart city launched in 2013 as a quasi-natural experiment, and uses the double difference modal to estimate the impact of smart city construction on regional business environment. The result shows that the smart city construction has significantly improved the regional business environment. Specifically, the smart city construction is mainly to further improve the business environment by improving the level of regional knowledge spillover, promoting urban intensive development and adjusting the industrial structure. In terms of urban heterogeneity, the improvement effect of smart city construction on the business environment in the central and western regions of China is not significant, and this improvement effect occurs only in the eastern and northeastern regions. In small and medium-sized cities that are not municipalities directly under the central government or provincial capitals, the higher the level of knowledge spillover, the stronger the effect of smart city construction on improving the business environment, but in municipalities directly under the central government and provincial capitals, the moderating effect of knowledge spillover is no longer significant. Therefore, in the next process of promoting the construction of smart cities, it is necessary for us to strengthen the level of urban knowledge stock, promote intensive urban development, optimize the industrial structure and increase attention to urban differences.
		2022 Vol. 39 (1): 24-35 [Abstract] ( 674 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1440KB] ( 1555 )

	36	Minimum Quality Standard, Number of Brand Members and Value of Regional Public Brand of Agricultural Products
		DONG Yinguo, QIAN Weiwen
		Improving the value of regional public brand of agricultural products is an important way to improve the competitiveness of agricultural products and achieve revitalization and high-quality development of agriculture. Based on the theoretical analysis of the relationship among the minimum quality standard, the number of brand members and the value of regional public brand of agricultural products, this paper selects panel data of China agricultural regional brand and uses a simultaneous equation model to conduct an empirical test on the effect of minimum quality standard and the number of brand members on the value of regional public brand of agricultural products, and the threshold regression model is further applied to test the threshold features of minimum quality standard on the value of regional public brands. The results are as follows: Firstly, the relationship between the minimum quality standard and the number of brand members is a positive U-shaped curve. With the improvement of the minimum quality standard, the number of brand members decreases at first by the cost effect, and then increases by the reputation effect. Secondly, the relationship between the number of brand members and the value of regional public brand of agricultural products presents an inverted U-shaped curve, that is, with the increase of the number of brand members, the regional public brand value of agricultural products increases at first and then decreases, which changes from agglomeration effect to crowding effect. Finally, there is a double threshold for the impact of minimum quality standards on the value of regional public brand of agricultural products. As the minimum quality standard changes from low to high, it will have a suppressing and then promoting effect on the value of regional public brands of agricultural products.
		2022 Vol. 39 (1): 36-46 [Abstract] ( 654 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1567KB] ( 1445 )

	47	Agricultural Subsidies and Farmers’ Purchase of Agricultural Machinery Services: Theoretical Clues and Empirical Evidence
		JI Xing, ZHANG Hongxiao
		The socialized service of agricultural machinery is an important way for small farmers to organically connect with modern agricultural production, and is of profound significance for promoting rural revitalization. Based on the theoretical analysis of the impact of agricultural subsidies on farmers’ purchase of agricultural machinery services, this paper uses the third term unbalanced panel data of CLDS2014-2018, panel ordered Logit random effect model, ERM model and intermediary effect model to prove that agricultural subsidies can significantly promote farmers’ purchase of agricultural machinery services. And after different robustness tests and instrumental variable methods, this conclusion is still supported. Heterogeneity analysis shows that agricultural subsidies play a greater role in purchasing agricultural machinery services in small-scale, low-income and non-major grain producing areas. Further mechanism tests show that agricultural subsidies can not only significantly promote farmers to engage in agricultural production, but also enhance the availability of credit and be used for productive investment, expand the actual grain growing area and alleviate financial pressure. Thus, it can promote farmers to purchase agricultural machinery services. This study helps us to understand the internal mechanism between agricultural subsidies and the purchase of agricultural machinery services and provides inspiration for the government to improve agricultural subsidy policies in the process of promoting agricultural socialized services.
		2022 Vol. 39 (1): 47-58 [Abstract] ( 647 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1783KB] ( 1031 )

	59	Macro-prudential Policy and Income Inequality
		LI Qiaoming
		With the help of the OLG model, this paper obtains the theoretical mechanism of the impact of macro-prudential policies on income inequality, and then analyzes the impact of macro-prudential policies on equity based on the unbalanced panel data of 59 countries from 2000 to 2018. There are following empirical results: (1) There is a negative correlation between the housing loan value ratio (LTV) cap and the Gini coefficient, indicating that the macro-prudential policy of lowering the upper limit of LTV can widen the gap of residents’ income distribution, and the effect is more significant in emerging market countries. (2) When the upper limit of LTV is lower, lowering LTV cap further expands the level of income inequality. Conversely, when the value of LTV is higher, lowering LTV cap reduces the level of income inequality. And the policy effect of the macro-prudential tool exhibits heterogeneous characteristics. (3) After replacing the macro-prudential policy of lowering LTV cap with the policies of increasing the deposit reserve ratio, the empirical conclusion remains basically unchanged. The empirical results show high robustness under different income inequality variables, different dummy variables and different panel models. As for China is concerned, when formulating macro-prudential policies, the People’s Bank of China should consider the income redistribution of the policy, so as to ensure the effectiveness of the policy while taking into account the fairness of the policy.
		2022 Vol. 39 (1): 59-68 [Abstract] ( 689 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1269KB] ( 770 )

	69	China’s International Patent Application and Export Trade
		WANG Ye, ZHANG Tianshuo, QU Ruxiao
		Innovation-driven is an important engine for the high-quality development of export trade, and international patent application is an important reflection of a country’s level of innovation. Based on the patent application data of the 31 provinces of China in the United States Patent Office from 2009 to 2017 and the export trade data of 41 industries in each province, this paper empirically studies the impact of international patent applications on exports. The results show that: (1) Overseas patent applications promote the export of products to the market of the patent application country.With the increase in the number of overseas patents, the scope of protection and technical coverage of overseas patents have expanded, leading to a further increase in exports.(2) After a comprehensive evaluation of the patent value, it is found that the higher the patent value, the greater the export promotion effect. (3) Foreign patents in China and the degree of marketization have a moderating effect on the promotion of international patents. The more industries and regions with higher degree of marketization of foreign patents in China, the greater the export promotion effect of international patent applications.
		2022 Vol. 39 (1): 69-78 [Abstract] ( 851 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1352KB] ( 895 )

	79	The Influence of Technological Innovation on the Upgrading of Industrial Structure under Environmental Regulation:Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of Central Cities Along the Yangtze River
		SONG Deyong, BI Daojun
		Based on the panel data of the central cities along the Yangtze River from 2006 to 2018, and on the basis of comprehensively measuring the level of technological innovation, the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure, this paper focuses on the direct impact and specific path of technological innovation on the upgrading of industrial structure. And the threshold model is also used to analyze the impact of environmental regulation on the upgrading of industrial structure of technological innovation. The results show that technological innovation can effectively promote the rational development of industrial results, and there is a U-shaped curve relation with the advanced industrial structure. In different thresholds of technological innovation and environmental regulation, the effect of technological innovation on industrial structure upgrading is gradually changed from inhibition to promotion. And the Weaker environmental regulation intensity for technology import, the imitation innovation provides the possibility to help promote the rationalization of industrial structure effect of technology innovation. However, to realize the development of industrial structure, it is necessary to moderately improve the environmental standards, and at the same time to urge enterprises to strengthen independent innovation so as to enhance industrial competitiveness and break the constraints of resources and environment faced by industrial transformation and upgrading.
		2022 Vol. 39 (1): 79-87 [Abstract] ( 710 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1240KB] ( 1228 )

	88	Financial Structure and Manufacturing Industrial Growth: From the Perspective of Industrial Heterogeneity
		LI Zhan, WANG Shujuan, YE Shujun
		There is a certain internal relationship between the financial structure and the growth of the manufacturing industry. This paper mainly analyzes the mechanism of different financial structures on the growth of different industries from the perspective of industrial heterogeneity. Based on the data of more than 27 manufacturing industries in China from 2003 to 2017 and the three basic characteristics of industrial innovation, industrial risk and capital intensity, this paper constructs a panel data model to empirically test the impact of financial structure on industrial growth. The results show that, on the whole, the current bank-led financial structure in China has significantly promoted the growth of manufacturing industries. From the perspective of industrial heterogeneity, the development of the banking system can promote the growth of capital-intensive industries, while the stock market has a significant role in promoting the development of R&D-intensive and risk-based industries. In view of this, China should deepen the supply-side reform of the financial system at this stage and develop a financial structure system that matches the growth of manufacturing enterprises in a targeted manner.
		2022 Vol. 39 (1): 88-97 [Abstract] ( 603 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1256KB] ( 1635 )

	98	Analysts’ Forecast Revision and Capital Market Information Efficiency
		WU Hanzhang, LIU Weiqi
		Based on the phenomenon of “same rise and fall” of stock prices, this paper uses the data of China’s A-share listed companies from 2002 to 2018 to study the relationship between analysts’ forecast activities and capital market information efficiency from the perspective of analyst behavior dynamics. The study finds that analysts’ positive forecast revisions will significantly reduce the synchronicity of the company’s stock prices. And this effect is more obvious among star analysts, non-underwriter analysts and female analysts. After further studying the transmission path of analysts’ forecast revisions affecting stock price synchronization, it is found that analysts’ positive forecast revisions can decrease stock price synchronization by reducing their earnings forecast bias and forecast dispersion.The above results show that analysts’ earnings forecast revisions behavior belongs to “self-renewal”, which can improve the information efficiency of capital market.
		2022 Vol. 39 (1): 98-107 [Abstract] ( 593 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1255KB] ( 846 )

	108	“The Belt and Road” Initiative, Financial Flexibility and Enterprise Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivity
		CAO Yunchun, SUN Jian
		Based on the data of China’s listed companies from 2008 to 2019, this paper regards “the Belt and Road” Initiative as a quasi-natural experiment and uses the double difference method ( DID ) to investigate the impact of “the Belt and Road” Initiative on the investment-cash flow sensitivity of enterprises. The result shows that “the Belt and Road” Initiative can significantly reduce the investment-cash flow sensitivity of the supported firms. And this conclusion remains robust after adopting the placebo test and robustness test, and the degree of influence is related to the financial flexibility of the enterprise. Further study has found “the Belt and the Road” Initiative can correct over investment and alleviate the contradiction between clients and agents, which constitutes the external governance mechanism of enterprises with weak internal governance. The conclusion of this paper shows that “the Belt and the Road” initiative is an important variable to study financing constraints, financial flexibility and investment-cash flow sensitivity which has been ignored by the existing literature, so as to expand and enrich the research that institutional environment affects financial constraints.
		2022 Vol. 39 (1): 108-117 [Abstract] ( 673 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1269KB] ( 883 )

	118	Compensation Regulation and Earnings Persistence
		SHEN Yi, RUAN Qingsong
		Taking the compensation reform system as the research background and Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2018 as the research samples, this paper examines the impact of compensation regulation on corporate earnings persistence and its components. The results show that compensation regulation has a significant negative impact on the persistence of corporate earnings and its components. At the same time, when the nature of enterprise property rights is different, the negative relationship between them is also different. The impact of compensation regulation on earnings persistence of state-owned enterprises is more significant than that of non-state-owned enterprises, and the impact on earnings persistence of central state-owned enterprises is also more significant than that of local state-owned enterprises. Further study indicates that managerial power enhances the negative relationship between compensation regulation and earnings persistence. The conclusions not only expand the research on the impact of compensation regulation on the long-term development of enterprises, but also provide empirical evidence for promoting compensation system reform and improving the implementation of compensation regulation.
		2022 Vol. 39 (1): 118-126 [Abstract] ( 728 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1241KB] ( 795 )

	127	Digital Inclusive Finance, Income Levels and Household Debt
		CHEN Chen, FANG Fang, ZHANG Le
		With the third technological revolution based on the Internet, the rapid development of digital inclusive finance has had a great impact on household economic behavior. Based on the matching data of China Digital Inclusive Financial Development Index and China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this paper discusses the changes of household debt debt at different income levels under the digital inclusive finance. The empirical results show that the development of digital inclusive finance has significantly increased the level of household debt and household debt leverage. Digital inclusive finance promotes the increase of household debt scale and debt leverage through the three mechanisms of liquidity constraints, irrational spending, and convenient transactions. The increase of debt leverage of digital inclusive finance is different among households with different income levels, and the increase of debt leverage of low-income households is more obvious than that of high-income households. Therefore, in the face of endless financial innovation, it is of great significance for the government and relevant departments to prevent financial risks and guide the healthy and orderly development of digital inclusive finance.
		2022 Vol. 39 (1): 127-137 [Abstract] ( 889 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1259KB] ( 2770 )

	138	Digital Inclusive Finance, Resident Life Stress and Happiness
		QIAN Xuesong, YUAN Zhengrong
		Based on the China General Social Survey (CGSS) data, this paper examines the impact of digital inclusive finance on residents’ subjective well-being and explores its mechanism of action. The empirical results show that the development of digital inclusive finance significantly enhances residents’ happiness, in which the digital inclusive finance coverage breadth index, usage depth index and the degree of digital support services all have a relatively significant positive impact on residents’ subjective well-being. These findings still hold significantly after a series of robustness tests. Further heterogeneous analysis shows that compared with high-income groups (central and eastern regions, urban areas, males, high education level), digital inclusive financial development plays a relatively greater role in improving the subjective well-being of low-and middle-income groups (western remote areas, rural areas, females, low education level). Digital inclusive finance can improve residents’ subjective well-being by alleviating the pressure of life (reflected in economic pressure and institutional exclusion pressure). Therefore,it is of great practical significance to enhance the well-being of residents, which will help the government to further improve the digital inclusive financial system.
		2022 Vol. 39 (1): 138-150 [Abstract] ( 987 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1284KB] ( 2522 )

	151	Indicator Measure and Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Local Financial Governance Capacity
		ZHAO Dezhao
		Based on the data of 31 provinces of China from 2009 to 2019, this paper studies the comprehensive characteristics, spatial and temporal pattern, spatial correlation, spatial clustering and hot regional evolution of government financial capacity. The empirical study shows that the governance capacity of all provinces in China has been greatly improved from 2009 to 2019, but the relative difference in the level of financial governance shows a trend of expansion. Moreover, the spatial clustering of the financial governance capacity of provinces and cities is not significant. Although there is no large range of high or low value clustering areas, there is still a small range of high clustering areas, and the spatial nearest neighbor effect appears gradually. From the perspective of spatial pattern, the distribution pattern of hot point area and sub-hot point area changes greatly. The hot spots and sub-hot areas are mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas and central China, in which the hot spots tend to evolve from south to north. Therefore, under the condition that the scale of local government debt is still high, the central government should pay full attention to the scientific measurement of local financial governance capacity, regional differences and the evolution characteristics of time and space pattern, and build a new pattern of local financial governance with financial coordination and regional balance.
		2022 Vol. 39 (1): 151-160 [Abstract] ( 666 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 2025KB] ( 901 )

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