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Economic Survey

	2020 Vol.37 Issue.5 Published 2020-09-10

	1	Local Government Competition, Environmental Regulation and Total Factor Productivity
		QIN Lingui, SHEN Tiyan
		In the stage of China’s economy turning to high-quality development, how to coordinate the relationship between local government competition, environmental regulation and the transformation of economic growth mode is crucial. Based on this, this paper selects the panel data of 29 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China from 2001 to 2017, measures local government competition from the perspectives of foreign direct investment, fiscal expenditure and taxation, and then through the use of systematic GMM estimation method explores the impact of local government competition and environmental regulation on total factor productivity. And the conclusion is that: (1) Local government competition is conducive to the promotion of total factor productivity. (2) Under the influence of environmental regulation, the promotion of local government competition to total factor productivity has been weakened. At the same time, from the perspective of the current intensity of environmental regulation, local government fiscal expenditure competition and tax competition are all conducive to the improvement of total factor productivity, while foreign direct investment competition is not conducive to the improvement of total factor productivity. (3) Under the background of further investigation of different levels of local government competition, the impact of local government competition and environmental regulation on total factor productivity is regionally heterogeneous.
		2020 Vol. 37 (5): 1-8 [Abstract] ( 958 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1256KB] ( 1158 )

	9	Does Housing Inequality Increase the Impact of Urban Household Income Difference on Consumption Difference?
		ZHAO Wei, GENG Yong
		Consumption difference can more truly reflect the difference of family welfare level. To clarify how housing inequality affects the relationship between income difference and consumption difference theoretically and empirically can provide a theoretical basis for better improving residents’ welfare. Therefore, this paper constructs a mathematical model to enlarge the impact of income difference on consumption difference, and uses the data of Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) to conduct empirical test. We find that the impact of income difference on consumption difference increases by 0.037% and 0.092% respectively for each unit of housing number difference and housing market value difference, and this amplification effect is mainly through two kinds of mechanisms: liquidity constraint and precautionary saving. To be specific, the housing inequality aggravates the income difference and further worsens the consumption difference through rent income and mortgage. The study suggests that the government should further improve the mechanism of income distribution, strengthen housing security, crack down on housing speculation, narrow housing inequality, block the channels of restraining residents’ consumption, and effectively improve social welfare.
		2020 Vol. 37 (5): 9-18 [Abstract] ( 815 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1430KB] ( 1446 )

	19	The Empirical Study on the Effect of Social Network andHousehold Debt on Income Gap
		WANG Shuhua, HU Zhongli
		Basing on the data of CFPS in 2016,the paper makes an empirical study on social network, household debt and income gap by using the methods of Probit and Tobit. The results show that, firstly, social network has a positive effect on household debt; secondly, the heterogeneity of social network leads to the social network’s effect on household debt. Specifically, the influence of neighbors on household is greater than that of relatives and workmates in horizontal social network. The influence of communities on household is greater than that of government and personal social status in vertical social networks. Thirdly, horizontal network in rural areas has a greater impact on household debt level, while vertical network in urban households has a greater impact on household debt level. Finally, rising household debt will lead to widening income disparities, and social networks will magnify the impact.
		2020 Vol. 37 (5): 19-25 [Abstract] ( 795 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1224KB] ( 1010 )

	26	Research on Time and Space Evolution and Rejuvenation Path of Different Types of Tourism Specialized Villages——A Study Based on the Data of Tourism Specialized Villages in Henan Province
		WANG Wei, QIAO Jiajun, MA Yuling, HAN Dong
		Tourism specialized village is one of the important paths for rural revitalization. Scientific understanding of the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of different types of tourism specialized villages can provide a basis for revitalizing the path from the perspective of type subdivision. Taking the tourism specialized village of Henan Province as an example, this paper studies the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of different types of tourism specialized villages. The results show that, firstly, Henan tourism specialized villages are divided into traffic location advantage type, market location advantage type, resource location advantage type and economic location advantage type. Secondly, the number of different types of tourism specialized villages varies with time, and the regional distribution of various types of tourism specialized villages is obviously different. Finally, four types of tourism specialized villages are greatly influenced by terrain, rivers, roads and central towns, and exhibit different evolution characteristics at different distances. On this basis, the paper discusses the different types and regions to realize the rural revitalization path and countermeasures, in order to provide a theoretical reference for improving the development of tourism specialized villages in Henan Province and provide a typical reference for the deepening of rural revitalization research in the academic circle.
		2020 Vol. 37 (5): 26-36 [Abstract] ( 826 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 5453KB] ( 1220 )

	37	The Impact of Education on Intergenerational Occupational Mobility in Rural China
		WANG Weidong, BAI Yunli, LUO Renfu, ZHANG Linxiu
		This paper assesses the impact of education on intergenerational occupational mobility within rural China by using a nationally representative sample. The empirical results suggest four crucial relationships. Firstly, education promotes upward mobility among rural laborers and reduces both downward mobility and occupational inheritance. Secondly, education becomes less important for promoting upward mobility over time. Thirdly, increasing years of schooling at any educational level will promote the upward intergenerational occupational mobility and hinder both downward mobility and occupational inheritance. Finally, higher education consistently plays the most vital role in promoting upward mobility regardless of the birth cohorts. However, the influence of high school on upward mobility among individuals born after 1985 is less than that who were born before 1985. It is necessary to increase investment in rural education, improve the accessibility of education and the quality of education for rural residents, and increase the opportunities for rural children to enter tertiary education institutions.
		2020 Vol. 37 (5): 37-44 [Abstract] ( 755 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1255KB] ( 1107 )

	45	Social Network, Transaction Cost and Farmers’ Market Participation Behavior
		CHEN Hongwei, MU Yueying
		Based on the survey data of five provinces of Bohai rim in 2017, this paper uses triple-hurdle sample selection model to analyze the impact of social network on farmers’ market participation behavior and its mechanism. The results show that information searching cost, negotiation cost and execution cost in transaction cost significantly hinder farmers’ market participation behavior. Social network has significant positive impact on farmers’ decision-making of market participation, decision-making of field markets participation and participation degree. The mechanism is that social network reduces the information searching cost, negotiation cost and execution cost, lowers the threshold of farmers’ market transactions, and promotes farmers’ market participation behavior. Higher education level, longer planting years and participation in cooperatives are helpful to market participation decision-making. Furthermore, higher education level, larger planting scale and more labors will choose foreign markets and increase market participation. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the social network driving role of large professional households with sales experience, enhance the degree of farmers’ organization, timely publish the price information of agricultural products, and standardize the agricultural product market to reduce transaction costs.
		2020 Vol. 37 (5): 45-53 [Abstract] ( 903 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1334KB] ( 1807 )

	54	Social Capital, Public Goods Supply and Rural Poverty Reduction——An Empirical Analysis Based on Micro-Survey Data in Henan Province
		PENG Wenhui, WANG Dong
		Using the micro-survey data of farming households and also applying a non-linear regression model can examine the relationship among social capital, supply of public goods and the rural poverty reduction. The research shows that the social capital and the public goods supply can dramatically reduce the rural poverty, however, the effect of poverty reduction of the social capital of different farmers in different regions has a certain difference. Among them, the social network of the peasant household in the state-poor county has a strong resource-trapping effect, whereas social trust for farmers’ village in non-state-poor counties exerts a more systematic and perfect influence, and both contribute to the poverty reduction to some extent. Further studies have found that the social trust and farmers’ willingness to participate in the supply of public goods play a positive role in promoting poverty reduction in the rural areas. In order to better play the role of social capital in rural poverty reduction, improving the effective supply of public goods, in particular, enhancing rural social trust is one of its important means.
		2020 Vol. 37 (5): 54-62 [Abstract] ( 699 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1254KB] ( 1162 )

	63	Industrial Globalization, R&D Investment and Firm Performance
		LIU Weitao, YOU Jihong, ZOU Xiaohua
		With the help of the trend of industrial globalization, increasing R&D investment level is the best solution for enterprises to realize “innovation leading”, crack the locking effect and achieve high-quality development. This paper takes 2161 listed manufacturing enterprises in Shenzhen and Shanghai Stock Exchange from 2010 to 2018 as research samples to investigate the impact of industrial globalization on the performance of listed manufacturing enterprises in China and its moderating effect on innovation investment. The results show that: (1) the deepening of industrial globalization is conducive to the improvement of the financial performance of enterprises, but it will significantly reduce the value performance of enterprises; (2) Industrial globalization has significant positive moderating effect on the impact of R&D investment on enterprise performance; (3) The moderating effect of industrial globalization on R&D investment and enterprise performance is different between industries and the nature of equity. Specifically, the difference in demand elasticity between industries is more reflected in the level of enterprise financial performance, and the difference in technical level between industries is more reflected in the level of enterprise market value performance. In addition, non-state-owned enterprises are more likely to use industrial globalization to improve their own performance.
		2020 Vol. 37 (5): 63-71 [Abstract] ( 767 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1252KB] ( 1032 )

	72	Does Producer Services Agglomeration Promote the Export Upgrading of China’s High-tech Industries?
		ZHANG Yingying, BAI Dongbei, GAO Yu
		The continuous improvement of export competitiveness of high-tech industries is the core link to promote the rise of the manufacturing value chain, and is also the key to shape the country’s economic quality advantages. Based on the provincial panel data from 2013 to 2016 of China’s high-tech industries,this paper analyzes the impact and its transmission mechanism of producer services agglomeration on high-tech industries export upgrading. The results show that producer services agglomeration significantly raises high-tech industries’ export technological sophistication and thus promotes the export upgrading of high-tech industries.Heterogeneity analysis shows that, the agglomeration of high-end producer services and the agglomeration of producer services in the eastern coastal areas have played a more prominent role in?promoting the export upgrading of high-tech industries. Further mechanism test finds that producer services agglomeration promotes the export upgrading of high-tech industries mainly through the R&D incentives effect, technology diffusion effect and Human capital effect. In addition, with the introduction of the regional contractual environmental index, the improvement of contract environment can enhance the promotion effect of producer services agglomeration on the export upgrading of high-tech industries.
		2020 Vol. 37 (5): 72-80 [Abstract] ( 702 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1259KB] ( 1111 )

	81	Agglomeration of Heterogeneous Human Capital and Upgrading of Industrial Structure——Based on the Perspective of Knowledge Spillover Matching
		JIANG Sanliang, ZHAO Mengchan, CHENG Yongsheng
		Coordinated development is an important goal in China’s transition, and the distribution of human capital and knowledge resources has an eastern preference. Human capital is divided into primary and intermediate human capital and advanced human capital. We select panel data of China’s 30 provinces and cities from 2006 to 2017, and use the spatial Dubin model to analyze how China’s unbalanced human capital agglomeration guides knowledge spillovers to promote coordinated transformation between regions. The results show : (1) The concentration of junior and intermediate human capital and high-level human capital have a significant role in promoting the upgrading of the regional industrial structure, and knowledge stock and quality have opposite effects on the upgrading of the industrial structure. (2) There is a matching difference between the accumulation of heterogeneous human capital and the knowledge effect. Under the circular causal chain, the knowledge effect brought by heterogeneous human capital does not match the knowledge effect required for industrial structure upgrade. (3) From the perspective of labor market segmentation, some regions have a “lock-in effect” on the accumulation of advanced human capital, and the channel for knowledge quality spillovers to promote the upgrading of the industrial structure is not smooth.
		2020 Vol. 37 (5): 81-89 [Abstract] ( 845 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1257KB] ( 1496 )

	90	The Momentum of TFP Growth in China’s Service Industry:Technical Effect or Structure Effect?
		CAO Yuequn, YANG Yuling, WEI Xiqian
		Based on productive capital stock data, the paper decomposes the service industry TFP growth into the technical effect in the industry and the structural effect between the industries by reconstructing the TFP growth decomposition model, so as to explore the power source of TFP growth in service industry. The results show that during the period 1985-2016, the overall growth quality of China’s service industry was high. The annual growth rate of capital investment in service industry is 13.24%, the technical effect is gradually replacing the structural effect and becoming the main driving force for TFP growth. From the perspective of sub-sectors, in addition to the relatively high capital investment in real estate and water conservancy industries, other industries have made positive contributions to the growth of service industry TFP, with the “financial and insurance” industry contributing the most. The conclusions show that, further improving the technical level of the service industry and promoting the rational allocation of factor resources in the market is the fundamental way to promote the coordinated development of China’s service industry scale and quality.
		2020 Vol. 37 (5): 90-98 [Abstract] ( 740 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1274KB] ( 1236 )

	99	Does Industrial Policy Increase Acquired Goodwill?
		ZHAO Yanfeng, TANG Xiangxi
		Acquired goodwill is one of the currently significant financial risks in our country, and the industrial policy is an important measure for the government to allocate resources. Current research does not give enough attention to how industrial policy affect acquired goodwill. This paper explores the relationship to guide industrial policy-making and enterprise takeover. Based on the encouraged industry development planning in “Five-Year Plan” in China, we collect the goodwill data of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2011 to 2018, using Logit model and DID model to test the impact of industrial policy on the acquired goodwill. The results show that the added acquired goodwill in the encouraged industry will increase significantly; and this impact varies according to the nature of property rights and marketization. Compared with private enterprises and regions with high marketization, the impact of industrial policies on the acquired goodwill is more significant in state-owned enterprises and low marketization areas.Further research indicates that the this impact is also influenced by the enterprises’ characteristics. The positive impact is more significant in the asset-light and high-market-attention samples.The mechanism tests show that the industrial policy can promote the goodwill of enterprises through increasing bank credit
		2020 Vol. 37 (5): 99-106 [Abstract] ( 807 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1473KB] ( 935 )

	107	The Authority of Ultimate Controlling Shareholders and Corporate Value: The Comparative Analysis of Listed State-owned Enterprises and Family Companies
		LI Wenwen, ZHANG Shixing, WAN Lin
		Based on the background of the increasingly fierce debate about whether state-owned enterprises should advance or retreat, this paper chooses representative listed state-owned enterprises and family companies as the research sample to study the influence of ultimate controlling shareholders’ authority on corporate value. By investigating the correlation between the authority of ultimate controlling shareholders and the financial and market performance of listed companies, this paper finds that there is a rise-fall curvilinear relationship between the authority of ultimate controlling shareholders and the value of listed companies. Further research shows that company size has a certain moderating effect on the authority of ultimate controlling shareholders, and the proper combination of the authority of shareholders status and management can make ultimate controlling shareholders play a greater role. On the other hand, the authority of ultimate controlling shareholders is rising steadily in the listed state-owned enterprises, and gradually weakening in the listed family companies.
		2020 Vol. 37 (5): 107-115 [Abstract] ( 510 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1563KB] ( 832 )

	116	A Research on the Social Responsibility and Protective Umbrella and Scapegoat Effect of Top Management Turnover
		XU Liping, XU Xiansu, LIU Ning
		Taking the A-shares listed companies that disclosed the social responsibility report in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges during 2010-2017 as examples, the paper studies the relationship between the corporate social responsibility (CSR),corporate social irresponsibility(CSI) and different types of top management turnover (TMT). The results show that:(1) CSR and CSI have no impact on the change of chairman. (2) CSR reduces the possibility of change of chief executive officer (CEO), chief financial officer (CFO) and secretary of the board, indicating that CSR has a protective umbrella effect on senior management positions. (3) CSI has increased the possibility of changes of the CFO and the secretary of the board, but has no effect on the change of CEO. This abnormal phenomenon may have the scapegoat effect that weak executives are the scapegoat for strong ones. Further research finds that CSI increased the possibility of CEO being in office but CFO out of office and CEO unchanged but secretary of the board change, thus verifying the scapegoat” effect, which can be strengthened by the duality and shareholding ratio.
		2020 Vol. 37 (5): 116-123 [Abstract] ( 941 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1257KB] ( 1128 )

	124	Female Executives, R&D Intensity and Decision-Making Context
		LUN Rui
		To explore the R&D decision style and environmental dependence of female executives in Chinese listed companies, we construct a regulating effect model of favorable decision-making situation on the relationship between the proportion of female executives and corporate R&D intensity. We measure the favorable degree of the decision-making situation based on the technical capability basis and management experience. We find that the company’s technical capability foundation will positively regulate the relationship between the proportion of female executives and the intensity of R&D investment. Management experience helps to enhance the positive regulating effect of the technical ability foundation on the main effect, that is, the influence of the proportion of female executives on the R&D intensity. The positive change of situation can improve the level of risk taking of female executives, which indicates that female decision-makers can judge the situation and respond to opportunities. They hold a risk attitude that is robust but not rash. They are reliable rather than conservative. This study explores a new way to explain the risk attitudes of female executives from the perspective of their ability to interact with decision-making situations. The above conclusions will further enrich the contingency theory of leadership.
		2020 Vol. 37 (5): 124-132 [Abstract] ( 689 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1417KB] ( 846 )

	133	The Impact of the Exploitation Innovation on the Construction of High Performance Work System
		CUI Ying
		In order to research exploitative innovation’s influence on the building of high performance work system, on the basis of the firsthand data of several high-tech enterprises in Henan and other first cities, this paper uses exploitative innovations as the independent variable, high performance work systems as the dependent variable, through a structural equation model (SEM) to study their relationship between the exploitative innovation and high performance work systems, and research innovation performance in the presence of intermediary effect between them. The results show that exploitative innovation has positive influence on high performance work system (HPWS). Exploitative innovation has a positive impact on innovation performance; Innovation performance has positive influence on high performance new work system. There is a partial mediating effect between exploitative innovation and high performance new work system. The exploitative innovation has a positive impact on the four dimensions of high performance work system: organizational performance, performance-based compensation, employee satisfaction, and information sharing.
		2020 Vol. 37 (5): 133-140 [Abstract] ( 759 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1321KB] ( 1161 )

	141	Does Banking Industry Competition Affect Enterprises “Maturity Mismatch”?——Evidence From A-Share Listed Companies
		HONG Jinming, SANG Qianlan, LONG Haihong
		In recent years, China’s banking reform has intensified the competition in the banking industry, effectively alleviated the problem of difficult and expensive financing for enterprises, and affected the financial behavior of enterprises’ “maturity mismatch”. Taking A-share listed companies as the research samples, the paper conducts empirical tests and finds that the more competition in the banking industry, the more serious the enterprises’ “maturity mismatch” is, and the conclusion is unchanged after the robustness test. It is found that banking industry competition deepens the long-term investment intention, reduces the debt financing cost and shortens the debt maturity structure, which provides complementary evidence for the relationship between banking industry competition and “maturity mismatch”. Based on the extensive research banks-enterprises relationship and the nature of property rights, it is found that for non-state-owned enterprises and non-bank-firm relationship, competition in the banking industry is more likely to intensify the enterprises’ “maturity mismatch”. This study not only enriches the research fields of banking competition and financial behavior of enterprises, but also provides important empirical evidence for broadening long-term financing channels, properly adopting conservative financial strategies and establishing fair credit market.
		2020 Vol. 37 (5): 141-150 [Abstract] ( 911 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1263KB] ( 1443 )

	151	Banking Competition and Excessive Commercial Credit Supply
		BAI Jun, QIU Shanyun, LIU Yuanyuan
		Based on the background of the deregulation policy of China’s banking market access in different places,using the data of listed companies from 2003 to 2017, this paper empirically examines the impact of banking competition on the supply of excess commercial credit of enterprises and its action path. The results show that, on the whole, the competition of banking industry has a positive effect on the excess commercial credit of enterprises. The channel test shows that competition in banking industry significantly alleviates the financing constraint level of enterprises, improves the supply capacity of enterprises, and promotes the supply of excess commercial credit for enterprises. Further investigation of the regulatory effect of supply intention shows that the positive effect of banking competition on the supply of excess commercial credit is more obvious in small and medium-sized private enterprises and enterprises with low market position. In addition, from the perspective of external market environment, the fiercer the competition in the industry and the higher the marketization level of the enterprise, the more obvious the positive effect of banking competition on the supply of excess commercial credit. This paper provides more direct empirical evidence for what factors affect the excess commercial credit supply capacity of enterprises, and has important significance for how financial liberalization reform affects the strategic decision-making of micro enterprises.
		2020 Vol. 37 (5): 151-160 [Abstract] ( 712 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1314KB] ( 1705 )

	161	Corporate Governance, Board Chairman Tenure and Prudence of Bank
		YANG Bo
		Using the data of 109 Chinese commercial banks from 2013 to 2017, this paper quantitatively analyzes the levels of potential credit risk of banks, investigates the gap compared to the information issued by banks, to know how prudentially the banks operate, and empirically research the impact of corporate governance factors and the tenure of the board chairman on the prudence of bank. We find that the relationship between the size of board and the prudent level of bank is “U effect”, and the tenure of the board chairman has a significant impact on the prudent level of the bank. The results show that, because of the conflicting of multiple interests, and the “free riders” in boards, banks will hide credit risk and loss rather than arise the non-performing loan, so that the problem loans cannot be handled promptly. This paper provides new ideas for enhancing corporate governance of Chinese banks, and improving the risk management system of banks.
		2020 Vol. 37 (5): 161-168 [Abstract] ( 705 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1239KB] ( 671 )

	169	Research on the Impact of Elevator Liability Insurance on Elevator Public Safety Management ——An Empirical Study Based on The Difference-in-Differences Model
		DING Rijia, TIAN Zheng
		Elevator liability insurance is an important starting point for elevator safety management. Based on the panel data on elevator accident rates, liability insurance premiums, and payment amounts for 31 provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in China from 2010 to 2018, this paper conducts statistical analysis on the impact of elevator liability insurance on the incidence of elevator safety accidents and the rate of liability insurance compensation using the difference-in-differences model since the launch of the insurance pilot zone. The study found that the implementation of elevator liability insurance has no statistically significant impact on the incidence of elevator safety accidents; the market supervision mechanism based on the inability of insurance companies to exert their industry advantages such as “information collection, contract design, and actuarial technology” will be accompanied by problems of corporate moral hazard. But the practical significance of the research in this article shows that the elevator liability insurance has the professional advantages of pre-risk prevention, in-risk risk control and after-sales compensation services in public safety. The healthy development of elevator liability insurance needs to increase its popularity and coverage under the guidance of public safety management departments; meanwhile, it requires insurance companies to actively participate in the pilot, expand the scale of underwriting, accumulate experience data, and improve the responsibility division and pricing mechanism of elevator liability insurance.
		2020 Vol. 37 (5): 169-176 [Abstract] ( 738 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1240KB] ( 933 )

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