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Economic Survey
2025 Vol.42 Issue.5
Published 2025-09-10
3
Exploring on the Pathways of Pollution Reduction and Growth Synergy in Interprovincial Boundary Areas: Evidence from National-Level Urban Agglomeration
YUE Liping, YU Huan
Based on the panel data of 794 interprovincial administrative boundary counties from 2010 to 2022, this paper takes the approval and implementation of national-level urban agglomeration planning as a quasi-natural experiment, and employs a difference-in-differences (DID) strategy to examine the impact of urban agglomeration integration on pollution reduction and growth synergy in the boundary areas. The results show that the implementation of national-level urban agglomeration planning has significantly promoted and improved economic growth and environmental quality in peripheral regions. This conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests, with particularly pronounced effects observed in peripheral regions within optimized and upgraded urban agglomerations and plain areas. The mechanism analysis indicates that the planning of national-level urban agglomerations primarily weakens the limitations of geographical conditions through the effects of transportation connectivity, financial integration and digital interconnection. It also compensates for the deficiencies of market segmentation through the effects of technological innovation-driven growth, industrial structure optimization, and regional environmental co-governance, thereby contributing to a win-win situation in economic and environmental outcomes in the administrative boundary areas.These conclusions help to understand how the urban agglomeration integration strategy affects pollution reduction and growth synergy in border areas in the new era, offering insights for promoting regional green development and achieving high-quality development and high-level protection in the new development stage.
2025 Vol. 42 (5): 3-18 [
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Can the Low-carbon City Pilot Policy Promote the Upgrading of Industrial Structure?
SONG Yang, ZHANG Yue
Using panel data of 247 cities from 2006 to 2022 as the sample, this paper examines the impact of the low-carbon city pilot policy on industrial structure upgrading. The results indicate that the low-carbon city pilot policy significantly promotes industrial structure upgrading. This conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests. The mechanism analysis confirms that the policy significantly enhances the level of industrial structure sophistication, rationalization and ecologization through the effects of technological innovation and incentive mechanisms. The heterogeneity analysis shows that the policy effects are influenced by a city’s level of innovation, carbon emissions and carbon productivity. In cities with high levels of innovation and high carbon emissions, the low-carbon city pilot policy effectively promotes industrial structure upgrading. In cities with strong carbon productivity, the pilot policy more significantly enhances the rationalization and ecologization of the industrial structure. This research has important theoretical and policy significance for further promoting the pilot construction of low-carbon cities and formulating industrial structure upgrading strategies.
2025 Vol. 42 (5): 19-31 [
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Weakening of Administrative Boundaries and Regional Economic Growth: From the Perspective of Interprovincial Circulation
HUANG Haoyi, CHEN Wen
Using the multi-regional input-output table at the city level in China, this study combines the causal inference framework with the value-added decomposition framework to analyze the impact of interprovincial border effects on regional economic growth under interprovincial circulation. The results show that the weakening of administrative boundaries significantly promotes regional economic growth under interprovincial circulation, especially in the eastern region and in provinces with smaller productivity differences and better-developed infrastructure. In terms of the channels of influence, the weakening of interprovincial border effects can promote economic growth under interprovincial circulation by deepening domestic vertical specialization. This is specifically manifested in deepened interregional cooperation, refined division of labor, enhanced comparative advantages and reduced industrial homogenization levels. By employing the regional integration policy in the Yangtze River Delta as a shock for Difference-in-Differences (DID) regression, the above conclusions are confirmed to still hold. Moreover, the weakening of administrative boundaries can also promote economic growth under international circulation by optimizing the patterns of international circulation and reducing exposure to risks. It serves as a powerful means to achieve mutual reinforcement between domestic and international circulation. Therefore, it is necessary to further accelerate the construction of a unified national market, break down regional barriers and ensure the smooth functioning of domestic circulation to achieve high-quality regional economic development.
2025 Vol. 42 (5): 32-46 [
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Whether Digital Rural Construction Can Enhance Agricultural Entrepreneurship Vitality in County Areas: From the Perspective of Entrepreneurial Ecosystem Theory
WANG Yajing, HUANG Huichun
Drawing on the theory of entrepreneurial ecosystems, this study constructs an “opportunity-resource-system” analytical framework. Using the CCAD agricultural enterprise and individual business database and leveraging national and provincial digital rural pilot programs as a quasi-natural experiment, it employs a staggered Difference-in-Differences ( DID ) model to systematically examine the effects and mechanisms through which digital rural construction influences agricultural entrepreneurship activities in county areas. The results show that digital rural construction can significantly increase the activity of agricultural entrepreneurship in counties and plays a role through three mechanisms: expanding agricultural market demand, improving the level of government informatization and promoting resource agglomeration. Further analysis indicates that digital rural construction has a synergistic effect with formal institutions and a substitution effect on informal institutions, thereby effectively increasing agricultural entrepreneurship activity in counties. The extended analysis reveals that digital rural construction not only promotes entrepreneurship in agriculture-related industries but also drives the formalization and performance improvement of entrepreneurial activities, thus significantly fostering high-quality agricultural entrepreneurship. The research conclusions uncover the underlying mechanisms through which digital rural initiatives are embedded into the county-level entrepreneurial ecosystem to influence agricultural entrepreneurial activities. This study advances the in-depth development of entrepreneurship research and provides empirical evidence for stimulating entrepreneurial vitality in counties and cultivating new drivers of economicgrowth.
2025 Vol. 42 (5): 47-60 [
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How Can Energy-saving Target Constraints Promote Agricultural Carbon Emission Reduction?
LU Yiheng, GAO Honggui, HE Meixuan, A Runa
Based on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces over the period 2006-2022, this study dissects the underlying mechanisms through which energy-saving targets influence agricultural carbon emission reductions,and further explores the spatial spillover effects between them. The study shows that energy-saving targets significantly promote agricultural carbon emission reductions but with certain heterogeneity. Specifically, energy-saving targets suppress agricultural carbon emissions in the central and western regions, with a more pronounced effect in non-major grain-producing areas. This carbon reduction effect is primarily achieved by reducing carbon emissions from the use of agricultural inputs, crop cultivation and agricultural energy consumption. The examination of the channels of influence indicates that energy-saving targets achieve agricultural carbon emission reductions through pathways such as improving agricultural energy efficiency, promoting agricultural technological progress and upgrading the rural industrial structure. Fiscal support for agriculture can enhance the carbon emission reduction effect of energy-saving targets, while rural population aging tends to weaken this effect.Further analysis reveals that the impact of energy-saving target constraints on agricultural carbon emissions still has negative spatial spillover effects. The research has policy implications for using energy-saving goals to reduce agricultural carbon emissions.
2025 Vol. 42 (5): 61-74 [
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Whether National Urban Agglomeration Construction Promote the Urban-rural Coordinated Development: Empirical Evidence Based on Double Machine Learning ——Empirical Evidence Based on Double Machine Learning
YIN Zhigao, LI Heng
Drawing on data of 283 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2006 to 2022, this study constructs a quasi-natural experiment based on the approval of national urban agglomeration development plans and employs the double machine learning method to examine the impact of national urban agglomeration construction on coordinated urban-rural development. The results show that the construction of national-level urban agglomerations can narrow the gap between urban and rural development. Among them, promoting the sharing of public services, fostering agricultural technology progress and improving the potential of the agricultural market are important paths for the construction of national-level urban agglomerations to promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas. The heterogeneity analysis indicates that the construction of national urban agglomerations that are developed, polycentric and located in the Yangtze River Basin tends to have a stronger effect on coordinated development. Moreover, the degree of urban-rural development can gap induce the construction of national urban agglomerations to produce an inclusive effect that is akin to “bringing coal to Newcastle”. However, once this gap exceeds a certain threshold, the construction of national urban agglomerations may potentially lead to a further deterioration of the urban-rural development gap. The expansion analysis reveals that the urban-rural coordinated development effect of the national urban agglomeration construction has the spillover feature of “spatially homogeneity”. In addition, the construction of the national urban agglomeration is also conducive to narrowing the economic gap between cities, which has the policy effect of simultaneously promoting the coordinated development of urban-rural and regions. The conclusions provide theoretical guidance and practical reference for further exerting the economic growth effect of urban agglomerations and promoting the urban-rural coordinated development.
2025 Vol. 42 (5): 75-87 [
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Opening of Digital Service Trade and Firm Price Markups
ZHAO Chunming, LIU Shanshan, WANG Zhe
By expanding the MO theoretical framework to build an enterprise production decision-making model that includes digital service elements, the paper theoretically analyzes and empirically tests the impact of opening up digital service trade on enterprise price markups and the intrinsic mechanism. The results show that the opening up of digital service trade contributes to the increase in firms’ price markups. This positive effect remains significant even after a series of robustness tests, including addressing endogeneity, changing variables and eliminating confounding factors. Mechanism testing indicates that the opening up of digital service trade increases corporate price bonuses through two paths: innovation incentives and information governance. In addition, the promotion effect of opening up digital services trade on corporate price markups is more prominent among sample companies with a high degree of digital transformation, high agency costs, non-high-tech industries and highly competitive industries. The conclusions provide important policy reference for promoting high-quality development of the real economy and drawing a beautiful blueprint for “improving quality and efficiency” of enterprises in the current process of accelerating high-level opening up in China.
2025 Vol. 42 (5): 88-100 [
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Study on the Mechanism of New Quality Productive Forces Driving the Upgrading of China’s Regional Dual Value Chains
TUO Caijin, SUN Hui, NIE Rui, YANG Juxing
Based on provincial panel data from 2010 to 2022 and a global multi-regional input-output model, this paper empirically tests the impact and mechanism of new quality productivity on the dual value chain status of various provincial regions in China. The results show that new productivity can help break the dual dilemma of “low-end lock-in” and “high-end lock-in” and achieve the rise of the status of various provinces in China. Mechanism testing indicates that the innovation effect of intermediate goods, the optimization effect of factor allocation and the ultra-large-scale market effect are important channels to promote the rise of China’s dual value chain status. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that digital productivity has become the most important driving force in propelling China’s dual value chain position upward. In regions with higher levels of digital productivity development, especially in the eastern part of China, the role of digital productivity in promoting the ascent of the dual value chain position is even more pronounced. Further analysis manifests that the new quality of productivity can effectively promote the coupling coordination and positive interaction between domestic and global value chains in various provinces, thereby contributing to the formation of a new development pattern. The study offers insights into developing the new quality of productivity and achieving an upward shift in value chain positions.
2025 Vol. 42 (5): 101-117 [
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Urban Agglomeration Construction and Corporate Cross-regional Investment: Empirical Evidence From China’s 19 Major Urban Agglomeration
XU Chaoya, ZHANG Weiguo
Based on the data of parent and subsidiary companies of listed firms on China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share markets from 2003 to 2022, the paper uses the policy events of city agglomerations establishment formally approved by the State Council or provincial people’s governments as quasi-natural experiments, and employs the difference-in-differences method to explore the impact of urban agglomeration construction on corporate cross-regional investments. The results show that the construction of urban agglomerations significantly promotes firms’ out-of-region investments within these agglomerations, and it particularly encourages firms to establish subsidiaries in non-core cities. The heterogeneity analysis indicates that, compared with urban agglomerations in the development stage, the construction of urban agglomerations exerts a more pronounced effect on promoting out-of-region investment by firms located in mature and growth-oriented urban agglomerations. Additionally, compared with firms in technology intensive industries, the construction of urban agglomerations has a more significant impact on promoting out-of-region investment by firms in capital-intensive and labor’intensive industries. Moreover, the effect of urban agglomeration construction on firms’ out-of-region investment does not exhibit heterogeneity based on property rights. The mechanism analysis reveals that firms within urban agglomerations establish subsidiaries in non-core cities to seek lower production factor costs. Further analysis manifests that the construction of urban agglomerations can generate spillover effects on surrounding cities outside the agglomeration, attracting firms to set up subsidiaries in these peripheral cities. The conclusions provide empirical evidence on how to fully leverage the empowering role of urban agglomeration policies in the construction of a unified national market.
2025 Vol. 42 (5): 118-131 [
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Study on the Impact of U.S. Entity List Sanctions on Enterprise Collaborative Innovation
MA Congwen, ZHAN Yong
The study uses the U.S. Entity List sanctions as an exogenous shock, employs data from companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share markets, and applies the difference-in-differences (DID) method to examine the impact of the U.S. Entity List sanctions on collaborative innovation among Chinese firms. The results show that the U.S. Entity List sanctions have accelerated the pace of collaborative innovation among Chinese firms. This conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness and endogeneity tests. Mechanism analysis indicates that U.S. entity list sanctions promote collaborative innovation among China companies by reducing corporate risk-taking levels, curbing short-sighted behavior of managers and promoting the establishment of strategic alliances. Further research finds that the positive impact of the U.S. Entity List sanctions on collaborative innovation among Chinese firms exhibits heterogeneity, which is more pronounced in regions where the legal environment is better, where the influence of Confucian culture is stronger, and in firms that have more patient capital and have undergone greater digital transformation. The study not only deepens the research on the economic consequences of the U.S. Entity List sanctions but also broadens the scope of factors influencing corporate collaborative innovation. In turn, it provides valuable references for China to safeguard its technological security and break through technological blockades.
2025 Vol. 42 (5): 132-145 [
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Study on the Impact of the New Environmental Protection Law of People’s Republic of China on Corporate Green Transformation
HAN Jun, ZHAO Tiantian, WEI Hao
Based on the data of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2023, the paper uses the causal forest method to examine the impact and underlying mechanisms of
the new Environmental Protection Law
on the responsive and authentic green transformation of enterprises. The results show that
the new Environmental Protection Law
has a significant promoting effect on both types of green transformation for enterprises. The heterogeneity analysis indicates that, based on subsample tests, the impact of
the New Environmental Protection Law
on two types of corporate green transformation differs across informal institutions and property rights nature. Based on the causal forest algorithm, it was found that
the New Environmental Protection Law
has heterogeneous individual treatment effects on the two types of green transformation. According to the ranking of feature importance, the relatively important splitting variables obtained show a nonlinear relationship with the two types of corporate green transformation. Mechanism testing reveals that
the New Environmental Protection Law
mainly promotes green transformation of enterprises through three ways: enhancing the environmental attention of the executive team, increasing government environmental subsidies and attracting media attention. The conclusions deepen the theoretical understanding of the implementation effects of
the New Environmental Protection Law
and provide reference value for promoting high-quality development of the green economy. Based on this, it is necessary to accelerate the improvement of the environmental regulation policy system, formulate differentiated regulatory measuresa nd guide more enterprises towards the path of green transformation.
2025 Vol. 42 (5): 146-160 [
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