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Economic Survey
 
2025 Vol.42 Issue.6
Published 2025-11-10

3 How Does the Construction of the Social Credit System Influence the Resilience of the Urban Economy?
ZHANG Rao, CHU Peipei
Taking 246 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2008 to 2023 as the research sample, this study employs a difference-in-differences model to examine the impact and underlying mechanisms of the social credit system construction on urban economic resilience. The results show that the social credit system construction significantly enhances urban economic resilience, and this result remains robust after a series of parallel-trend tests, variables replacement and multi-period PSM-DID analyses. Mechanism analysis indicates that technological innovation-driven development and industrial structure optimization are the primary pathways through which the social credit system enhances urban economic resilience. Moreover, compared to industrial structure rationalization, the mediating effect of industrial structure upgrading is more significant. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the promoting effect of social credit system construction on urban economic resilience is more pronounced in samples from eastern and central regions, areas with higher government transparency, more favorable rule-of-law business environments, and greater abundance of science and education resources. The conclusion highlights the crucial role of a sound credit mechanism in facilitating the smooth operation of the national economy, enhancing economic resilience and vitality, and providing an important reference for the government to continuously promote the construction of the social credit system.
2025 Vol. 42 (6): 3-15 [Abstract] ( 132 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1384KB] ( 11 )
16 Labor Income Share and Household Consumption Inequality: From the Perspective of Skill Differences
MAO Linglin, GUO Xinhua
Based on the data from the China Household Finance Survey ( CHFS ) and in combination with the provincial input-output tables of 2012 and 2017, this study systematically examines the impact of industry labor income share on household consumption inequality and its mechanism, and assesses how skill differences moderates the relationship. The research findings are as follows: Firstly, an increase in the industry's labor income share can effectively reduce household consumption inequality. This conclusion remains robust after a series of tests, including replacing the explained variable, the explanatory variable and considering endogeneity issues; Secondly, the share of industry labor income has more significant inhibitory effect on consumption inequality in the central and western regions, regions with low human capital levels, regions with low artificial intelligence levels, families employed in non-state-owned enterprises, and families with a low proportion of non-wage income; Thirdly, skill differences can regulate the relationship between the share of labor income and household consumption inequality. The increase in the share of labor income will widen the consumption gap among highly skilled workers within the industry, while significantly narrowing the consumption inequality among low-skilled workers. The research findings contribute to understanding the differentiated impact of labor income share growth on household consumption inequality and its underlying mechanisms, offering policy insights for optimizing factor distribution structuresand promoting common prosperity in the new development phase.
2025 Vol. 42 (6): 16-30 [Abstract] ( 121 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1400KB] ( 5 )
31 The Impact of Digital Finance Usage on Farmers' Agricultural Investment and Its Mechanism of Action
MA Yafei, MI Yunsheng, MA Dingchou, LI Deli
Using large-sample household survey data from across China in 2021, this study constructs atheoretical analytical framework of “digital finance usage-transmission mechanism-agricultural investment” to empirically examine the impact of digital finance usage on farmers' agricultural investment and its underlying mechanisms. The results show that the use of digital finance has a significant promoting effect on agriculturalinvestment by farmers. After endogeneity analysis and robustness tests, the above conclusion still holds.The mechanism test reveals that easing financing constraints, broadening information access channels,enhancing financial literacy and raising risk preference levels are the important mechanisms through which the use of digital finance promotes agricultural investment by farmers. Further analysis indicates that digital finance usage significantly boosts both general and specific agricultural investments, with a stronger impact on the latter. Moreover, the impact of digital finance usage on farmers' agricultural investment exhibits a pronounced Matthew effect. Based on above findings, it is suggested that the agricultural digital financial service system be furtherimproved and the financial literacy of farmers be strengthened.
2025 Vol. 42 (6): 31-44 [Abstract] ( 158 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1274KB] ( 5 )
45 How Does the Burden of Support and Care Affect Farmers' Behavior of Transferring Their Farmland out: An Empirical Study Based on Data from the China Land Economy Survey (CLES)
CHEN Liang, LI Gujie, ZHENG Jiancheng, LUO Jianchao
Based on the data of China Land Economic Survey(CLES) in 2022,this paper uses Tobit, mediating effect and moderating effect models to empirically test the effect and mechanism of the burden of support and care on farmers' behavior of transferring their farmland out. The results show that the burden of support and care can inhibit the behavior of farmers transferring their agricultural land. Among them, the negative impact of the burden of support and care on the behavior of farmers transferring their agricultural land is relatively significant, while the impact of the burden of upbringing is not significant. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the burden of support and care has a more significant inhibitory effect on the land transfer behavior of farmers with low income, large-scale operation, no transfer rent and no signed contract. The test for mediation effects reveal that the burden of supporting elderly family members and raising children hinders farmers' decisions to transfer out their farmland by reducing household savings, suppressing the extent of off-farm employment and shortening the distance of such employment. The moderating effect test shows that credit availability plays a positive moderating role in the impact of the burden of support on farmers' behavior of transferring farmland out. The formal credit availability can alleviate the negative impact of the burden of support on farmers' behavior of transferring farmland out, while the moderating effect of informal credit availability is not significant. The policy implications of the above findings are as follows: Efforts should be made to promote the transfer of farmland by farmers by increasing fiscal investment in rural social security, innovating financial credit products and services, developing county-level economies and village collective industries and promoting the market-oriented transformation of farmland circulation.
2025 Vol. 42 (6): 45-58 [Abstract] ( 120 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1351KB] ( 7 )
59 How Do Differences in Data Regulatory Policies Affect the Quality of Digital Product Exports?
CHEN Qianying, LIU Zhizhong
Based on the CEPII and ECIPE-DTE databases, this study examines the impact of data regulation policy differences on the quality of digital product exports. The results show that the expansion of differences in data regulation policies has significantly hindered the quality upgrading of digital product exports. This conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests. Mechanism analysis reveals that differences in data regulation policies primarily hinder the improvement of digital product export quality by increasing trade costs and suppressing technological innovation. However, the digital trade rules of RTA have a moderating effect and can weaken the inhibitory effect of the differences in data regulation policies on the quality upgrading of digital product exports. The heterogeneity analysis indicates that differences in domestic data regulatory policies have a stronger inhibitory effect on the quality upgrading of digital product exports. Specifically, differences in data regulatory policies exert a more significant inhibitory effect on the export quality of the four categories of digital products other than miscellaneous electronic products. Additionally, differences in data regulatory policies among developed countries more notably inhibit the quality upgrading of digital product exports. The conclusion provides a reference basis for the establishment of a high-level data governance system and the construction of a digital trade power in the context of institutionalized opening up in China.
2025 Vol. 42 (6): 59-72 [Abstract] ( 143 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1279KB] ( 11 )
73 How Does Institutional Opening-up Affect the “Quantity Increase and Quality Improvement” of China's Export Trade: A Case Study of Pilot Free Trade Zones
LIU Chenyang, YANG Dingziwei
Based on the data of 275 prefecture-level cities from 2011 to 2023, this paper uses a multi-period difference-in-differences and mediation model to investigate the impact of institutional open innovation on the scale and quality of urban export trade. The results show that the policies of the free trade pilot zones can promote the “Quantity Increase and Quality Improvement” of China's export trade. The results of the mechanism test indicate that Pilot Free Trade Zones expand the scale of exports through effects such as technological innovation, industrial upgrading and optimized factor allocation, while improving export quality through measures like technological innovation, optimized business environment and more vibrant markets. The heterogeneity analysis results further reveal that the pilot free trade zone has a positive impact on the export scale of cities with different geographical locations and financial development levels, but the impact is not significant in cities with high dependence on foreign trade. The pilot free trade zone has a positive impact on the export quality of cities with different levels of rationalization of industrial structure, population size and government expenditure, but the impact is not significant in cities with lower levels of public services, economic scale and advanced industrial structure. The research provides empirical evidence that openness promotes high-quality development of export trade, which can offer theoretical support and decision-making references for advancing the construction of a new system for a higher-level open economy.
2025 Vol. 42 (6): 73-88 [Abstract] ( 141 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1775KB] ( 8 )
89 Can the Pilot Policy for New Energy Vehicles Help Cities Achieve Synergistic Effects in Pollution Reduction and Carbon Emission Reduction?
JIANG Hao, DENG Feng
Taking the pilot policy for new energy vehicles as a quasi-natural experiment and utilizing panel data from 282 Chinese cities from 2004 to 2021, this study employs a multi-period difference-in-differences model to examine the impact of the new energy vehicle pilot policy on urban synergies between pollution reduction and carbon emission reduction. The study shows that the pilot policy for new energy vehicles has promoted the synergistic effects of pollution reduction and carbon emission reduction in cities, and this conclusion remains valid after a series of tests. The heterogeneity analysis indicates that the pilot policy for new energy vehicles has a stronger synergistic effect on pollution reduction and carbon emission reduction in cities with a low thermal power generation structure, cities with a high level of intelligent transportation, and cities in the “acid rain or sulfur dioxide” control zones. From the perspective of transmission mechanism, pilot policies for new energy vehicles can help cities achieve synergistic efficiency in reducing pollution and carbon emissions through three channels: promoting technological progress, optimizing energy structure and guiding green investment. An expansive analysis reveals that the pilot policy for new energy vehicles has a significant positive spatial spillover effect on the coordinated reduction of pollution and carbon emissions in cities, mainly achieved by enhancing joint innovation capabilities and attracting green investors to enter. Therefore, we should continue to deepen the construction of pilot cities for new energy vehicles and use new clean transportation tools to help cities achieve sustainable development goals.
2025 Vol. 42 (6): 89-102 [Abstract] ( 129 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1642KB] ( 6 )
103 Research on the Transmission Mechanism of Returning Home for Entrepreneurship Driving County-Level Industrial Structure Upgrading from the Perspective of Comprehensive Rural Revitalization: An Empirical Analysis Based on Pilot Counties of Returning Home for Entrepreneurship
YANG Huimin, ZHU Jiguang
Based on the county-level panel data of 1,540 counties across 27 provinces in China from 2001 to 2022, this paper uses a multi-time difference in differences ( DID ) system to evaluate the transmission mechanism of the pilot policies of returning home for entrepreneurship on the upgrading of county-level industrial structure. The results show that the pilot policies of returning home for entrepreneurship have a significant promoting effect on the upgrading of county-level industrial structure, which can increase the level of industrial structure upgrading in pilot counties by 1.5 percentage points. Returning home for entrepreneurship can effectively promote the upgrading and rationalization of county-level industrial structure through multi-dimensional transmission mechanisms such as improving economic agglomeration and innovation levels, enhancing localized consumption demand on the consumption side, and providing financial support on the support side. Heterogeneity tests reveal that the promotional effect of these policies on the upgrading of county-level industrial structure varies significantly across different regions. The policies effects are significant in the eastern and western regions, while no significant positive impact is observed in the central region. Therefore, this paper suggests that efforts can be made to improve policies for returning home for entrepreneurship, strengthen the construction of county-level financial systems, promote the upgrading of industrial structure in light of local conditions, and take multiple measures to support the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas, the high-quality development of county economies and the promotion of coordinated regional development.
2025 Vol. 42 (6): 103-115 [Abstract] ( 168 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1786KB] ( 9 )
116 Data Resource Information Disclosure and Corporate Commercial Credit Financing
JING Rui, QI Baolei, SUN Zeyu
Data resources are the main carriers of data elements. The management, application and effective disclosure of data resources have a significant impact on the financing behavior of enterprises. Based on the data of A-share listed companies on Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2007 to 2023, this paper examines the impact of data resource information disclosure on corporate commercial credit financing. The results indicate that data resource information disclosure can significantly enhance the level of corporate commercial credit financing. Mechanism analysis shows that data resource information disclosure can improve corporate information transparency and enhance corporate reputation, thereby exerting a positive effect on corporate commercial credit financing. Cross-sectional analysis reveals that the positive effect of data resource information disclosure on corporate commercial credit financing is more pronounced in companies with higher economic policy uncertainty, lower market positions, greater financing constraints and poorer audit quality. This paper not only provides a useful reference for listed companies to fully explore the value of data resources, promote the realization of data resources value and improve financing decisions, but also offers enlightenment and lessons for improving the information disclosure system with Chinese characteristics.
2025 Vol. 42 (6): 116-132 [Abstract] ( 115 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1298KB] ( 16 )
133 How Does Shareholder Networks Stability Inhibit Corporate Misconduct: Based on Dynamic Social Network Analysis Method
QIU Xuemei, ZHANG Xuehua
Based on the dynamic social network analysis, this paper empirically examines the impact and mechanism of shareholder network stability on corporate misconduct using data from Chinese A-share listed enterprises from 2008-2023. The regression results show that the stability of the shareholder network significantly inhibits enterprise's misconduct, and this conclusion is also hold after a series of robustness tests. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that compared to enterprises with low network but high stability, enterprises with high network and stability have fewer violations. Moreover, in the samples of state-owned enterprises, highly competitive industries and low marketization, the negative correlation between the stability of the shareholder network and company's misconduct is more significant. Further analysis reveals that the stability of a company's shareholder network alleviates financing constraints and improves enterprise governance, thereby inhibiting enterprise misconduct. This study not only enriches the theoretical research in the direction of social networks and corporate misconduct, but also provides new perspectives for the regulation of capital markets. In particular, the proposed concept of shareholder network stability provides new perspectives and methods for future research on dynamic network analysis.
2025 Vol. 42 (6): 133-146 [Abstract] ( 130 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1284KB] ( 5 )
147 Public Data Openness and Enterprise Supply Chain Resilience
SONG Yongchao, ZHOU Guangliang
Taking the launch of government data platforms as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper examines A-share listed firms from 2010 to 2023 and employs a difference-in-differences model to test the economic consequences of open public data. It further explores how open public data affects corporate supply-chain resilience through two mechanisms: facilitating firms' utilization of data as a production input and enhancing their risk-taking levels. The results show that public data openness has a significant promoting effect on enterprise supply chain resilience, and this conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests. Mechanism analysis indicates that public data openness enhances the resilience of enterprise supply chains through a dual path of promoting the utilization of data elements and improving risk-taking levels. Further heterogeneity analysis reveals that the positive effect of open public data on corporate supply-chain resilience is stronger for firms with a lower degree of digital transformation or for non-high-tech firms, indicating that open public data helps bridge the “ digital divide ”. The effect is also more pronounced when firms are located in regions of higher administrative rank. The research conclusion expands the value creation effect of public data openness, providing empirical evidence and decision-making reference for continuously promoting public data openness to enhance the resilience of enterprise supply chains.
2025 Vol. 42 (6): 147-160 [Abstract] ( 136 ) [HTML 1KB] [ PDF 1378KB] ( 10 )
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