Abstract Using stochastic dynamic optimization, this paper first includes uncertainty in building the land transfer price model for state-owned land. Then it carries out an econometrical analysis of state-owned land transfer price using provincial spatial dynamic panel data. The findings of empirical analysis are:(1) There exists space-time dynamic effect in the state-owned land transfer price;(2) Economic development raises the transfer price for state-owned land while the uncertainty of economic development reduces that price; (3) Rent for agricultural land and the proportion of agricultural land area to total land area have negative effects on unit transfer price of state-owned land. Therefore, the government should strengthen dynamic budget management of land transfer income and pay due attention to the spatial association of land transfer among different regions.
2017, Vol. 34 
