A Predictive Study on China’s Labor Supply Under the Universal “Two-Child” Policy
LONG Xiao-jun 1,3,4, ZHENG Jian-song 2, LI Xiao-jian 1，4
1.School of Geography and Tourism, Guangdong University of Finance & Economics， Guangzhou 510220， China； 2.School of Statistics and Mathematics, Guangdong University of Finance & Economics， Guangzhou 510220， China; 3.Research Center of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, China; 4.Collaborative Innovation Center of Urban-Rural Coordinated Development, Henan University of Economics and Law Henan, Zhengzhou 450002, China
Abstract With the implementation of “Two-Child” Policy, this paper combines an assumption of demographic parameter, especially the total fertility rate and fertility model, with projected labor participation rate, adopts cohort component population prediction methods and PADIS-INT system in an effort to forecast the future trends in labor supply. The result shows that the scale of the labor force begin to shrink in about 2015 and goes down fast after 2025. It is predicted that the proportion of middle and old age labor aging from 45 to 64 will be larger than that of labor aging from 25 to 44 between the years of 2030 and 2035. The aging trend of the internal structure of labor force is becoming increasingly obvious. The implementation of the Universal “Two-child” Policy will to some extent slow down the shrinking trend in future labor supply and reduce the speed of aging in labor force structure.
LONG Xiao-Jun,ZHENG Jian-Song,LI Xiao-Jian-. A Predictive Study on China’s Labor Supply Under the Universal “Two-Child” Policy. Economic Survey, 2017, 34(5): 0128.
2017, Vol. 34 
