The Dynamic Evolution of Regional Discrepancy in the Total Factor Productivity of Provinces
ZHANG Jian sheng 1，2
（1.School of Economics and Management， Chongqing Three Gorges University， Chongqing 404000， China; 2.School of Economics and Management， Southwest Jiaotong University, chengdu 610031, China）
Abstract Based on an evaluation of the total factor productivity in each province of China with Solow surplus value method, the author made an analysis of the dynamic evolution of the regional differences in the total factor productivity with the nonparameter Kernel density function and Markov chain. The results show that the difference in the total factor productivity of different provinces of our country is great, and it presents a gradient distribution situation of gradual decrease from the east to the west; the absolute disparity between different regions displayed a shrinking trend in the 1980s, and it has been ascending since 1990s; meanwhile, the distribution of the Kernel density function displayed a “twin peaks ”convergence trend, which further showed a severe polarization of total factor productivity; from the steady distribution of Markov chain, the total factor productivity of each region will continue to show great discrepancy and it is hard to realize balanced development in a short term.
2011, Vol. 28 
