Elderly Care for Rural Household and Transfer of Agricultural Land: Policy Effect Evaluation Based on Long-term Care Insurance Pilot
WANG Zhaolin1, CHEN Wenjuan1, LYU Qiuhang2, ZENG Wei1
1. Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle Construction Research Institute,Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China; 2. Institute of Finance and Economics,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433, China
Abstract Based on panel data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) across four waves from 2014 to 2020, the paper regards the long-term care insurance pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment and employs a Difference-in-Differences (DID) model to evaluate the policy effects of long-term care insurance on the transfer of agricultural land. The findings are as follows: (1) The implementation of the long-term insurance pilot policy has promoted the transfer behavior of rural children's farmland. After a series of robustness tests, this conclusion is still valid: (2) Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effect of the long-term care insurance pilot policy on promoting the transfer of agricultural land among rural offspring is more significant in groups with high human capital, young female groups, low-income levels, and families with disabled elderly; ( 3 ) Mechanism analysis reveals that the implementation of the long-term care insurance pilot policy can facilitate the transfer of agricultural land by alleviating the burden of elderly care on rural offspring and promoting off-farm employment; (4) Extended analysis shows that the implementation of the long-term care insurance pilot policy has a suppressive effect on the agricultural land acquisition behavior of rural offspring, but it does not produce an “anchoring effect” on the rural offspring. Therefore, guiding the development of the agricultural land transfer market by improving the social elderly care service system in rural areas, alleviating the burden of family care, and promoting non-agricultural employment for rural households will be an important pathway to achieving modernization in agriculture and rural development.
WANG Zhaolin,CHEN Wenjuan,LYU Qiuhang et al. Elderly Care for Rural Household and Transfer of Agricultural Land: Policy Effect Evaluation Based on Long-term Care Insurance Pilot. Economic Survey, 2025, 42(1): 041.
2025, Vol. 42 
