Population Aging, Industrial Structure and Labor Income Share
WU Yutong1, LU Xianfeng1, LI Jun2
1. School of Applied Economics, University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 102488, China; 2. Institute of Quantitative & Technological Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100732, China
Abstract Based on China's inter-provincial panel data from 1994 to 2017, this paper uses the threshold effect model of industrial structure to highlight the nonlinear impact of population aging on labor income expenditures from the perspective of industrial structure. The results show that during the sample period, the impact of population aging on labor income share exhibits a nonlinear transition from negative to positive, with industrial structure playing a crucial moderating role. Specifically, when the ratio of the tertiary industry to the secondary industry exceeds 0.871, the effect of population aging on labor income share shifts from negative to positive. In the negative impact stage, population aging affects labor income share through both the “relative price” and “relative quantity” channels of labor capital. However, in the positive impact stage, the “relative quantity” channel is no longer significant, and population aging primarily influences labor income share through the “relative price” channel. Heterogeneity tests indicate that in regions with higher marketization levels and economic development, the positive shift in the impact of population aging on labor income share is more pronounced.
2024, Vol. 41 
