Is Service Trade a New Engine for “Stabilizing Employment”: Evidence from Pilot Zone of Innovative Development of Service Trade
CHENG Zhonghai1,2, QIAO Zhihong2
1. China < Xinjiang > Border Trade Research Center, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China; 2. School of Economics and Management, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China
Abstract Based on panel data from 285 cities at prefecture level and above in China from 2007 to 2021, the paper uses the pilot zone of innovative development of trade in services as a quasi-natural experiment for the development of trade in services to examine the causal effect of the development of trade in services on the scale of labor employment and employment structure. The results show that the pilot construction of innovative development of trade in services can significantly expand the scale of employment and optimize the employment structure at the industrial and skill levels. After a series of robustness tests such as overcoming endogenous problems, eliminating heterogeneity treatment effects, and controlling urban characteristics and free trade pilot zone policies, this conclusion is still valid. Mechanism testing indicates that the development of service trade can have an impact on employment scale through export growth, increased entrepreneurial activity and labor mobility channels, and can also affect employment structure through advanced industrial structure and technological innovation. Heterogeneity analysis manifests that the employment effect of service trade innovation pilot policies is more obvious in cities with higher administrative levels, more advantageous geographical locations, and higher levels of economic development and digital economy development. Spatial effect analysis shows that the employment effect of the pilot policy for innovative development of trade in services has spatial spillover effects. The conclusion provides important policy implications for promoting “stable employment” through the high-quality development of service trade.
CHENG Zhonghai,QIAO Zhihong. Is Service Trade a New Engine for “Stabilizing Employment”: Evidence from Pilot Zone of Innovative Development of Service Trade. Economic Survey, 2024, 41(4): 080.
2024, Vol. 41 
