区域FTA网络结构演变、第三方效应及其对中国的影响

摘要全球自由贸易协定结构在向复杂化、多极化和网络化的趋势发展,使得单边或者双边视角下的分析方法不足以解释现阶段区域FTA格局变迁。以RCEP成员国为主体构建了区域FTA网络,分析了网络结构演变及重要经济体的贸易地位变迁,通过二次指派回归方法(QAP回归)揭示了网络形成机理,并采用动态建模方法模拟中国在不同时期加入CPTPP,从而讨论了区域FTA网络及中国贸易地位的演化规律。研究发现:(1)区域FTA网络整体密度不高但日趋紧密,美国的重返亚太战略使得区域FTA关系产生结构性变化。(2)各国(地区)的网络中心性排名结果表明TPP削弱了中国与东盟的区域地位与影响力,并拉大了东盟成员国之间的差距,而RCEP在一定程度缓解了TPP的负面作用。(3)区域FTA网络结构变化推动了第三方效应的升级(三角结构),同时双边国家(地区)三角结构数量的差异会对签订FTA产生促进作用。(4)模拟中国加入CPTPP的效应,结果表明未来中国加入CPTPP能够提升其在区域FTA网络中的地位。

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关键词： FTA网络 QAP分析 RCEP CPTPP 第三方效应

Abstract： The global free trade agreement structure is developing towards the trend of complexity, multi-polarization and networking, so that the analysis methods from unilateral or bilateral perspectives are not enough to explain the changes of regional FTA pattern at this stage. On the basis of the current research, this paper constructs the regional FTA network with the member countries of RCEP as the main body, analyzes the evolution of the network structure and the changes of the trade status of important economies, reveals the formation mechanism of the network through the quadratic assignment regression method (QAP regression), and uses the dynamic modeling method to simulate China’s accession to the CPTPP in different periods, thus discussing the evolution law of the regional FTA network and China’s trade status. The results are as follows: (1) The overall density of the FTA network is not high, but it is getting closer and closer. The United States’ strategy of returning to the Asia-Pacific region has brought about structural changes in the regional FTA relationship; (2) The results of network centrality ranking of countries (regions) show that TPP weakens the regional status and influence of China and ASEAN, and widens the gap between ASEAN members, while RCEP alleviates the negative effects of TPP to some extent; (3) The change of regional FTA network structure promotes the upgrading of the third-party effect (triangular structure). At the same time, the difference in the number of triangular structure between bilateral countries (regions) will promote the signing of FTA; (4) The dynamic model is used to simulate the process of China’s entry into CPTPP, and the results show that China’s accession to CPTPP in the future can enhance its status in the regional FTA network.

Keywords： FTA Networks QAP Analysis RCEP CPTPP Third-party Effects

收稿日期 2021-12-03; 接受日期 ;

基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目(72073013);国家社会科学基金重大项目(21&ZD086);上海长三角科创产业金融服务协同创新中心课题“临港新片区金融聚集区建设与金融业集聚提升路径研究”

通讯作者 王强(1985— ),男,四川简阳人,博士研究生,主要从事教育管理研究。

作者简介: 吴宗柠(1993— ),男,福建宁德人,博士研究生,主要从事国际贸易网络; 蔡宏波(1982— ),男,河南开封人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事国际贸易研究; 王强为本文通信作者。

引用本文:

吴宗柠, 蔡宏波, 王强.区域FTA网络结构演变、第三方效应及其对中国的影响[J]. 经济经纬, 2022,4: 62-73

WU Zongning, CAI Hongbo, WANG Qiang.The Evolution of Regional FTA Network Structure, the Third-party Effects and Its Influence on China[J] Economic Survey, 2022,V39(4): 62-73

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2022/V39/I4/62

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